Scenario analysis
Introduction
Scenario Planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make long-term planning flexible.
To a large extent it is an adaptation and generalization of the classic methods used by military intelligence.
The basic method is that a group of analysts generate simulation games for those who decide.
These games combine real facts about the future, such as demographic, geographic, military, political, industrial information, mineral reserves with possible alternatives regarding social, technical, economic and political trends (step), which are the key forces.
Scenario planning can include anticipatory elements that are difficult to formalize, such as subjective interpretations of events, shifts in values, new regulations or inventions.