The development of photovoltaic solar energy in the world
Entre los años 2001 y 2016 se ha producido un crecimiento exponencial de la producción fotovoltaica, duplicándose aproximadamente cada dos años.[122] La potencia total fotovoltaica instalada en el mundo (conectada a red) ascendía a 16 gigavatios (GW) en 2008, 40 GW en 2010, 100 GW en 2012, 180 GW en 2014, 300 GW en 2016 y 500 GW en 2018.[123][124][125][126][127][9][10].
Históricamente, Estados Unidos lideró la instalación de energía fotovoltaica desde sus inicios hasta 1996, cuando su capacidad instalada alcanzaba los 77 MW, más que cualquier otro país hasta la fecha. En los años posteriores, fueron superados por Japón, que mantuvo el liderato hasta que a su vez Alemania la sobrepasó en 2005, manteniendo el liderato desde entonces. A comienzos de 2016, Alemania se aproximaba a los 40 GW instalados.[130] Sin embargo, por esas fechas China, uno de los países donde la fotovoltaica está experimentando un crecimiento más vertiginoso superó a Alemania, convirtiéndose desde entonces en el mayor productor de energía fotovoltaica del mundo.[130] Se espera que multiplique su potencia instalada actual hasta los 200 GW en 2020.[128][131][132].
World production
The total installed capacity already represents a significant fraction of the electricity mix in the European Union, covering on average 3.5% of electricity demand and reaching 7% in periods of highest production.[127] In some countries, such as Germany,[133][134] Italy,[135][136][137][note 5] United Kingdom[138] or Spain,[139] it reaches higher maximums. 10%, just like in Japan[140] or in some sunny states in the United States, such as California.[141] The annual production of electrical energy generated by this energy source worldwide was equivalent in 2015 to about 184 TWh, enough to supply the energy needs of millions of homes and covering approximately 1% of global electricity demand.[127].
China
Photovoltaics has become one of the largest industries in the People's Republic of China. The Asian country is the world leader in photovoltaic capacity, with an installed power of more than 170 GW at the beginning of 2019.[142] It also has about 400 photovoltaic companies, among which Trina Solar, Jinko Solar and JA Solar, global giants in the manufacturing of solar panels, stand out. In 2014, it produced approximately half of the photovoltaic products manufactured in the world (China and Taiwan together account for more than 60% share). The production of photovoltaic panels and cells in China has increased significantly over the last decade: in 2001 it maintained a share of less than 1% of the world market, while at the same time, Japan and the United States accounted for more than 70% of world production. However, the trend has reversed and China currently far surpasses the rest of the producers.
Chinese solar panel production capacity practically quadrupled between 2009 and 2011, even exceeding global demand. As a result, the European Union accused the Chinese industry of dumping, that is, selling its panels at prices below cost, imposing tariffs on the import of this material.[143][144].
The installation of photovoltaic energy has developed spectacularly in the Asian country in recent years, even exceeding initial forecasts. Due to such rapid growth, Chinese authorities have been forced to reevaluate their photovoltaic power target on several occasions.
The total installed power in China grew to 77 GW at the end of 2016, after connecting 36 GW in the last year, according to the country's official statistics.[145] In 2017, China had exceeded the objective set by the government for 2020, a photovoltaic power of 100 GW.[146] Therefore, at the end of 2018 it was announced that China could raise its solar target to 2020 to more than 200 GW.[147].
This growth reflects the abrupt decline in the costs of photovoltaic energy, which is currently beginning to be a cheaper option than other energy sources, both at retail and commercial prices. Chinese government sources have stated that photovoltaics will have more competitive prices than coal and gas (also providing greater energy independence) by the end of this decade.[148].
USA
Since 2010, the United States has been one of the countries with the most activity in the photovoltaic market, it has large companies in the sector, such as First Solar or SolarCity, as well as numerous grid connection plants. At the beginning of 2017, the United States exceeded 40 GW of installed photovoltaic power,[149] enough to provide electricity to more than 8 million homes, after doubling its solar capacity in less than two years.[150].
