Contenido

Existen muchas estimaciones que han sido publicadas sobre los beneficios económicos netos y los costos del cambio climático en todo el mundo.

En 2006, Nicholas Stern, economista de desarrollo y economista jefe del Banco Mundial, advirtió que el cambio climático podría reducir el crecimiento mundial si no se toman medidas.[113]​ En su informe, Stern sugiere que el 1 % del PIB mundial se debería invertir con el fin de mitigar los efectos del cambio climático, que el hecho de no hacerlo podría provocar una recesión de hasta el 20 % del PIB mundial, y que el cambio climático amenaza con provocar el mayor fracaso comercial jamás visto.[114]​.

En 2013, Rachel Kyte"), vicepresidente para Desarrollo Sostenible del Banco Mundial anunció que el costo económico por los desastres naturales aumentó cuatro veces desde 1980.[115]​.

En 2015, estimaciones con base en el escenario de emisiones del IPCC A1B, con liberación extra de CO y metano proveniente del permafrost, calcularon los daños asociados a los impactos en 43 billones USD.[116]​.

Insurance

An industry very directly affected by risks is the insurance sector, the number of major natural disasters has tripled since the 1960s, and insured losses have increased. According to one study, 35-40% of the worst disasters have been related to climate change. Over the past three decades, the proportion of the world's population affected by climate-related disasters has doubled in a linear trend, rising from approximately 2% in 1975 to 4% in 2001.

A June 2004 report by the Association of British Insurers stated "Climate change is not a remote issue for future generations." The Commission noted that weather risks to homes and property have increased by 2-4% per year due to climate changes, and that claims for storm and flood damage in the UK have doubled to more than £6 million over the period 1998-2003, compared to the previous five years. The results are increased insurance premiums, and the risk that in some flood zones insurance will become unaffordable for some.

Financial institutions, including the world's two largest insurance companies, Munich Re and Swiss Re, warned in a 2002 study that "the increasing frequency of severe weather events, coupled with social trends" could cost nearly one hundred and fifty million dollars in the US each year over the next decade.

Transport

Regarding transportation, a good part of the current infrastructure will be damaged by climate change (increase in temperature, torrential rains, etc.), which will cause greater investments for its repair and renewal in roads, airports (landing strips), railways and oil pipelines.

Flood defense

In developing countries, the poorest often live on floodplains, because it is the only space available, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dikes and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack insurance, savings or access to the credit needed to recover from disasters.

Northwest Passage

Melting Arctic ice could open the Northwest Passage in summer, reducing shipping routes between Europe and Asia by 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km). This would be of particular benefit to supertankers that are too large to pass through the Panama Canal and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in eastern Canada's Arctic Archipelago decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004.

In September 2007, the Arctic ice cap retreated enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable for shipping for the first time in history.

In August 2008, melting sea ice simultaneously opened the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, making it possible to navigate the entire Arctic ice. Scientists estimate that this has not happened in 125,000 years. The Northwest Passage opened on August 25, 2008, and the rest of the ice tongue blocking the Northern Sea Route dissolved a few days later. Due to the shrinking Arctic, the Beluga group of Bremen, Germany, announced plans to send the first ship through the Northern Sea Route.

Direct effects of rising temperatures

The most direct effect of climate change on humans will probably be the impact that the high temperatures that will be reached will have on them. These extreme temperatures will lead to an increase in the number of deaths, mainly because the cardiovascular system of people with heart disease will not be able to withstand the enormous effort that the body will have to make to stay cool in the hottest periods. For this reason, various doctors have announced[124]​ that global warming could mean an increase in the number of heart-related diseases. In addition to this, these variations in temperature will lead to an increase in respiratory problems, and in episodes of exhaustion and dehydration such as lipothymia.

Another important problem that will trigger this rise in the average temperature of the planet will be the increase, in the layers bordering the atmosphere with the earth, of ozone particles, a gas that although its presence in the stratosphere provides us with enormous benefits by filtering harmful solar rays, at ground level it is highly polluting, which will represent a great inconvenience, mainly for people with asthma and respiratory problems.[125]​.

On the other hand, this increase in temperature will in turn cause a decrease in mortality caused by the extreme cold that occurs in some regions of the planet in the winter period. Because of this, the number of annual deaths due to climate factors may not increase.

Palutikof and other scientists estimated in 1996 that an increase of 1 °C in the global average temperature would mean, in the area comprising the United Kingdom and Wales, a reduction of 7,000 deaths annually.[126] In turn, an article by Keatinge and others published in 2000 suggests that any increase in mortality due to the increase in temperature will be more than offset by the enormous decrease in the number of deaths caused by the cold.[127]​.

