Change in distributions

If climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation (precipitation (meteorology)) change in a region beyond the tolerance of a species' phenotypic plasticity, then changes in the species' distribution may be inevitable. There is already evidence that plant species are changing their altitude and latitude ranges in response to regional climate changes. However, it is difficult to predict how species' ranges will change in response to climate. and separate these changes from all other human-caused environmental changes, such as eutrophication, acid rain and habitat destruction.[24]​[25]​[26]​.

Compared to past reported migration rates of plant species, the rapid pace of current change has the potential to not only alter species distributions, but also render many species unable to follow the climate to which they are adapted.[27] The environmental conditions required by some species, such as those in alpine regions, may disappear entirely. The result of these changes is likely to be a rapid increase in the risk of extinction.[28]​ Adaptation to new conditions may also be of great importance in the response of plants.[29]​.

However, predicting the risk of extinction of plant species is not easy. Estimates of particular periods of rapid climate change in the past have shown relatively little species extinction in some regions, for example.[30] Knowledge of how species can adapt or persist in the face of rapid change is still relatively limited.

Changes in the suitability of a habitat for a species drive distribution changes not only by changing the area that a species can physiologically tolerate, but also the effectiveness with which it can compete with other plants within this area. Therefore, changes in community composition are also an expected product of climate change.

Changes in life cycles (phenology)

The timing of phenological events such as flowering is often related to environmental variables such as temperature. Changing environments are therefore expected to lead to changes in life cycle events, and these have been recorded for many plant species.[22] These changes have the potential to lead to asynchrony between species or to change competition between plants. Flowering times in British plants, for example, have changed, leading to annuals flowering before perennials and insect-pollinated plants flowering before wind-pollinated plants; with possible ecological consequences.[31]​ A recently published study has used data recorded by the writer and naturalist Henry David Thoreau to confirm the effects of climate change on the phenology of some species in the Concord, Massachusetts area.[32]​.

Genetic diversity

Species richness and evenness play a key role in how quickly and productively an ecosystem can adapt to change.[33]​ By increasing the possibility of a population bottleneck to "Bottleneck (biology)") through more extreme climate events, genetic diversity in the population would decrease dramatically.[34]​ Since genetic diversity is a major contributor to how an ecosystem can evolve, the ecosystem would be much more susceptible to being wiped out, as each individual would be similar. to the next. The absence of genetic mutations and the decrease in species richness significantly increases the possibility of extinction.[5]​.

Alteration of the environment puts pressure on a plant to increase its phenotypic plasticity, causing species to change more rapidly than anticipated.[35] These plastic responses will help plants respond to a rapidly changing environment. Understanding how native species change in response to the environment will help draw conclusions about how mutualistic relationships will react.

All species are likely to be affected directly by the changes in environmental conditions discussed above, and also indirectly through their interactions with other species. While direct impacts may be easier to predict and conceptualize, indirect impacts are likely to be equally important in determining the response of plants to climate change.[36]​[37]​ A species whose distribution changes as a direct result of climate change may 'invade' the range of another species or be 'invaded', for example by introducing a new competitive relationship or altering other processes such as carbon sequestration.[38]​.

In Europe, the effects of temperature and precipitation due to climate change can indirectly affect certain populations of people. Rising temperatures and lack of precipitation result in different river floodplains, which reduce populations of people sensitive to flood risk.[39]​.

The range of a symbiotic fungus associated with plant roots can change directly as a result of an altered climate, resulting in a change in plant distribution.[40]​.

A new grass can spread to a region, altering the fire regime and greatly changing species composition.

A pathogen or parasite can change its interactions with a plant, such as a fungal pathogen that becomes more common in an area where rainfall increases.

Rising temperatures may allow herbivores to expand further into alpine regions, significantly affecting the composition of alpine herb fields.

Species respond in very different ways to climate change. Variation in species distribution, phenology and abundance will lead to inevitable changes in the relative abundance of species and their interactions. These changes will continue to affect the structure and function of ecosystems.[23]​ Bird migration patterns are already showing a shift in flying south earlier and, by returning earlier, this could over time affect the broader ecosystem. If the birds leave early, this would decrease the pollination rates of some plants over time. The observation of bird migrations is further evidence of climate change, which would result in plants flowering at different times.[41]​.