Although the United States does not maintain a uniform national energy policy across the country regarding photovoltaics, many states have individually set renewable energy goals, including solar energy in different proportions in this planning. In this sense, California Governor Jerry Brown has signed legislation requiring that 33% of the state's electricity be generated by renewable energy by the end of 2020.[151] These measures have been supported by the federal government with the adoption of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), a tax exemption established in 2006 to promote the development of photovoltaic projects, and which has recently been extended until 2023.[152].
A private report[153] states that photovoltaic solar energy has expanded rapidly over the last 8 years, growing at an average of 40% each year. Thanks to this trend, the cost of the kWh produced by photovoltaic energy has been greatly reduced, while the cost of electricity generated by fossil fuels has continued to increase. As a result, the report concludes that PV will reach grid parity with conventional energy sources in many regions of the United States by 2015. But to achieve a 10% energy market share, the report continues, PV companies will need to further streamline installations, so that solar becomes a plug-and-play technology. That is, it is easy to acquire the components of each system and their interconnection is simple, as is their connection to the network.[153].
Currently, most facilities are connected to the grid and use net balancing systems that allow nighttime electricity consumption from energy generated during the day. New Jersey leads the States with the least restrictive net balancing law,[154] while California leads the total number of homes with solar energy. Many of them were installed during the million solar roof initiative.[155].
The current trend and growth rate indicate that in the coming years a large number of photovoltaic plants will be built in the south and southwest of the country, where available land is abundant, in the sunny deserts of California, Nevada and Arizona. Companies are increasingly acquiring large areas in these areas, with the intention of building larger large-scale plants.[156].
Japan
Photovoltaic energy in Japan has expanded rapidly since the 1990s. The country is one of the leaders in the manufacturing of photovoltaic modules and is among the first in terms of installed power, with more than 23 GW at the end of 2014, most of it connected to the grid.[157][158][159] Irradiance in Japan is optimal, standing between 4.3 and 4.8 kWh·m²·day, making it an ideal country for the development of this type of energy.
The sale of photovoltaic modules for commercial projects has grown rapidly following the introduction by the Japanese Government in July 2012 of a tariff to encourage photovoltaics following the Fukushima nuclear accident and the paralysis of most of the country's nuclear power plants.
The majority of modules come from local manufacturers, among which Kyocera, Sharp Corporation, Mitsubishi or Sanyo stand out, while a small part are imported, according to data from the Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPA). 2012.[161] Although this trend is reversing, still more than 75% of the cells and modules sold in Japan at the beginning of 2012 were destined for residential projects, while about 9% were used in commercial photovoltaic installations.[162].
In 2014, the total photovoltaic power installed in the country was around 23 GW, which contributed approximately 2.5% to the country's electricity demand.[127] During the summer of 2015, it was reported that photovoltaic production in Japan had at certain times covered 10% of the total national demand.[140] Two years later, in 2016, it was around 42 GW,[149] and the forecast suggests that the Japanese photovoltaic market will grow even more in the coming years.[163].
Germany
At the beginning of 2016, Germany has an installed capacity of around 40 GW.[130] In 2011 alone, Germany installed around 7.5 GW,[164] and photovoltaics produced 18 TW·h of electricity, 3% of the total consumed in the country.[134][165].
The photovoltaic market in Germany has grown considerably since the beginning of the century thanks to the creation of a regulated tariff for the production of renewable energy, which was introduced by the "German Renewable Energy Act", a law published in 2000. Since then, the cost of photovoltaic installations has fallen by more than 50% in five years, since 2006.[166] Germany has set the goal of producing 35% of its electricity through renewable energies in 2020 and reach 100% in 2050.[167].
In 2012, the introduced tariffs cost Germany around €14 billion per year for both wind and solar installations. This cost is distributed among all taxpayers through an additional cost of €3.6 cents per kWh[168] (approximately 15% of the total cost of electricity for the domestic consumer).[169].
The considerable power installed in Germany has set several records in recent years. During two consecutive days in May 2012, for example, the solar photovoltaic plants installed in the country produced 22,000 MWh in the midday hour, which is equivalent to the generating power of twenty nuclear power plants working at full capacity.[170][note 6] Germany shattered this record on July 21, 2013, with an instantaneous power of 24 GW at noon.[171][172] Due to the highly distributed nature of German PV, approximately 1.3-1.4 million small PV systems contributed to this new record. Approximately 90% of the solar panels installed in Germany are located on roofs.[173].