However, a government report shows, in the United Kingdom, a decrease in mortality due to the warming experienced until this last decade, but predicts an increase in the number of deaths in the future if warming continues as before.[128]​.

The heat waves in Europe in 2003 caused the death of between twenty-two thousand to thirty-five thousand people.[129] Peter A. Stott, of the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, has estimated with a reliability of 90% that past human influence on the climate was the cause of this heat wave reaching at least twice as destructive power as it would have been without this human influence.[130]

As an interesting fact, it should be added that in the United Kingdom more than a hundred people die each year from cold, while twice as many die from heat.[131]​.

Disease spread

Global warming can extend the zones of action of the viral vectors "Vector (biology)"), promoting the transmission of infectious diseases such as dengue[132]​ and malaria.[133]​[134]​ In less developed countries, this will simply further enhance the high incidence rates of these diseases, while in more developed countries, in which these diseases had been eradicated, or were controlled by vaccination, or simply with hygienic measures or pesticides, the consequences will be felt more in the economy than in health. Additionally, disease vectors released by the melting of polar ice or by the expansion of the geographic ranges of existing vectors could lead to the return of some ancient pests.[135]​.

The World Health Organization (WHO-WHO) has warned that global warming could increase the number of diseases caused by parasites throughout Europe, mainly due to an increase in populations of ticks, mosquitoes, flies and intestinal parasites. Also other diseases, such as malaria, could reappear in areas that include developed countries, such as Europe, whose last epidemic took place in the Netherlands in 1950, and the United States, in which malaria has been endemic in at least 36 states until 1940.[136]​ being completely eradicated in 1949, with the introduction of DDT.[137]​.

It has also recently been discovered that malaria has begun to occur in the high regions of New Guinea, where due to its too cold climate, the carrying mosquitoes could not survive until a few years ago.[138]​.

The WHO estimates 150,000 deaths annually as a result of climate change, of which half will be located in the Asia and Pacific region.[139]​ Each year, increasing levels of smog can cause millions of premature deaths.[135]​.

Child population

On April 29, 2008, a report from UNICEF (United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund) reported that global warming is reducing the quality of life of the most vulnerable children and making it more difficult, due to the reduction in access to drinking water and the food reserves that this implies, mainly in Africa and Asia. Likewise, diseases, disasters and violence are expected to intensify and become more frequent, worsening the future of the world's poorest children.[140]​.

Cognitive abilities

There could be significant declines in human cognitive abilities due to the possible tripling (by the end of the century) of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.[135]​.

Se han detectado en todo el mundo los efectos del cambio climático en los sistemas humanos, en su mayoría debido al calentamiento o cambios en los patrones de precipitación "Precipitación (meteorología)"), o ambos. La producción de trigo y maíz a nivel mundial se ha visto afectada por el cambio climático. Pese a que la productividad agrícola se ha incrementado en algunas regiones de latitudes medias, como el Reino Unido y en el noreste de China, las pérdidas económicas debidas a fenómenos meteorológicos extremos han aumentado a nivel mundial. Ha habido una mortalidad vinculada al cambio de frío a calor en algunas regiones como resultado del calentamiento. Sus efectos se observan en más regiones que antes, en todos los continentes y a lo largo de zonas oceánicas.[141]​.

Los futuros impactos sociales del cambio climático serán desiguales.[142]​ Se espera que muchos riesgos aumenten con mayores magnitudes de calentamiento global.[143]​ Todas las regiones están en riesgo de sufrir impactos negativos.[144]​ Las zonas de baja latitud y de menor desarrollo se enfrentan a los mayores peligros.[145]​ Un estudio de 2015 concluyó que el crecimiento económico (producto interno bruto) de los países más pobres se verá perjudicado por el calentamiento global proyectado mucho más de lo que se creía anteriormente.[146]​.

Un metaanálisis de 56 estudios concluyó en 2014 que cada grado de temperatura adicional aumentará la violencia hasta un 20 %, la que incluye riñas, crímenes violentos, agitación social o guerras.[147]​.

Los ejemplos de impactos incluyen:.

