Beginnings in Mexico
Contenido
Particularmente en el caso mexicano, el llamado crac del 29 no fue el detonante para su depresión. En realidad, este suceso comenzaba a mostrar señales de vida desde 1925 principalmente por la disminución en las exportaciones como lo fue el petróleo, el cual fue causado por el descubrimiento y explotación de nuevos pozos en Venezuela. Las consecuencias del crac y de las distintas políticas gubernamentales tuvieron un alcance internacional debido a la interdependencia financiera existente. En el caso particular de México, la relación era sumamente estrecha. Cualquier modificación en el mercado estadounidense afecta directamente al mexicano.
La exportación de minerales representaba una suma importancia al ser el sesenta por ciento del total, modificando de manera significativa la balanza comercial. Además, el flujo de capitales provenientes de Estados Unidos disminuyó en gran medida siendo la entrada de dinero más importante del país. Otro sector afectado fue el de la minería. Tanto la producción como la cantidad de trabajadores disminuyeron a más de la mitad en dicha época. Cayó la demanda estadounidense por las materias primas y bienes manufacturados. En contraste, el gobierno de Herbert Hoover validó severas restricciones comerciales al establecer altos precios de aranceles y otras leyes de índole proteccionista. Por otro lado, a pesar de la gran interdependencia entre los dos países mencionados, la economía mexicana se encontraba en un estado de vulnerabilidad. Desde la crisis interna de 1925, la producción caía de manera significativa. Los acuerdos mexicanos relacionados con el intercambio se redujeron un cuatro por ciento entre los años de 1926 y 1929, a pesar de la gran demanda de minerales para exportación.
Otro de los sectores afectados fue el de la agricultura con la presencia de malas cosechas en 1929. Finalmente, el sector con mayores consecuencias fue el financiero debido al aumento de los precios de los préstamos. Se creó una distorsión negativa al ver que los precios de productos nacionales no iban en caída.[3].
Economic structure of Mexico at the beginning of the 1930s
In the 1920s, three fundamental elements began to be taken into account for the study of the structure of the economy. One of them is the characterization of economic groups within the national economy that interact with each other. The second element, from the sensory point of view, analyzes the structure of the economy; This element focuses on the balance of payments, on relative productivities and their participation in product and growth. Finally, the third element that is taken into account is the study of the external sector that influenced the transmission of the problem within the country in the enclave sector.[4].
Basic Economic Groups.
The four basic economic groups that make up the Mexican economy are: the external, the urban, the semi-rural and the rural. These date back to long before the 1930s. The external sector essentially included agricultural activities, mining and the oil industry, mainly for export. These activities were called “enclaves”, since they were carried out by a minimum number of workers and their production was mostly for export and the owners were foreigners. The industries in charge of this were enclaves since they had limited links with the rest of the economy. Furthermore, this sector responded to the costs of extracting natural resources and growing crops for export and to the conditions of the international market.
The rural sector constituted the largest population concentration group in the country with 66.5% living in communities of 2,500 inhabitants during the 1930s. This sector absorbed 68% of the population for work forces. The group had no contact with the rest of the economy, since it focused on agriculture and production for self-consumption. This sector depended on climatic conditions and agrarian reform programs that helped its prosperity, as well as on other groups.
In the semi-rural sector, there were communities of between 2,500 and 15,000 people. 30% of the population belonged to this group in 1930. Most of the individuals carried out semi-commercial agricultural activities, acquired other goods manufactured domestically or industrially, and also provided some communication and commerce services. This is why it was called the transition sector.
The urban sector represented a minority in the Mexican population, it only represented 17.5% of the total population, and this group was the most important within the market for the industrial sectors and those that provided some service.
The external sector directly influenced the country's economy. The demand for labor within said industry changed according to the production it generated. The external sector also had an important collection of tax revenues, for example: taxes paid by industries, when there was a boom within the extractive sector, in government spending and aggregate demand, the same thing happened. When the industry encountered difficulties, either due to a lack of external demand or low tax revenue, government spending and aggregate demand decreased in the same way. Finally, the external sector affected the behavior of the industrial sector since it required both capital and foreign raw materials. The urban group was the most affected by both the decisions made by the government and the fluctuations of the external sector.
