En el caso de la burbuja en España, se dieron unas grandes diferencias entre el incremento medio del IPC y los sueldos (de un 3 %) y las subidas anuales de la vivienda. Entre 1997 y 2005, el precio de la vivienda subió un 130% más que el IPC.[39]​.

En agosto de 2007 estalló la burbuja inmobiliaria de los Estados Unidos, a raíz de la crisis de las hipotecas subprime o hipotecas basura. Poco después el Instituto Nacional de Estadística español anunció una fuerte bajada de la compraventa de viviendas (un 27% en el primer trimestre de 2008) y de la contratación de hipotecas (un 25% en enero de 2008), por lo que ahora se considera ese momento el de la explosión de la burbuja española.[40]​.

Las asociaciones de constructores, principales beneficiarios del alza de precios, solían negar la existencia de la burbuja, calificándola de «mito» interesado,[41]​ al igual que otros sectores directamente vinculados al negocio de la construcción,[42]​ para los cuales no existió una burbuja, sino un simple «boom inmobiliario». Por su parte, los sectores en desacuerdo con la coyuntura económica, más vinculados a los consumidores, principales afectados por el alza de precios y las dificultades de acceso a la vivienda, insistieron en valorar los mismos datos en sentido contrario,[43]​ lo mismo que otros colectivos orientados a la crítica social y el ecologismo.[44]​.

En este sentido es importante tener en cuenta que las propias expectativas sobre la evolución futura de un mercado influyen en el comportamiento real del mismo. Es decir, si muchos potenciales compradores estiman que está próxima una futura caída de los precios, pueden optar por esperar a que ésta ocurra para comprar. Eso provocaría que se redujera la demanda actual y, por lo tanto, que los precios realmente caigan. El mismo procedimiento tendría lugar a la inversa si lo que se espera es un incremento.[45]​.

Por otro lado, la opacidad que caracteriza el mercado de la vivienda en España impidió hacer valoraciones exactas de la situación: como más abajo se verá, una misma entidad enviaba mensajes de calma y alarma al mismo tiempo, las estadísticas nunca fueron sistemáticas y se caracterizaban por la dispersión, cuando no eran simplemente contradictorias, permaneciendo parte del negocio inmobiliario oculto al fisco, al moverse en parte con dinero negro o en forma de sobornos.[46]​ En ese sentido, algunos especialistas denunciaron incluso una campaña de opacidad y ocultamiento de los medios de comunicación que, basándose en intereses económicos, habrían evitado mencionar la verdadera naturaleza del auge del precio de la vivienda[47]​.

En todo caso, en los primeros meses del año 2008 la fuerte desaceleración del mercado de la vivienda en España ya permitía hablar a algunos economistas (como Alan Greenspan, exgobernador de la FED) de una burbuja especulativa y de su estallido,[48]​ En ese mismo sentido, en abril de 2008 los propios constructores y promotores reconocían que habían «subido mucho los precios y (...) expulsado a los consumidores del mercado», reconociendo implícitamente una sobrevaloración de los activos inmobiliarios.[49]​ dibujando un panorama sombrío para el sector y, por ende, para toda la estructura económica española. En el año 2009 ya nadie ponía en duda que una enorme burbuja inmobiliaria especulativa había estallado en todo el mundo, sintiéndose con especial virulencia en España, que se ha visto por ello inmersa en una profunda recesión económica.[50]​.

Según un cable de 2005 de la embajada estadounidense en Madrid, ya entonces podían advertir los síntomas de una sobrevaloración muy considerable, citando como causas de ella la inexistencia del contrapeso del mercado del alquiler debido a una legislación desfavorable -que era poco probable que cambiara debido a presiones internas en los principales partidos, según indicaba el mismo cable. También especuló con éxito sobre que, cuando la burbuja estallara y la situación financiera se recrudeciera, el gobierno que estuviera en el poder convocaría elecciones anticipadas.[51]​.

General assessments of the situation

Although the data on the real estate market were once accepted, as we will see, by the different actors, there was not always agreement on the valuation made of such data. The Bank of Spain itself rejected the idea that it was a speculative bubble:

However, the official reports of that entity also recognized an overvaluation of real estate assets, and already in 2002 it warned about a possible depreciation of housing.[53] García Montalvo published in 2003 one of the first articles on the formation of a real estate bubble in Spain.[54]​.