En ausencia de un ajuste significativo de cómo miles de millones de humanos llevan a cabo sus vidas, es probable que partes de la Tierra se vuelvan inhabitables y otras partes horriblemente inhóspitas, tan pronto como a fines de este siglo.[135]​ Miami, Bangladés y otras bajas áreas costeras podrían perderse en este siglo.[135]​ Ciudades como Karachi y Kolkata serán inhabitables.[135]​.

indigenous peoples

Indigenous peoples are among those most affected by climate change, since their survival depends on the natural resources of their environment and any change, such as extreme droughts, can threaten their lives. Due to the decrease in water, these people lose their cultural terrain and way of life for generations, where multiple cultures have created social, cultural and artistic forms around the ecosystem,[156]​ causing a displacement of indigenous peoples to developed cities.

In a report published in 2009, the NGO Survival International denounced the impact of climate change mitigation measures on indigenous peoples, such as biofuels, hydropower, forest conservation and carbon offsetting.[157] According to the report, such measures make it easier for governments and companies to violate their rights and claim and exploit their lands.

Climate change has altered the livelihoods of indigenous peoples in the Arctic and there is emerging evidence of its impacts on the livelihoods of indigenous peoples in other regions.

Floods

As a consequence of rising sea levels, flooding is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements on small islands and large deltas.[158][159] This could lead to homelessness in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, as well as loss of homeland for people in the Maldives and Tuvalu.[160]

Development

The combined effects of global warming can have particularly serious consequences for people and countries without the resources to mitigate them. This can slow economic development and poverty reduction, and make it more difficult to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.[161]​.

In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development and environmental non-governmental organizations, issued a report on the effects of climate change on development.

Infrastructure

Continued degradation of permafrost will likely lead to unstable infrastructure in the Arctic regions or Alaska before 2100. Consequently, it will impact roads, pipelines and buildings, as well as water distribution, and cause slope failures.[162]​.

Security

The Military Advisory Board, a committee of American generals and admirals, released a report titled *National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. The report predicts that global warming will have widespread security implications.[163]

British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett stated that "An unstable climate will exacerbate several current issues of conflict, such as migration and competition for resources."[164] Several weeks before this, United States Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NB) and Richard Durbin (D-IL) presented a bill to the US Congress that required the collaboration of federal intelligence agencies to assess the challenges posed by change. climate.[165]​.

In November 2007, two Washington lobby groups, the established Center for Strategic and International Studies and the recently established Center for a New American Security, published a report analyzing the global security implications of three global warming scenarios.

The report considers three different scenarios, two with an approximate 30-year perspective, and another for the period after 2100. Its general conclusions are summarized below:[166]​.

Education

Climate change is having a significant impact on education, although its effects are often overlooked in climate policy discussions. Natural disasters related to climate change, such as fires, extreme heat waves, floods and other increasingly frequent weather events, have destroyed schools and forced their closure. Additionally, they have damaged the infrastructure necessary for access to education, such as bridges, roads and learning materials, which disrupts the educational process.[169]​.

These interruptions have negative repercussions on learning, as well as the physical and mental health of students. In the most serious cases, academic staff, students and their families have suffered injuries or even lost their lives due to these disasters, which could have devastating long-term consequences for education systems. The climate crisis also affects other fundamental aspects of education, such as air quality, access to drinking water, food production and housing security. These problems increase truancy, encourage dropouts, and threaten the well-being and safety of students. [169]​.

However, education also plays a crucial role in mitigating these effects, by improving students' resilience to climate events. By providing students with the skills necessary to respond and adapt to climate disasters, education not only reduces people's vulnerability to climate change, but also empowers them with the ability to innovate and find solutions. This is especially important in contexts where subsistence resources are at risk.[170]​[171]​.

Furthermore, people with higher levels of education tend to more fully recognize the challenges posed by climate change, adopt more environmentally friendly behaviors, and show a greater preference for policies that respond to the climate crisis.[172]​Given this reality, educational systems must adapt to protect students, especially the most vulnerable, from these impacts.[169]​.

The importance of education in the fight against climate change is widely recognized. UNESCO emphasizes that education is a key component in promoting climate action, as it allows people to understand and confront the repercussions of the climate crisis. Through education, the necessary knowledge, values ​​and skills are provided so that individuals can act as agents of change. Internationally, the importance of education and training in the fight against climate change has been widely recognized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement and the Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) program call on governments to educate, empower and involve all stakeholders, including large groups, in the formulation of policies and actions related to climate change.[173]​.

However, it is important not to ignore that the education sector is also being deeply affected by climate change and natural disasters. In Latin America and the Caribbean, for example, 277 million people have been affected by climate change in the last 22 years, and it is expected that this region will be one of the most impacted if the climate crisis continues to worsen.[169]​.