In June 2014, German photovoltaics once again broke records for several days, producing up to 50.6% of all electricity demand during a single day, and surpassing the previous record for instantaneous power to 24.24 GW.[174][175][176].
At the beginning of summer 2011, the German Government announced that the current regulated tariff scheme would end when installed power reached 52 GW. When this happens, Germany will apply a new injection tariff scheme, the details of which are not yet known.[177].
However, aware that energy storage through batteries is essential for the massive deployment of renewables such as wind energy or photovoltaics, given their intermittency, on May 1, 2013, Germany launched a new aid program to encourage photovoltaic systems with storage batteries.[178] In this way, photovoltaic installations under 30 kW that install batteries and accumulate electricity are financed with 660 euros. for each kW of battery storage. The program is endowed with 25 million euros annually distributed in 2013 and 2014, and in this way energy is available when the resource is not available - there is no wind or it is at night -,[178] in addition to facilitating the stability of the electrical system.[179].
India
India is densely populated and also has high solar irradiation, making the country one of the best candidates for the development of photovoltaics. In 2009, India announced a program to accelerate the use of solar installations in government buildings, as well as hospitals and hotels.[180].
The drop in the price of photovoltaic panels has coincided with an increase in the price of electricity in India. Government support and the abundance of the solar resource have helped drive the adoption of this technology.[181].
The 345 MW Charanka solar park (one of the largest in the world) was commissioned in April 2012 and expanded in 2015, along with a total of 605 MW in the Gujarat region.[182] The construction of other large solar parks has been announced in the state of Rajasthan.[183] The 40 MW Dhirubhai Ambani solar park was also inaugurated in 2012.[184].
In January 2015, the Indian government significantly increased its solar development plans, setting an investment target of $100 billion and 100 GW of solar capacity by 2022.[185][186].
At the beginning of 2017, the total installed capacity in India was above 10 GW.[187] India hopes to quickly reach 20 GW installed,[188] meeting its goal of creating 1 million jobs[189] and reaching 100 GW in 2022.[190][191].
Italy
Italy is among the first countries producing electricity from photovoltaic energy, thanks to the incentive program called Conto Energia.[192] The growth has been exponential in recent years: installed power tripled in 2010 and quadrupled in 2011, producing in 2012 5.6% of the total energy consumed in the country.[135].
This program had a total budget of €6.7 billion. Once this limit was reached, the Government has stopped encouraging new installations, having reached network parity. A report published in 2013 by Deutsche Bank concluded that grid parity had indeed been achieved in Italy and other countries around the world.[193] The sector has come to provide work for around 100,000 people, especially in the sector of the design and installation of said solar plants.[194].
Since mid-2012, new legislation has been in force that requires the registration of all plants greater than 12 kW; those with lower power (rooftop photovoltaics in residences) are exempt from registration.[195] At the end of 2016, the total installed power was above 19 GW,[149] assuming such significant energy production that several gas plants operated at half their potential during the day.
United Kingdom
Solar energy in the United Kingdom, although relatively unknown until recently,[196] has taken off very rapidly in recent years, due to the drastic fall in the price of photovoltaic panels and the introduction of regulated tariffs from April 2010.[197] In 2014, there were already some 650,000 solar installations registered in the British Isles, with a total capacity close to 5 GW.[198] The largest solar plant in the country is located on Southwick Estate, near Fareham, and has a capacity of 48 MW. It was inaugurated in March 2015.[199].
In 2012, David Cameron's British government committed to powering four million homes with solar energy in less than eight years,[200] which is equivalent to installing around 22 GW of photovoltaic capacity by 2020.[197] By early 2016, the United Kingdom had installed more than 10 GW of solar photovoltaic energy.[201].
Between the months of April and September 2016, solar energy produced more electricity in the United Kingdom (6,964 GWh) than that produced by coal (6,342 GWh), both representing around 5% of demand.[138].
