Theory of change
Introduction
A theory of change is a methodology to graphically present, with a causal logic, the objectives that an intervention seeks to achieve and the specific way in which it is proposed to achieve them. This method is used as a planning tool, but it is also useful for designing and evaluating programs and interventions, especially with a social focus.[1].
When used for planning and design purposes, a properly developed theory of change is the result of a creative, rigorous and participatory process in which the actors involved articulate their objectives and the actions required to carry them out.[1].
Every social program is implicitly or explicitly based on a theory about how and why the program works or is intended to work.[2] For example, a program that offers subsidies to low-income families in exchange for them sending their children to school, has behind it the theory that such money will encourage parents to continue taking their children to school, so that they will have more schooling in the future and this higher schooling will translate into more income, allowing them to escape poverty. A theory of change would be the graphic representation of this process of interventions, assumptions and objectives to be met.
For this reason, the theory of change is also a method used to carry out an evaluation of the causal logic followed by social interventions. This type of evaluation will try to detach and trace these chains of actions and objectives in the most precise way possible, identifying all the assumptions and connections in the causal logic of the program. The objective of this type of evaluation is to examine to what extent the causal theory that supports the program is valid and if there are weaknesses in it that call for modifying elements of the program design. An evaluation of this type should be able to show which of the assumptions underlying the logic of the program's intervention are met or not and whether the causal relationships it poses between what the program does and what it aims to achieve are supported by evidence.[2].
A theory of change describes how interventions carried out by a program or organization produce the results necessary to cause the expected change. In general, changes are the result of a complex network of activities that must be carried out. Thus, the theory of change provides a working model that shows causality and, therefore, represents a framework against which hypotheses can be tested about which actions best produce a result.[1].
Using the theory of change method allows us to know what an intervention does, why and for what purpose it does it since each result is explicitly defined and linked to the actions that seek to lead to it. Therefore, one of the advantages of this method is the flexibility it has to monitor the causal chains of social programs and, if they are not met, be able to make the necessary changes in the design of the programs.