Contenido

Existen muchas estimaciones que han sido publicadas sobre los beneficios económicos netos y los costos del cambio climático en todo el mundo.

En 2006, Nicholas Stern, economista de desarrollo y economista jefe del Banco Mundial, advirtió que el cambio climático podría reducir el crecimiento mundial si no se toman medidas.[113]​ En su informe, Stern sugiere que el 1 % del PIB mundial se debería invertir con el fin de mitigar los efectos del cambio climático, que el hecho de no hacerlo podría provocar una recesión de hasta el 20 % del PIB mundial, y que el cambio climático amenaza con provocar el mayor fracaso comercial jamás visto.[114]​.

En 2013, Rachel Kyte"), vicepresidente para Desarrollo Sostenible del Banco Mundial anunció que el costo económico por los desastres naturales aumentó cuatro veces desde 1980.[115]​.

En 2015, estimaciones con base en el escenario de emisiones del IPCC A1B, con liberación extra de CO y metano proveniente del permafrost, calcularon los daños asociados a los impactos en 43 billones USD.[116]​.

Insurance

An industry very directly affected by risks is the insurance sector, the number of major natural disasters has tripled since the 1960s, and insured losses have increased. According to one study, 35-40% of the worst disasters have been related to climate change. Over the past three decades, the proportion of the world's population affected by climate-related disasters has doubled in a linear trend, rising from approximately 2% in 1975 to 4% in 2001.

A June 2004 report by the Association of British Insurers stated "Climate change is not a remote issue for future generations." The Commission noted that weather risks to homes and property have increased by 2-4% per year due to climate changes, and that claims for storm and flood damage in the UK have doubled to more than £6 million over the period 1998-2003, compared to the previous five years. The results are increased insurance premiums, and the risk that in some flood zones insurance will become unaffordable for some.

Financial institutions, including the world's two largest insurance companies, Munich Re and Swiss Re, warned in a 2002 study that "the increasing frequency of severe weather events, coupled with social trends" could cost nearly one hundred and fifty million dollars in the US each year over the next decade.

Transport

Regarding transportation, a good part of the current infrastructure will be damaged by climate change (increase in temperature, torrential rains, etc.), which will cause greater investments for its repair and renewal in roads, airports (landing strips), railways and oil pipelines.

Flood defense

In developing countries, the poorest often live on floodplains, because it is the only space available, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dikes and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack insurance, savings or access to the credit needed to recover from disasters.

Northwest Passage

Melting Arctic ice could open the Northwest Passage in summer, reducing shipping routes between Europe and Asia by 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km). This would be of particular benefit to supertankers that are too large to pass through the Panama Canal and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in eastern Canada's Arctic Archipelago decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004.

In September 2007, the Arctic ice cap retreated enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable for shipping for the first time in history.

In August 2008, melting sea ice simultaneously opened the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, making it possible to navigate the entire Arctic ice. Scientists estimate that this has not happened in 125,000 years. The Northwest Passage opened on August 25, 2008, and the rest of the ice tongue blocking the Northern Sea Route dissolved a few days later. Due to the shrinking Arctic, the Beluga group of Bremen, Germany, announced plans to send the first ship through the Northern Sea Route.

Direct effects of rising temperatures

The most direct effect of climate change on humans will probably be the impact that the high temperatures that will be reached will have on them. These extreme temperatures will lead to an increase in the number of deaths, mainly because the cardiovascular system of people with heart disease will not be able to withstand the enormous effort that the body will have to make to stay cool in the hottest periods. For this reason, various doctors have announced[124]​ that global warming could mean an increase in the number of heart-related diseases. In addition to this, these variations in temperature will lead to an increase in respiratory problems, and in episodes of exhaustion and dehydration such as lipothymia.

Another important problem that will trigger this rise in the average temperature of the planet will be the increase, in the layers bordering the atmosphere with the earth, of ozone particles, a gas that although its presence in the stratosphere provides us with enormous benefits by filtering harmful solar rays, at ground level it is highly polluting, which will represent a great inconvenience, mainly for people with asthma and respiratory problems.[125]​.

On the other hand, this increase in temperature will in turn cause a decrease in mortality caused by the extreme cold that occurs in some regions of the planet in the winter period. Because of this, the number of annual deaths due to climate factors may not increase.

Palutikof and other scientists estimated in 1996 that an increase of 1 °C in the global average temperature would mean, in the area comprising the United Kingdom and Wales, a reduction of 7,000 deaths annually.[126] In turn, an article by Keatinge and others published in 2000 suggests that any increase in mortality due to the increase in temperature will be more than offset by the enormous decrease in the number of deaths caused by the cold.[127]​.