Those who denied the existence of a speculative bubble, and at most accepted a small overvaluation of assets, argued the good state of the Spanish economy,[55]​ the employment data and sustained growth, and the very low default rates, attributing the increase in prices to the pressure of demand.[56]​.

At the other end of the scale were the criticisms of those who considered that we were facing a real estate bubble with unpredictable consequences:.

In general, from critical positions it was stated that the dependence of the Spanish economy on the construction industry, as well as excessive indebtedness, could cause an economic recession in the long run, especially due to the rise in interest rates, which would erode domestic consumption and increase the unemployment rate and the "Delinquency (Default)" rates, ultimately causing a devaluation of real estate assets.[58]​.

Price and number of homes built

According to reports from the Bank of Spain[59]​ between 1976 and 2003, the price of housing in Spain has doubled in real terms, which means, in nominal terms, a multiplication by 16. This places Spain in third or fourth place in the OECD in housing price growth. According to the Bank of Spain, in the period 1997-2006 the price of housing in Spain had increased around 150% in nominal terms, which corresponds to 100% in real terms[52]​ The maximum price was reached at the end of the bubble, in 2007; At that time the decline in housing prices in Spain began. According to the INE "National Statistics Institute (Spain)"), in the first quarter of 2013 the price fell by 6.6% on average and in an interannual rate -compared to the first quarter of 2012-, by 14.3%.[60]​.

For the economist José García Montalvo, the price of housing in Spain still has to adjust by 35.4% in the coming years. Montalvo argues that in view of the PER data (ratio of purchase price and disposable income that must be over 4 years), which in the first quarter of 2013 was still at 6.2 years, prices should fall by 35.4% more to recover long-term PER levels (per 4). This decrease would have to be added to the one carried out since 2007 and would imply a total drop between the maximum peak of that year 2007 and the valley of 53.3%.[61]​[62]​[63]​.

Regarding the number of homes started, another report from the same entity indicates that between 1999 and 2001 more than half a million homes had been started per year,[64]​ and the number has not stopped increasing. Between the years 2000 and 2005, around 800,000 homes were projected per year, of which around 300,000 were built per year. Specifically, according to the visas issued by the College of Architects, during 2003, 700,000 homes were planned,[65]​ in 2004 around 500,000, and in 2005, 800,000. In 2006, more than 800,000 homes were approved.[66]​.

However, it must be remembered that not all the approved works end up being built. It is estimated that a period of two years may pass between the approval and the completion of the work. According to data published by the Ministry of Housing, only part of them were completed.[67] Specifically, 525,331 homes in 2003, 586,092 in 2004 and 612,066 in 2005.

At the same time, one must consider the fact that only part of the completed homes are sold, since in 2004 a total of 295,000 were sold and in 2005, some 336,000 new homes were sold,[68]​ which would indicate an accumulation of new homes. Significantly, the number of empty homes in Spain was 3.35 million in 2005, which represents 14% of the total.[69]​.

There was, therefore, relative agreement when quantifying both the prices and the number of homes built. That agreement was not transferred to its valuation.

Real estate debt

One of the main effects of this situation is the growth of household debt. Given that the purchase of housing, whether to live in or to invest, is usually carried out with mortgage loans, the increase in price implies an increase in debt. The debt of the Spanish tripled in less than ten years. In 1986 it represented 34% of disposable income, in 1997 it rose to 52% and in 2005 it reached 105%. In 2006, a quarter of the population was in debt for more than 15 years.[70]​ From 1990 to 2004, the average duration of mortgages increased from 12 to 25 years.[51]​ The Bank of Spain itself reported that family savings in 2006 have been overwhelmed by debt.[71]​.

In fact, the Bank of Spain has warned, year after year, about the high indebtedness of Spanish households,[72]​ which, according to the institution, is unsustainable. The debt of individuals reached 832,289 million euros at the end of 2006, with a growth of 18.53% year-on-year.[73]​.

The Bank of Spain also warned about the excessive indebtedness of the construction industry.[74]​.