France
The French market is the fourth most important within the European Union, after the markets of Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. At the end of 2014 it had more than 5 GW installed, and currently maintains sustained growth, it is estimated that in 2015 it will connect 1 GW additional to the current capacity to the electrical grid.[202] Recently, the French country increased the quota of its auctions for photovoltaic energy from 400 to 800 MW, as a consequence of government recognition of the increasingly competitiveness of solar energy.[202].
In France there is one of the largest photovoltaic plants in Europe, a 300 MW project called Cestas.[203][204][205] Its entry into operation took place at the end of 2015, providing the photovoltaic sector with an example for the rest of the European industry to follow.[203].
Spain
Spain is one of the countries in Europe with the highest annual irradiation.[43] This makes solar energy more profitable in this country than in others. Regions such as northern Spain, which are generally considered unsuitable for photovoltaic energy, receive more annual irradiation than the average in Germany, a country that has maintained leadership in the promotion of photovoltaic solar energy for years.[43].
Since the beginning of the 2000s, in accordance with the support measures for renewable energies that were being carried out in the rest of Europe, the regulation that establishes the technical and administrative conditions had been approved, and which marked the beginning of a slow takeoff of photovoltaics in Spain. In 2004, the Spanish government eliminated economic barriers to connecting renewable energy to the electrical grid. Royal Decree 436/2004 equalized the conditions for its large-scale production, and guaranteed its sale through generation premiums.[206].
Thanks to this regulation, and the subsequent RD 661/2007,[207] Spain was in 2008 one of the countries with the most installed photovoltaic power in the world, with 2708 MW installed in a single year. However, subsequent modifications in the legislation of the sector[208] slowed down the construction of new photovoltaic plants, so that in 2009 only 19 MW were installed, in 2010, 420 MW, and in 2011 354 MW were installed, corresponding to 2% of the total in the European Union.[133].
In terms of energy production, in 2010 photovoltaic energy covered approximately 2% of electricity generation in Spain, while in 2011 and 2012 it represented 2.9%, and in 2013 3.1% of electricity generation according to data from the operator, Red Eléctrica.[209][210][211]
In 2018, the share of photovoltaic solar energy in Spain reached 3.2% of all energy produced nationally.[212].
At the beginning of 2012, the Spanish Government approved a Royal Decree Law by which the installation of new photovoltaic plants and other renewable energies was paralyzed.[213] At the end of 2015, the photovoltaic power installed in Spain amounted to 4,667 MW.[214] In 2017, Spain fell for the first time from the list of the ten countries with the highest installed photovoltaic capacity, being surpassed by Australia and Korea. of the South.[215] However, in July 2017, the Government organized an auction that awarded more than 3,500 MW of new photovoltaic energy plants,[216] that will allow Spain to achieve the renewable energy generation objectives established by the European Union for 2020. As a novelty, neither the construction of the awarded plants nor their operation will entail any cost for the system, except in the event that the market price falls below a floor. established at the auction. The great drop in costs of photovoltaic energy has allowed large companies to bid at market price.[217].
In 2019, photovoltaics has increased the installed power in Spain by more than 3,000 MW with a total installed power of 7,800 MW.[218] Spain has the largest connected photovoltaic plant in Europe, located in the town of Mula (Murcia), with 494 MW.[219].
Latin America
In Latin America, photovoltaics has begun to take off in recent years. The construction of a good number of solar plants has been proposed in various countries, throughout the entire region.[221].
Photovoltaic solar energy is expanding in Brazil, while in 2020 the country had 7.8 GW of installed solar energy, the fourteenth country in the world in terms of that energy, as of October 2022 the installed capacity reached a total of 21 GW, with an average capacity factor of 23%. In 2023, Brazil will be among the 10 countries in the world with the most installed solar energy.[222] Some of the most irradiated Brazilian states are Minas Gerais, Bahia and Goiás, which have an irradiation between 4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m²/day.[223][224].
Mexico is the second Latin American country with the highest installed capacity (7.0 GW in 2021),[225] and still has enormous potential when it comes to solar energy.[226][227] 70% of its territory has an irradiation greater than 4.5 kWh/m²/day, which makes it a very sunny country, and implies that using current photovoltaic technology, a 25 km² solar plant in Any place in the state of Chihuahua or the Sonoran Desert (which would occupy 0.01% of Mexico's surface) could provide all the electricity demanded by the country.[228].