With certain plant species having a disadvantage with a warmer climate, their insect herbivores may also be affected.[42]​ Temperature will directly affect the diversity, persistence and survival of both plants and their insect herbivores. As these herbivorous insects decline, so will the higher levels of species that feed on those insects.

Accurate predictions of the future impacts of climate change on plant diversity are essential for the development of conservation strategies. These predictions largely come from bioinformatics strategies, which involve modeling individual species, groups of species as 'functional types', communities, ecosystems or biomes. They may also involve species modeling of observed environmental niches or observed physiological processes.

Although useful, modeling has many limitations. First, there is uncertainty about the future levels of greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change[43]​ and considerable uncertainty in modeling how this will affect other aspects of the climate, such as precipitation or local temperatures. For most species, the importance of specific climatic variables in defining distribution (e.g., minimum precipitation or maximum temperature) is unknown. It is also difficult to know which aspects of a particular climate variable are most biologically relevant, such as average versus maximum or minimum temperatures. Ecological processes such as species interactions and dispersal rates and distances are also inherently complex, further complicating predictions.

Model improvement is an active area of ​​research, with new models attempting to take into account factors such as species life history traits or processes such as migration when predicting changes in distribution; although possible trade-offs between regional precision and generality are recognized.[44]​.

Climate change is also expected to interact with other drivers of biodiversity change, such as habitat destruction and fragmentation or the introduction of alien species. It is possible that these threats act in synergy to increase the risk of extinction from that observed in periods of rapid climate change in the past.[20]​.

• - Global warming.

• - Biodiversity.

• - Biogeochemistry.

• - Desertification.

• - Effects of global warming.

• - Effects of climate change on wine production.

• - Systems ecology.

• - (2008) Government report on the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States.

• - (2003) Summary report of an international conference on Global Climate Change and Biodiversity, Joint Committee on Nature Conservation.

• - (2008) Discussion on the future of modeling the impacts of climate change on the distribution of plant species. on wilfried thuiller's website.

• - (2005) The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, including discussion of the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

• - Global Change Biology: a scientific journal with articles related to the interaction between global changes such as climate and biological systems. Archived September 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.

• - (2011) After birds disappear, plants are next to disappear - New Scientist.

Change in distributions

If climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation (precipitation (meteorology)) change in a region beyond the tolerance of a species' phenotypic plasticity, then changes in the species' distribution may be inevitable. There is already evidence that plant species are changing their altitude and latitude ranges in response to regional climate changes. However, it is difficult to predict how species' ranges will change in response to climate. and separate these changes from all other human-caused environmental changes, such as eutrophication, acid rain and habitat destruction.[24]​[25]​[26]​.

Compared to past reported migration rates of plant species, the rapid pace of current change has the potential to not only alter species distributions, but also render many species unable to follow the climate to which they are adapted.[27] The environmental conditions required by some species, such as those in alpine regions, may disappear entirely. The result of these changes is likely to be a rapid increase in the risk of extinction.[28]​ Adaptation to new conditions may also be of great importance in the response of plants.[29]​.

However, predicting the risk of extinction of plant species is not easy. Estimates of particular periods of rapid climate change in the past have shown relatively little species extinction in some regions, for example.[30] Knowledge of how species can adapt or persist in the face of rapid change is still relatively limited.

Changes in the suitability of a habitat for a species drive distribution changes not only by changing the area that a species can physiologically tolerate, but also the effectiveness with which it can compete with other plants within this area. Therefore, changes in community composition are also an expected product of climate change.

Changes in life cycles (phenology)

The timing of phenological events such as flowering is often related to environmental variables such as temperature. Changing environments are therefore expected to lead to changes in life cycle events, and these have been recorded for many plant species.[22] These changes have the potential to lead to asynchrony between species or to change competition between plants. Flowering times in British plants, for example, have changed, leading to annuals flowering before perennials and insect-pollinated plants flowering before wind-pollinated plants; with possible ecological consequences.[31]​ A recently published study has used data recorded by the writer and naturalist Henry David Thoreau to confirm the effects of climate change on the phenology of some species in the Concord, Massachusetts area.[32]​.