The president of the Spanish Chambers of Commerce, Javier Gómez Navarro, stated in an event organized by the Association of Economic Information Journalists, that the entities "will never recover" 30% of the debt contracted with the real estate sector. According to the Bank of Spain, this debt amounts to 325,000 million euros and until December 2009 there were 96,824 million in doubtful loans.[75]​

The president of the Chambers regretted that the Spanish financial system did not admit from the beginning the impact of the crisis on its assets, and held the Bank of Spain jointly responsible for this: «In Spain they have never wanted to recognize that the financial system was affected, which would have forced the banks to capitalize. The policy until now has been to buy time, to make provisions, but time is running out."[76]​.

Desde diferentes instancias se trató de explicar el incremento de precios, de número de viviendas y el aumento del endeudamiento durante el periodo 1998-2007. Algunas de esas causas son internas, propias de la coyuntura económica y social española. Otras hay que relacionarlas con la situación económica mundial.

El Banco de España, en sucesivos informes,[77]​ así como otras instituciones de análisis, explican la situación a partir de los siguientes condicionantes:.

Macroeconomic factors (liquidity)

A real estate bubble cannot be explained without the massive contribution of liquidity, money for new mortgages. On the other hand, historically low interest rates for Spain due to its entry into the euro explain the system's ability to raise prices (people could pay more). These two factors are essential pieces in a real estate bubble.

The excess liquidity came from various factors:.

• - On the one hand, the ease with which banks gave mortgages and loans to companies and individuals. The poor management of the risk of non-payment and the laxity of the control authorities (Bank of Spain) facilitate this mechanism. This mechanism is similar to what happened in the United States with the 'subprime'.

• - The ability to obtain almost unlimited capital from banks, necessary to be able to offer new mortgages. The monetary policies of the large central banks facilitated this credit expansion (which is the same as liquidity).

Demographic factors

Several demographic factors explain the rise in demand "Demand (economy)") for housing in recent years. The foreign population in Spain went from 499,773 (294,726 Europeans and 205,047 non-Europeans) in 1995 to 1,159,060 (449,881 Europeans and 659,179 non-Europeans) in 2001.[79]​.

The immigrant population in Spain suffered spectacular growth between 1998 and 2006, going from 637,085 (1.60% of the population) to 4,482,568 (9.93% of the population), being the third highest immigration rate in the world. At the same time, the Spanish birth rate suffered a notable decline in the mid-1970s. The entire generation that was born at that time, according to the Bank of Spain, reached the age of emancipation throughout the nineties, thus increasing the demand for housing. Specifically, in 2002 the Bank of Spain calculated a pressure on demand of 600,000 young people per year.[80] Other demographic factors to take into account to explain the increase in housing demand are the growth in the number of divorces (with an increase of 79% annually in the period 1993-2003), tourist residential demand (1,500,000 people in 2003) and the demand generated by second homes. (3.6 million second homes in 2003, which represents 1 in every 11 Spaniards).[81] The Bank of Spain also points out that the number of members per household has decreased, as well as life expectancy has increased, increasing the number of households per inhabitant.

Some specialists, such as García-Montalvo, explain that factors such as demographics[82]​ have a clear influence but do not by themselves explain the rise in prices without many other factors.[83]​.

In 2012 the number of births fell for the fourth consecutive year, falling by 3.9%. The average age at motherhood increased to 31.6 years and the average number of children per woman fell to 1.32. During 2012, 405,615 people died in Spain, which was 4.6% more than the previous year. This is the largest annual increase of the decade.[84]​.

Economic and financial factors

The last decade of the century ended with a period of low indebtedness for the Spanish, at least in relation to the rest of the Europeans. Added to this is the spectacular lowering of interest rates and the Euribor to historically low levels (see graph) below inflation. On the other hand, in Spain there has been a tax system that favors the purchase of housing with reductions in the Personal Income Tax (Personal Income Tax (Spain)") (it is estimated that such tax benefits allow access to more expensive homes, between 15 and 22%,[85]​) while renting lacked aid during that period.

Other elements are the increase in per capita income and the maintenance of very high employment levels, combined with sustained economic growth, although salary increases have been more than moderate. The Bank of Spain explained it like this in 2002:

On the other hand, it is important to note that in the face of the revaluation of housing (more than 10% annually in the peak period), the profitability of stock markets and investment funds has been low. The Bank, for its part, taking advantage of the economic situation (especially the low interest rate and reduced delinquencies), provided all types of mortgage products, with increasingly longer terms (in 2007, 50-year mortgages began to be offered).