However, a government report shows, in the United Kingdom, a decrease in mortality due to the warming experienced until this last decade, but predicts an increase in the number of deaths in the future if warming continues as before.[128]​.

The heat waves in Europe in 2003 caused the death of between twenty-two thousand to thirty-five thousand people.[129] Peter A. Stott, of the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, has estimated with a reliability of 90% that past human influence on the climate was the cause of this heat wave reaching at least twice as destructive power as it would have been without this human influence.[130]

As an interesting fact, it should be added that in the United Kingdom more than a hundred people die each year from cold, while twice as many die from heat.[131]​.

Disease spread

Global warming can extend the zones of action of the viral vectors "Vector (biology)"), promoting the transmission of infectious diseases such as dengue[132]​ and malaria.[133]​[134]​ In less developed countries, this will simply further enhance the high incidence rates of these diseases, while in more developed countries, in which these diseases had been eradicated, or were controlled by vaccination, or simply with hygienic measures or pesticides, the consequences will be felt more in the economy than in health. Additionally, disease vectors released by the melting of polar ice or by the expansion of the geographic ranges of existing vectors could lead to the return of some ancient pests.[135]​.

The World Health Organization (WHO-WHO) has warned that global warming could increase the number of diseases caused by parasites throughout Europe, mainly due to an increase in populations of ticks, mosquitoes, flies and intestinal parasites. Also other diseases, such as malaria, could reappear in areas that include developed countries, such as Europe, whose last epidemic took place in the Netherlands in 1950, and the United States, in which malaria has been endemic in at least 36 states until 1940.[136]​ being completely eradicated in 1949, with the introduction of DDT.[137]​.

It has also recently been discovered that malaria has begun to occur in the high regions of New Guinea, where due to its too cold climate, the carrying mosquitoes could not survive until a few years ago.[138]​.

The WHO estimates 150,000 deaths annually as a result of climate change, of which half will be located in the Asia and Pacific region.[139]​ Each year, increasing levels of smog can cause millions of premature deaths.[135]​.

Child population

On April 29, 2008, a report from UNICEF (United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund) reported that global warming is reducing the quality of life of the most vulnerable children and making it more difficult, due to the reduction in access to drinking water and the food reserves that this implies, mainly in Africa and Asia. Likewise, diseases, disasters and violence are expected to intensify and become more frequent, worsening the future of the world's poorest children.[140]​.

Cognitive abilities

There could be significant declines in human cognitive abilities due to the possible tripling (by the end of the century) of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.[135]​.

Se han detectado en todo el mundo los efectos del cambio climático en los sistemas humanos, en su mayoría debido al calentamiento o cambios en los patrones de precipitación "Precipitación (meteorología)"), o ambos. La producción de trigo y maíz a nivel mundial se ha visto afectada por el cambio climático. Pese a que la productividad agrícola se ha incrementado en algunas regiones de latitudes medias, como el Reino Unido y en el noreste de China, las pérdidas económicas debidas a fenómenos meteorológicos extremos han aumentado a nivel mundial. Ha habido una mortalidad vinculada al cambio de frío a calor en algunas regiones como resultado del calentamiento. Sus efectos se observan en más regiones que antes, en todos los continentes y a lo largo de zonas oceánicas.[141]​.

Los futuros impactos sociales del cambio climático serán desiguales.[142]​ Se espera que muchos riesgos aumenten con mayores magnitudes de calentamiento global.[143]​ Todas las regiones están en riesgo de sufrir impactos negativos.[144]​ Las zonas de baja latitud y de menor desarrollo se enfrentan a los mayores peligros.[145]​ Un estudio de 2015 concluyó que el crecimiento económico (producto interno bruto) de los países más pobres se verá perjudicado por el calentamiento global proyectado mucho más de lo que se creía anteriormente.[146]​.

Un metaanálisis de 56 estudios concluyó en 2014 que cada grado de temperatura adicional aumentará la violencia hasta un 20 %, la que incluye riñas, crímenes violentos, agitación social o guerras.[147]​.

Los ejemplos de impactos incluyen:.