Genetic diversity

Species richness and evenness play a key role in how quickly and productively an ecosystem can adapt to change.[33]​ By increasing the possibility of a population bottleneck to "Bottleneck (biology)") through more extreme climate events, genetic diversity in the population would decrease dramatically.[34]​ Since genetic diversity is a major contributor to how an ecosystem can evolve, the ecosystem would be much more susceptible to being wiped out, as each individual would be similar. to the next. The absence of genetic mutations and the decrease in species richness significantly increases the possibility of extinction.[5]​.

Alteration of the environment puts pressure on a plant to increase its phenotypic plasticity, causing species to change more rapidly than anticipated.[35] These plastic responses will help plants respond to a rapidly changing environment. Understanding how native species change in response to the environment will help draw conclusions about how mutualistic relationships will react.

All species are likely to be affected directly by the changes in environmental conditions discussed above, and also indirectly through their interactions with other species. While direct impacts may be easier to predict and conceptualize, indirect impacts are likely to be equally important in determining the response of plants to climate change.[36]​[37]​ A species whose distribution changes as a direct result of climate change may 'invade' the range of another species or be 'invaded', for example by introducing a new competitive relationship or altering other processes such as carbon sequestration.[38]​.

In Europe, the effects of temperature and precipitation due to climate change can indirectly affect certain populations of people. Rising temperatures and lack of precipitation result in different river floodplains, which reduce populations of people sensitive to flood risk.[39]​.

The range of a symbiotic fungus associated with plant roots can change directly as a result of an altered climate, resulting in a change in plant distribution.[40]​.

A new grass can spread to a region, altering the fire regime and greatly changing species composition.

A pathogen or parasite can change its interactions with a plant, such as a fungal pathogen that becomes more common in an area where rainfall increases.

Rising temperatures may allow herbivores to expand further into alpine regions, significantly affecting the composition of alpine herb fields.

Species respond in very different ways to climate change. Variation in species distribution, phenology and abundance will lead to inevitable changes in the relative abundance of species and their interactions. These changes will continue to affect the structure and function of ecosystems.[23]​ Bird migration patterns are already showing a shift in flying south earlier and, by returning earlier, this could over time affect the broader ecosystem. If the birds leave early, this would decrease the pollination rates of some plants over time. The observation of bird migrations is further evidence of climate change, which would result in plants flowering at different times.[41]​.

With certain plant species having a disadvantage with a warmer climate, their insect herbivores may also be affected.[42]​ Temperature will directly affect the diversity, persistence and survival of both plants and their insect herbivores. As these herbivorous insects decline, so will the higher levels of species that feed on those insects.

Accurate predictions of the future impacts of climate change on plant diversity are essential for the development of conservation strategies. These predictions largely come from bioinformatics strategies, which involve modeling individual species, groups of species as 'functional types', communities, ecosystems or biomes. They may also involve species modeling of observed environmental niches or observed physiological processes.

Although useful, modeling has many limitations. First, there is uncertainty about the future levels of greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change[43]​ and considerable uncertainty in modeling how this will affect other aspects of the climate, such as precipitation or local temperatures. For most species, the importance of specific climatic variables in defining distribution (e.g., minimum precipitation or maximum temperature) is unknown. It is also difficult to know which aspects of a particular climate variable are most biologically relevant, such as average versus maximum or minimum temperatures. Ecological processes such as species interactions and dispersal rates and distances are also inherently complex, further complicating predictions.

Model improvement is an active area of ​​research, with new models attempting to take into account factors such as species life history traits or processes such as migration when predicting changes in distribution; although possible trade-offs between regional precision and generality are recognized.[44]​.

Climate change is also expected to interact with other drivers of biodiversity change, such as habitat destruction and fragmentation or the introduction of alien species. It is possible that these threats act in synergy to increase the risk of extinction from that observed in periods of rapid climate change in the past.[20]​.

• - Global warming.

• - Biodiversity.

• - Biogeochemistry.

• - Desertification.

• - Effects of global warming.

• - Effects of climate change on wine production.

• - Systems ecology.

• - (2008) Government report on the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States.

• - (2003) Summary report of an international conference on Global Climate Change and Biodiversity, Joint Committee on Nature Conservation.

• - (2008) Discussion on the future of modeling the impacts of climate change on the distribution of plant species. on wilfried thuiller's website.

• - (2005) The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, including discussion of the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

• - Global Change Biology: a scientific journal with articles related to the interaction between global changes such as climate and biological systems. Archived September 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.

• - (2011) After birds disappear, plants are next to disappear - New Scientist.