Also from a financial point of view, the existence of an "excess capital" is noted from various sources (institutions, private investment funds, public companies, limited companies, venture capital investors, hedge funds, private groups and individuals), in search of investment products.[86] Likewise, the influence of Spain's entry into the euro system is notable, which meant the emergence of black money in search of investment before January 1, 2002. Despite that the entry of the new currency should have meant the disappearance of a good part of that capital, five years later not only had it not disappeared but it had increased.[87]​[88]​ In fact, payment with black money would affect 60% of real estate transactions in Spain.[89]​ The lack of control over protected housing is also common, which does not belong to the free market for a stipulated period, but is sold without the authorities carrying out the corresponding inspections.[90]​.

The poor investments and forecasts of a third of the Spanish financial sector had to be rescued. The FROB acted as a rescue fund and in its December 2019 report, accounting for the aid from the FROB, Deposit Guarantee Fund (FGD) and Sareb, it indicates that rescue processes have been managed for entities in the banking system that represented 38.3% of the total deposits covered in the following entities with the amounts in millions of euros: Bankia (22,424), Caixa Catalunya (Catalunya Banc) (12,599), Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo (12,474), NovaCaixaGalicia (9,404), Banco de Valencia (6,103), Caja Castilla-La Mancha (4,215), Sareb (2,192), Unnim (1997), BMN (1,645), Banco CEISS (1,559), Cajasur (1,192), Banca Cívica (977), Caja3 (407), Banco Gallego (245) and Liberbank (124).[91]​.

Regulatory and structural factors

It is noted that successive regulations regarding land, rent and urban planning powers have contributed decisively to the development of the housing market. The percentage of land that developers must cede to city councils has been reduced, and all unprotected land has been declared developable land. On the other hand, there has been intervention in the rental market, eliminating indefinite contracts and deductions, all without establishing clear measures for the protection of the landlord (which enshrines an inadequate and long procedural system that hinders the rights of the owner and leaves him defenseless in the event of non-payment by the tenant).

Another important element has been the lack of financing of local entities (mainly city councils), which, together with their broad powers to organize the territory, has led to local estates being financed largely thanks to the construction market, to such an extent that calls have been made from the construction industry to reform the law on financing local entities.[92]​ The power of city councils to arbitrarily decide which land is developable and which land is not. It also gives rise to widespread urban corruption.[93] City councils make the supply of developable land artificially scarce, raising its price. Regarding the VPO programs (Officially Protected Housing or subsidized by public administrations for social purposes), their number and scope were significantly reduced in the 1996-2004 period.

Finally, it is generally accepted that construction costs do not explain the increase in prices, having hardly increased in the period: in fact, until 2003 construction costs had suffered an interannual decrease of 0.8% in real terms, in contrast to the sustained rise in housing prices.[94]​.

Social factors

According to some analyses, in Spain there is a social trend towards real estate ownership. The rate of owners compared to renters is 80-85%[95]​, the highest in Europe after Ireland (the European average is 61%). It is difficult to estimate whether this trend is a product of cultural factors or simply a consequence of the tax benefits that the purchase entails and the poor rental market, as well as its high price: rents rise in Spain by 4.1% annually (compared to a European average of 1.6%, which in the eurozone does not exceed 1.3%)[94][96]​.

External factors

From various sources it has been warned that the increase in the price of real estate is not exclusive to Spain. Quite the contrary, all industrialized countries have shown abnormal growth in prices since 1998. Those who claim that Spain is immersed in an economic bubble warn that this bubble is global. To do this, they rely, among other arguments, on various reports from the North American Federal Reserve (FED)[97]​ and the OECD[98]​ that reflect an increase in the price of real estate in practically all industrialized countries, with the exceptions of Germany, Japan[99]​ and Switzerland. In parallel with this growth, a credit bubble would also have developed, favored by the low interest rates that have been established in the main economies of the world.

The origin of this situation, according to certain analysts, would be, on the one hand, in the bursting of the.com bubble at the end of the 90s, which would have caused a massive flight of money in search of safe returns, and on the other, in the systematic lowering of interest rates after the attacks of September 11, 2001.