En ausencia de un ajuste significativo de cómo miles de millones de humanos llevan a cabo sus vidas, es probable que partes de la Tierra se vuelvan inhabitables y otras partes horriblemente inhóspitas, tan pronto como a fines de este siglo.[135]​ Miami, Bangladés y otras bajas áreas costeras podrían perderse en este siglo.[135]​ Ciudades como Karachi y Kolkata serán inhabitables.[135]​.

indigenous peoples

Indigenous peoples are among those most affected by climate change, since their survival depends on the natural resources of their environment and any change, such as extreme droughts, can threaten their lives. Due to the decrease in water, these people lose their cultural terrain and way of life for generations, where multiple cultures have created social, cultural and artistic forms around the ecosystem,[156]​ causing a displacement of indigenous peoples to developed cities.

In a report published in 2009, the NGO Survival International denounced the impact of climate change mitigation measures on indigenous peoples, such as biofuels, hydropower, forest conservation and carbon offsetting.[157] According to the report, such measures make it easier for governments and companies to violate their rights and claim and exploit their lands.

Climate change has altered the livelihoods of indigenous peoples in the Arctic and there is emerging evidence of its impacts on the livelihoods of indigenous peoples in other regions.

Floods

As a consequence of rising sea levels, flooding is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements on small islands and large deltas.[158][159] This could lead to homelessness in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, as well as loss of homeland for people in the Maldives and Tuvalu.[160]

Development

The combined effects of global warming can have particularly serious consequences for people and countries without the resources to mitigate them. This can slow economic development and poverty reduction, and make it more difficult to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.[161]​.

In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development and environmental non-governmental organizations, issued a report on the effects of climate change on development.

Infrastructure

Continued degradation of permafrost will likely lead to unstable infrastructure in the Arctic regions or Alaska before 2100. Consequently, it will impact roads, pipelines and buildings, as well as water distribution, and cause slope failures.[162]​.

Security

The Military Advisory Board, a committee of American generals and admirals, released a report titled *National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. The report predicts that global warming will have widespread security implications.[163]

British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett stated that "An unstable climate will exacerbate several current issues of conflict, such as migration and competition for resources."[164] Several weeks before this, United States Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NB) and Richard Durbin (D-IL) presented a bill to the US Congress that required the collaboration of federal intelligence agencies to assess the challenges posed by change. climate.[165]​.

In November 2007, two Washington lobby groups, the established Center for Strategic and International Studies and the recently established Center for a New American Security, published a report analyzing the global security implications of three global warming scenarios.

The report considers three different scenarios, two with an approximate 30-year perspective, and another for the period after 2100. Its general conclusions are summarized below:[166]​.

Education

Climate change is having a significant impact on education, although its effects are often overlooked in climate policy discussions. Natural disasters related to climate change, such as fires, extreme heat waves, floods and other increasingly frequent weather events, have destroyed schools and forced their closure. Additionally, they have damaged the infrastructure necessary for access to education, such as bridges, roads and learning materials, which disrupts the educational process.[169]​.

These interruptions have negative repercussions on learning, as well as the physical and mental health of students. In the most serious cases, academic staff, students and their families have suffered injuries or even lost their lives due to these disasters, which could have devastating long-term consequences for education systems. The climate crisis also affects other fundamental aspects of education, such as air quality, access to drinking water, food production and housing security. These problems increase truancy, encourage dropouts, and threaten the well-being and safety of students. [169]​.

However, education also plays a crucial role in mitigating these effects, by improving students' resilience to climate events. By providing students with the skills necessary to respond and adapt to climate disasters, education not only reduces people's vulnerability to climate change, but also empowers them with the ability to innovate and find solutions. This is especially important in contexts where subsistence resources are at risk.[170]​[171]​.

Furthermore, people with higher levels of education tend to more fully recognize the challenges posed by climate change, adopt more environmentally friendly behaviors, and show a greater preference for policies that respond to the climate crisis.[172]​Given this reality, educational systems must adapt to protect students, especially the most vulnerable, from these impacts.[169]​.

The importance of education in the fight against climate change is widely recognized. UNESCO emphasizes that education is a key component in promoting climate action, as it allows people to understand and confront the repercussions of the climate crisis. Through education, the necessary knowledge, values ​​and skills are provided so that individuals can act as agents of change. Internationally, the importance of education and training in the fight against climate change has been widely recognized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement and the Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) program call on governments to educate, empower and involve all stakeholders, including large groups, in the formulation of policies and actions related to climate change.[173]​.

However, it is important not to ignore that the education sector is also being deeply affected by climate change and natural disasters. In Latin America and the Caribbean, for example, 277 million people have been affected by climate change in the last 22 years, and it is expected that this region will be one of the most impacted if the climate crisis continues to worsen.[169]​.