The Aura Solar project, located in La Paz (Baja California Sur) "La Paz (Baja California Sur)"), inaugurated at the beginning of 2014, which intended to generate 82 GWh per year, enough to supply the consumption of 164,000 inhabitants (65% of the population of La Paz "La Paz (Baja California Sur)")), but was devastated by Hurricane Odile in September of the same year and the plant stopped operating for several months.
In 2016, the reconstruction of the plant was carried out, which was completed at the end of the same year and from 2017 to date it has been in operation again.[229].
Another 47 MW photovoltaic plant is in the planning phase in Puerto Libertad (Sonora) "Puerto Libertad (Sonora)").[230] The plant, originally designed to house 39 MW, was expanded to allow the generation of 107 GWh/year.[231].
Mexico already has more than 3000 MW installed. It is expected to experience greater growth in the coming years, in order to reach the goal of covering 35% of its energy demand from renewable energy in 2024, according to a law approved by the Mexican government in 2012.[232][233].
Until a few years ago, Chile led solar production in Latin America (today it is in third place - 4.4 GW in 2021[225]). The first photovoltaic solar plant in Chile was El Águila, of 2.2 MWp located in Arica, completed in 2012. This country inaugurated a 100 MW photovoltaic plant in June 2014, which became the largest to date in Latin America.[234] The high price of electricity and the high levels of radiation that exist in the north of Chile have promoted the opening of an important free market for subsidies.[235] At the end of 2018, the Andean country had 2,427 MW of photovoltaics in operation. Chile has a potential of more than 1800 GW of possible solar energy in the Atacama Desert, according to a study carried out by the German GIZ in Chile (German Society for International Cooperation, 2014). The Atacama Desert is the most irradiated place in the world with global irradiation levels (GHI) above 2700 kWh/m²/year.
Temporal evolution
The following table shows the details of the installed world power, broken down by each country, from 2002 to 2022:
Long term forecast
According to the Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023 report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the photovoltaic power installed in the world reached 773.2 GW in 2020, which represents a growth of 22% compared to the year previous.[1] This growth was double that of renewables as a whole, and represented 39% of the installed power of all electricity generation technologies in 2020.
China was the main photovoltaic market in 2020, with 48 GW installed, followed by the United States, with 19 GW, and Vietnam, with 11 GW1. Spain was among the countries with the highest percentage increase in photovoltaic power, with a 31.99% increase, reaching 18.2 GW.[2] Photovoltaics in countries such as Brazil, Chile and Saudi Arabia have not yet been developed as expected, and are expected to be developed in the coming years. By 2021, the photovoltaic power installed in the world was expected to exceed 900 GW, and that by 2025 it would reach 1,500 GW, according to SolarPower forecasts Europe.[3] The consulting firm Frost & Sullivan estimates that photovoltaic power will reach 1,000 GW in 2024, and that China, India and the United States will follow being the market leaders.
Photovoltaic energy has great potential to contribute to the energy transition and the mitigation of climate change, since it is a clean, renewable, decentralized and competitive source of energy. According to Irena, photovoltaic energy could cover 13% of global electricity demand in 2030, and 23% in 2050. In addition, photovoltaic energy could generate more than 23 million jobs in 2050, and avoid the emission of more than 4 billion tons of CO2 per year.
The PV Market Alliance (PVMA) organization, a consortium made up of several research entities, estimates that global capacity will be between 444-630 GW in 2020. In the most pessimistic scenario, it predicts that the annual installation rate will be between 40 and 50 gigawatts at the end of the decade, while in the most optimistic scenario it estimates that between 60 and 90 GW will be installed annually over the next five years. The intermediate scenario estimates that they will be between 50 and 70 GW, to reach 536 GW in 2020.[247][248] The PVMA figures agree with those previously published by . In June 2015, Greentech Media (GTM) published its report for 2020, which estimates that annual installations will increase from 40 to 135 GW, reaching a total global capacity of almost 700 GW in 2020. GTM's estimate is the most optimistic of all those published to date, estimating that 518 GW will be installed between 2015 and 2020, which is more than double other estimates.[249].