The speculation factor

Without there being express recognition by the economic authorities, various analysts have established that among the main reasons for the real estate bubble is the massive entry of small investors who, in the heat of sustained profits exceeding double digits annually, would have entered the buying and selling market, either as a simple investment (from buying off-plan to acquiring a finished work, and then selling at a higher price) or as a way to access a better quality home (through bridging mortgages). The low interest rates (unprecedented in Spain until the entry into the euro) and the low profitability of other investments, as well as the ease of obtaining credit, would have acted as an incentive for this situation, causing oversupply and depletion of demand in the midst of the expansionary phase of construction companies, which could not stop production in time, due to the long-term regime under which the sector works.

In addition, appraisal companies contributed to this speculative spiral by overvaluing a large number of properties.[100]​ As a result of the economic crisis, major deficiencies have been revealed in some of these companies, the only ones authorized to carry out appraisals for mortgage loan applications, because their technicians, generally self-employed who charge a small percentage of the fees for each appraisal carried out for said companies, often with little experience and with very little advice from them, can be manipulated. by the appraisal companies, which in turn, when they are not linked to the banks, are highly dependent on the financial entities, which are the ones that provide them with most of their work, and which may be interested in an upward valuation of the properties to increase the amount of the loans granted and, consequently, the interest benefits.

With the publication of the parliamentarians' assets in September 2011, it came to light that practically all of them have invested in housing,[101]​ with some even having more than 20 real estate properties,[102]​ which partly explains the lack of regulation of real estate speculation in this sense.[103]​.

Si bien la Constitución española garantiza en su artículo 47 el acceso a una vivienda digna y ordena a los poderes públicos evitar la especulación del suelo, y a pesar de la relajación en las condiciones para la adquisición de préstamos hipotecarios y del aumento de unidades residenciales puestas a la venta, los precios elevados han impedido durante el período 2008-2013 el acceso a la vivienda a una parte importante de la población incluso en régimen de alquiler, especialmente la que por su edad no pudo adquirirla antes del comienzo del ciclo alcista.

El informe anual sobre los jóvenes en España del año 2006[104]​ establece que el 51% de los españoles de entre 18 y 34 años vive en el domicilio familiar, y el 47% en su propia casa (alquilada, comprada o compartida). Según el mismo organismo, en el año 2003 el precio medio de la vivienda para el tramo de edad comprendida entre los 18 y 24 años supera en un 210% el precio máximo tolerable, y para las mujeres un 10% más, debido a la diferencia salarial media[105]​.

Otro fenómeno que ha aparecido durante este periodo es el mobbing inmobiliario,[106]​ en especial contra inquilinos de renta antigua, a quienes los caseros hostigan para que abandonen el inmueble con objeto de obtener plusvalías con él.

Pese a todo, el parque de viviendas vacías en España era en 2005 de 3,35 millones, lo que supone un 14% del total, la tasa más alta del mundo[69]​.

Por otro lado, la enorme superficie urbanizada entre los años 1987 y 2006 significó el aumento en más de 1 millón de hectáreas de la superficie artificial (con una tasa entre los años 2000 y 2006 doble que en los años anteriores). En el Informe de 2010 del Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad en España se estimaba que la urbanización era la mayor amenaza para la biodiversidad en el país.[107]​[108]​.

Measures proposed by the authorities

The Ministry of Housing, as soon as the socialist government came to power in 2004, rejected the idea of ​​carrying out its electoral promises of creating 800,000 homes (including in this figure the rentals that could be produced during its term).

The government launched the idea of ​​creating "mini-apartments" under the euphemism of "housing solutions", which was widely criticized by the opposition Popular Party.

The Central Government also did not increase taxes on uninhabited homes or second homes that they had promised, and which was considered necessary in studies by several universities.[109] Other administrations that had made similar promises, such as the Madrid City Council in 2004, also failed to fulfill them.

The idea of ​​putting empty homes on the market through tax pressure has been abandoned and instead it is intended to put them out as rental homes, modifying the legislation to do so. According to some analysts, this can cause investors to buy homes to later rent them, making access to home ownership even more difficult; From other sectors it is indicated that even if these investors became enriched, the consequence would be a drop in rental housing prices, so the social benefit would be higher.

The so-called “Shock Plan” of the socialist government that won the elections in 2004 is limited to increasing the number of protected homes by 79,000. Those responsible for the Ministry of Housing themselves recognize that this will not solve the difficult access of citizens to housing. On the other hand, the uselessness or effectiveness of a greater creation of officially protected housing (VPO) to reduce housing prices is in doubt, since fraud and irregularities have been detected in its planning, construction, allocation and sale mechanisms.