Through the flow of currency and fiscal links, a great impact was had on the modern sector. There were two types of relationships between sectors. The first involved links between producer and consumer. The rural sector is isolated from the economy and the external sector was producing small portions of its production for industrial use or self-consumption. The semi-rural sector produced for its own consumption and the surpluses were marketed in the different cities. The second talks about how the urban sector offered industrial goods, services to other sectors and for their own consumption.[5].
Sectoral structure
The population is dispersed within the communities, for example, 66% live in rural communities with a maximum of 2,500 inhabitants and 17.5% live in cities with more than 15,000 inhabitants. This reduced the market and increased transportation and transaction costs. Another limitation of the market for industrial goods and services was the low agricultural productivity that existed. On the other hand, it could be observed that the Mexican economy was segmented both in labor force and in sensory distribution of income, showing great differences between the less productive sector (rural) and the industrial and services sector. 52% of goods acquired abroad were imports into Mexico of services and merchandise and 42% of their value was sent abroad as remittances. 95% of exports were in merchandise such as gold and silver. The mining and oil industries were responsible for 80% of the transfers, this reflects that Mexico was exporting substantial quantities of goods and could only import goods for a fraction of this amount (57.4%).
Thanks to the above, variations in the level of exports were not related to purchasing power. This relationship depends on the relative distribution of profits, wages and raw materials used in export industries and the prices of imports. It should be noted that only 2.2% of all imports were covered by new long-term foreign investment. This figure shows that most of the foreign investment was financed by reinvestment of profits and with internal resources.
With respect to export products, gold and silver deposits and coins reached 16% of the exported value in the period between 1925 and 1928, oil and its derivatives obtained 28%, while 29% was made up of other mineral products. Another important group of export products was unprocessed agricultural products, which reached 24%.
Between 1925 and 1928, consumer goods and tobacco represented 13% of total imports, while durable goods only represented 21%. Capital goods were the most imported product with 28%, followed by raw materials with 26% and the rest represented unclassified goods. This reflects that the economy was struggling to domestically produce goods that required relatively simple technology, such as some processed foods and non-durable consumer goods. Even with these efforts, Mexico still did not produce capital goods and strictly depended on other markets to supply this sector. This is reflected in its commercial dependence on the United States in the 1920s since they bought 66% of Mexican exported products and sold 69% of their imports to Mexico.[4].
The Enclaves
Enclaves are the forward and backward links, this reflects the demand that specific industries generated for domestic inputs and the benefit of domestically producing certain goods, such as oil and minerals, so that other industries could use them as inputs. To know if a link is an enclave, the return value of exports must be measured, which is only measured in comparative terms.
There are three key characteristics of the 1930s enclave. First, it was estimated that about 85% of the export sector belonged to foreigners: oil, minerals and agricultural products. Of this percentage, around 97% of industries were owned by foreigners and made up 97% of all exports. Second, these industries were very limited in their forward links, since 81% of their production was destined for the external market, which was practically all oil production, and many of these products were reimported after being processed abroad. The third characteristic refers to the return value of exports. It is defined as the part of the value of exports that remains within the country and takes into consideration the nationality of the owner, the amount spent on taxes, workers, transportation, national raw materials, etc. This allows us to measure what effect external fluctuations had on the volume and value of exports and on domestic aggregate demand.
In addition, the return value can also give insight into the transmission mechanism of external economic shocks. Only in the case of oil it was said that 15% of gross production was allocated to paying taxes. The return value of exports in 1926 was two-thirds, compared to 58% in 1940 after the oil expropriation. Oil shows a very low return value, 39% in 1926. Mining had a return value twice that of the oil industry, that percentage reached 99%. Other activities returned with a value of between 82% and 87%, the corresponding proportion of the industry in foreign hands varied from 12% to 86%. The greater the proportion of national inputs in gross production, the return value of exports will be even greater.[4].