Se puede analizar estadísticamente una serie de caudales máximos anuales en un tramo de arroyo para estimar las crecidas de 100 años y las crecidas de otros intervalos de recurrencia allí. Estimaciones similares de muchos sitios en una región hidrológicamente similar pueden relacionarse con características medibles de cada cuenca de drenaje para permitir la estimación indirecta de los intervalos de recurrencia de inundaciones para tramos de arroyos sin datos suficientes para el análisis directo.
Los modelos de procesos físicos de tramos de canales generalmente se comprenden bien y calcularán la profundidad y el área de inundación para las condiciones del canal dadas y una tasa de flujo específica, como para su uso en el mapeo de llanuras aluviales y seguros contra inundaciones. Por el contrario, dada la zona de inundación observada de una inundación reciente y las condiciones del canal, un modelo puede calcular la tasa de flujo. Aplicado a varias configuraciones de canales potenciales y caudales, un modelo de alcance puede contribuir a seleccionar un diseño óptimo para un canal modificado. Varios modelos de alcance están disponibles a partir de 2015, ya sea modelos 1D (niveles de inundación medidos en el canal) o modelos 2D (profundidades de inundación variables medidas a lo largo de la extensión de una llanura de inundación). HEC-RAS,[17] el modelo del Centro de Ingeniería Hidráulica, es uno de los software más populares, aunque sólo sea porque está disponible de forma gratuita. Otros modelos, como TUFLOW,[18] combinan componentes 1D y 2D para derivar las profundidades de las inundaciones a lo largo de los canales de los ríos y de toda la llanura aluvial.
Los modelos de procesos físicos de cuencas de drenaje completas son aún más complejos. Aunque muchos procesos se comprenden bien en un punto o para un área pequeña, otros no se comprenden bien en todas las escalas y las interacciones de los procesos en condiciones climáticas normales o extremas pueden ser desconocidas. Los modelos de cuenca típicamente combinan componentes del proceso de la superficie terrestre (para estimar cuánta lluvia o deshielo llega a un canal) con una serie de modelos de alcance. Por ejemplo, un modelo de cuenca puede calcular el hidrograma de escorrentía que podría resultar de una tormenta de 100 años, aunque el intervalo de recurrencia de una tormenta rara vez es igual al de la inundación asociada. Los modelos de cuenca se utilizan comúnmente en la predicción y alerta de inundaciones, así como en el análisis de los efectos del cambio de uso de la tierra y el cambio climático.
Flood forecast
Anticipating floods before they occur allows you to take precautions and warn people[19] so they can be prepared in advance for flood conditions. For example, farmers can remove animals from low-lying areas and utilities can implement emergency provisions to redirect services if necessary. Emergency services can also take steps to have sufficient resources available in advance to respond to emergencies as they occur. People can evacuate areas that will be flooded.
To make flood forecasts more accurate for waterways, it is best to have a long historical data series that relates stream flows to past measured rainfall events.[20] Combining this historical information with real-time knowledge about volumetric capacity in catchment areas, such as reserve capacity in reservoirs, groundwater levels, and the degree of saturation of area aquifers, is also necessary to make flooding more accurate. precise. forecasts.
Radar estimates of rainfall and general weather forecasting techniques are also important components of a good flood forecast. In areas where good quality data is available, the intensity and height of a flood can be predicted with fairly good accuracy and a long lead time. The output of a flood forecast is typically an expected maximum water level and the probable time of its arrival at key locations along a waterway,[21] and may also allow calculation of the probable statistical return period of a flood. In many developed countries, urban areas at risk of flooding are protected against a 100-year flood, that is, a flood that has about a 63% chance of occurring in any 100-year time period.
According to the US National Weather Service (NWS) Northeast River Forecast Center (RFC) in Taunton, Massachusetts, a general rule of thumb for flood forecasting in urban areas is that at least 25 mm of rain is needed in about an hour. time to initiate significant water ponding on impervious surfaces. Many NWS RFCs routinely issue Flash Flood Guidance and Headwater Guidance, which indicate the general amount of rain that would need to fall in a short period of time to cause flash flooding or flooding in larger watersheds.[22].
In the United States, an integrated approach to real-time computer hydrological modeling uses observed data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS),[23] several cooperative observing networks,[24] several automated weather sensors, the NOAA National Operational Hydrological Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC),[25] several hydropower companies, etc., combined with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) of expected rainfall and/or snowmelt to generate forecasts. hydrological forecasts affecting both the United States and Canada, such as the St. Lawrence Seaway area.
The Global Flood Monitoring System, "GFMS", a computer tool that maps flood conditions around the world, is available online. Users anywhere in the world can use GFMS to determine when flooding may occur in their area. GFMS uses precipitation data from NASA's Earth observation satellites and the Global Precipitation Measurement Satellite, 'GPM'. GPM precipitation data is combined with a land surface model that incorporates vegetation cover, soil type, and terrain to determine how much water is being absorbed by the soil and how much water is flowing into the stream flow.
Users can view rainfall, flow, water depth and flood statistics every 3 hours, at every 12 kilometer grid point on a global map. The forecasts for these parameters are 5 days in the future. Users can zoom to view flood maps (areas estimated to be covered with water) at 1 kilometer resolution.[26][27].
• - Annex: List of significant floods.
• - Water supply.
• - Riverside defense.
• - River dynamics.
• - Flash flood.
• - Speck.
• - Diversion dam.
• - Sanitation.
• - Drought.
• - Rainwater collection system.
• - Tropical storm.
• - Tsunami.
• - Wiktionary has definitions and other information about flood.
• - Wikimedia Commons hosts a multimedia gallery on Flood.
• - Spanish - King County Flood Safety Video. (Archived November 8, 2014 at the Wayback Machine.) King County Flood Control District, King County, Washington State, United States - (Available on YouTube) .