In communities where there is no effective regulation of protected housing, VPO is being sold and bought at market prices, representing an important source of black money laundering, making it ineffective as social aid. In other places the VPO mechanism has proven to be an adequate solution that, in view of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, can benefit municipalities, builders and consumers.

There are communities in which a very particular interpretation has been given regarding the political solutions to be applied in the face of the lack of Protected Housing. Thus, it is worth highlighting, to cite just one example, the paradox that in the Community of Madrid, governed by Esperanza Aguirre of the Popular Party since 2001, the maximum price modules that serve as a reference for developers to sell different types of subsidized housing have experienced a continuous and significant increase in line with the evolution of housing prices in the free market. The last increase of these carried out by the Community of Madrid to, in the words of the current Minister of Housing María Isabel Mariño, encourage real estate developers to build more protected housing "in the face of the slowdown that the sector is experiencing" was carried out on April 4, 2008, increasing the price of said modules by 31% for protected housing located in the areas of Madrid capital, Alcobendas, Las Rozas, Majadahonda and Pozuelo (zone A), 25% more in municipalities such as Alcalá de Henares, Alcorcón or Parla (zone B) and 20% more in towns such as Cercedilla (zone C).[110]​.

Positions of the different political parties

On September 27, 2005, following a bill by the Parliamentary Group of Izquierda Unida (Spain) "Izquierda Unida (Spain)") IU-ICV on reforms in tax matters on unoccupied homes represented progress in the necessary change in legislation on the matter, although the proposal was rejected by an overwhelming majority, mainly because there were discrepancies around the controversial definition of what could be considered a home. uninhabited.

In January 2007, the Ministry of Economy and Finance was studying the development of the regulations of the Local Treasury Regulatory Law to apply a surcharge of up to 50% on the Real Estate Tax (IBI) on homes that are unoccupied.[111]​.

At that time, the Basque and Catalan governments were considering the possibility of taxing empty homes with a fee. In the case of Euskadi, the proposal was later rejected in the Basque Parliament[112].

During the electoral debate held on November 7, 2011 between the candidates of the PSOE and the PP for the presidency of the Government of Spain, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Mariano Rajoy, they spoke in passing about the real estate sector to blame themselves for the responsibility of the real estate bubble. For Rubalcaba, banks do not lend because they owe a lot and they owe because of the real estate bubble created by the PP. From his point of view, it was the popular governments who fueled speculation with the land liberalization law of 1998.[113]​

However, Rajoy replies, the years in which the most housing was started were 2006, 2005 and 2004, under José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, ensuring that the PSOE "did nothing against speculation and has limited itself to blaming others."[113]​

The socialist candidate criticized the fact that Rajoy wants to rescue the tax relief for the purchase of a habitual residence") or extend the super-reduced VAT to 4%, as well as lower the property transfer tax "Tax on Onerous Asset Transfers (Spain)").

Possible solutions

The Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) (as of August 2010) defends the continuity of the real estate sector and sees no justification for it to stop because there are reserves of one million unsold homes.[114]​

The association believes that "reserves of a certain importance" must be made compatible with the 300,000 homes that are needed every year, so that those that are launched are built in the places where the demand is, in many cases, different from where the current supply is. Its president, Santos González, explained that it cannot be thought that all the necessary properties have already been built for the simple fact that there are close to a million unsold homes.[115]​.

• - The fiscal boost to rehabilitation in most cases will be directed to those who already have a house and not to those who need to acquire one. The Popular Party has expressed its support for lowering VAT for housing repairs.[116]​.

• - The elimination of the housing deduction in 2011 may advance some purchase decisions to continue taking advantage of that tax advantage.

• - The increase of two points in the general VAT as of July 1, 2010 (from 16% to 18%) and of three more points as of September 1, 2012 (from 18% to 21%) (see Value Added Tax (Spain) "Value Added Tax (Spain)") may have no effect given the artificially created expectations that prices will continue to fall: If you continue to think that housing is going to go down by 30%, even if the VAT increases by 2 points (from 16% to 18%), you will believe that you will continue to save 28.79%; 65.71%)[119]​ so that you would not believe that it is profitable for you to wait.

1979-1985

The price of housing began a sustained decline between the years 1979 and 1982, which in real terms (discounting inflation) represented a drop of 35% in just 5 years.[120] After a recovery in 1983 where there was a positive rebound of 6%, the price of housing fell again in 1985 to the levels of 1982. This entire process occurred in a context of economic deterioration after the oil crisis. of 1973 that fully affected Spain, unemployment whose figures rose from 4.7% in 1976 to 21.1% in 1985, as well as the high inflation rate derived from the oil crisis of 1979, where the price of oil multiplied by 2.7 from mid-1978 to 1981.

1985-1992

The year 1985 was especially tough for construction, but, parallel to the increase in economic activity in 1986, there was also a notable acceleration in construction. Cement consumption increased by 10.2% compared to the previous year, new housing construction increased by 10%, and construction expenses grew by 5%. The construction boom was even stronger in 1987, when the industry recorded a 10% increase, the highest growth rate of all Spanish industries. In that same year, the construction sector represented 7% of the country's GDP. Strong industrial expansion continued until 1988, and much of the new construction was concentrated in urban offices, housing, and tourism-related services.

The employment rate had increased in all sectors except the primary, but construction recorded the largest relative increase, 11.2%, as a result of the 88,100 new jobs it created in 1986. For comparison, only 7,300 new jobs were created in construction in 1985, and by 1984 110,400 jobs had been destroyed. At the end of the 1980s, construction jobs made up a third of all Spanish industrial employment. However, at that same time, the sector was still operating at a level considerably below its capacity despite the boom, as its unemployment rate was around 30%.[121]​.

1992-1996

The last upward cycle in housing prices ended, according to the Valuation Society), with an uninterrupted decline in housing prices for six years, from 1990 to 1996.

There was a drop in prices of 1.7% in nominal terms between 1990 and 1993, which means 15% in real terms (taking into account the inflation marked by the CPI). In December 1990, the real price of housing per square meter was €684.00, that is, €933.00 in nominal terms based on the accumulated CPI of 1985 (136.50%). In December 1993 the price in real terms was €576.00 per square meter, that is, €917.00 nominal based on the CPI accumulated since 1985 (159.20%). This represents a real variation of -15.7% (and a nominal variation of -1.71%).

In December 1996, the real price of housing per square meter was €560.00 (€1002.00 nominal, based on the accumulated CPI of 1985, 178.90%). The real variation represented -18.1% (7.39% nominal). According to data from the Sociedad de Tasación, S.A., between the months of December 1990 and 1996 the price of housing rose nominally by 7.39%, but in an inflationary context of 31.06%.

This was the last bearish housing cycle in Spain, with the fall in prices lasting six consecutive years[122].

1996-2003

The price of housing in Madrid between 1996 and 2003 suffered an increase of 176% according to what ABC published on February 11, 2003[123]​.

In October 2003, one of the first warnings was issued that would confirm the existence of a speculative bubble: it was issued by the European Commission, which warned of a doubling of the nominal price in a single year, and noted that "the danger that a significant increase in interest rates or a future deterioration in the labor market could at some point induce a correction in the size of the real estate markets of some Member States."[124] In November, the European Central Bank warns of a downward correction in housing prices.

This year, voices from the academic world were already warning of the real estate bubble, the pressures that were inflating it in a dangerous way, and the need to control it.[125]​.

In the most important stock market in Spain, the Madrid Stock Exchange, the IBEX 35 hit a minimum on September 24, 2002 when it fell to 5,390.90 points due to a series of factors such as the dotcom bubble crisis (which in Spain did not have much impact precisely thanks to the incipient real estate bubble, although the price of companies like Terra collapsed), the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the "Corralito" in Argentina and a possible war in Iraq that ended up happening.[126]​[127]​ From there the IBEX 35 would begin a rise that would last until November 8, 2007 when it reached 15,945.70 points.[9]​.

2004

In April, the recently elected government launched a shock plan, although it fell short of the expectations it had generated (it had promised 800,000 subsidized homes and taxed empty homes: it did not fulfill either of those things). In September, new construction visas are reduced in Barcelona and Madrid. In October, Minister María Antonia Trujillo stops the publication of official data.

Given the deadlines between the beginning of an urban development process from the approval of the PGOU to the completion of the homes, those built in one year correspond to the urban development plans approved five years earlier. That is, in 2004 the homes were built and began to be processed in their corresponding PGOU in 1999.

2005

On June 10, the Bank of Spain warned in its 2004 report[128]​ that the price of housing in 2004 was overvalued by between 24% and 35%. Six days later the British publication "The Economist" estimates the overvaluation of housing in the Spanish market at around 50%[129]​.

In October 2005 there was a rebound in the evolution of the Euribor, making the price of mortgage payments more expensive for the first time in the last five years. That same month, Rodrigo Rato, Managing Director of the IMF and Minister of Economy of the Spanish government from 1996 to 2004, years in which there was spectacular growth in housing construction, warned once again about the situation of the Spanish real estate market[130]​ expressing, in a speech given on the occasion of the presentation of the Gold Medal of the Generalitat of Catalonia to La Caixa, his concern about the important repercussions for citizens and companies that a correction in the price of housing could have. housing in Spain.

In its economic newsletter of December 2005[131]​ the OECD includes Spain among the countries where housing prices are overvalued.

2006

In January, a study by the Autonomous University of Barcelona estimates the overvaluation of homes in Spain at around 20%.

In March, Brussels calls for caution in granting mortgages[132]​ In Spain, France and Ireland, debt has increased without reducing consumption, which puts families at risk due to variations in their income or changes in interest rates.

In April the Real Estate Show is held once again in the Community of Madrid. According to its estimates, 2005 is the year in which the greatest number of homes were approved and completed: more than 800,000, the largest number in the European Union, the culmination of the General Urban Planning Plans approved in 2000. That same month, La Caixa, in its Monthly Report No. 290[133]​ rules out that there is a bubble and predicts a "soft slowdown" in the real estate sector. Also in April, the International Monetary Fund warns again of the high price of housing in its report "Prospects for the world economy Globalization and inflation"[134] Simultaneously, the Euribor reaches the level of six years ago, standing at 3.22%. The forecasts indicated that in April 2007 it could be around 3.75% - 4%. The Bank of Spain warns of the use of flexible mortgages that allow the repayment of installments to vary depending on the terms.

In May, a demonstration called through the Internet takes place in the main Spanish cities demanding the right to decent housing[135]​.

In June the ECB raises interest rates by a quarter of a point, reaching 2.75%, and the Bank of Spain in its June 2006 Bulletin considers that the most plausible hypothesis is that of an overvaluation of housing compatible with a gradual absorption of the discrepancy found between the observed prices and their equilibrium level. The hypothesis of a bubble and that of a price in equilibrium are therefore rejected. The overvaluation is estimated at 29% at the end of 2004 (last data used in the study). In the same text, different studies are mentioned that examine the difference between the price of housing in Spain and an estimate of its long-term equilibrium level.[136]​.

In July, BBVA warned of the risk of sudden corrections in housing prices due to the delay in the real estate adjustment[137]​.

In August, the ECB announces a new increase in interest rates to 3.00%.

In September, the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) warned that an average mortgage could become more expensive by up to 1,300 euros per year in the following 24 months[138]​.

In October, the interest rate increases carried out by the FED caused the US real estate market to suffer an accelerated decline in the number of homes started and sold[139]​ That same month, the real estate portal idealista.com announced that, according to its data, used housing prices stagnated during the third quarter in large capitals[140]​ while the ECB once again raised interest rates by a quarter of a point, placing them at 3.25% and published in its monthly bulletin its intention to continue raising interest rates to control inflation[141]​ News about the increase in mortgage prices begins to appear in the press, as the interest rate is placed at 2002 levels[142]​ On October 19, the appraisal statistics of the Ministry of Housing are published[143]​, observing a slowdown in the interannual data and a clear drop in the data for the last quarter in 13 provinces, also smaller increases than the CPI in others. Some analysts call it a change in trend, and even a burst of the bubble. The real estate market seems to have entered the soft landing announced by the Ministry of Housing. The promotions take an average of three months longer to sell than last year and the price will not rise more than inflation in 2007.[144] After several warnings from the ECB, the savings banks have echoed the comments and have stressed that a sudden adjustment in the price of housing is possible. The main factor in this readjustment would be the high level of construction that leads to excess supply, and which continues to increase despite decreasing demand.[145]​ Blas Calzada"), former president of the National Securities Market Commission, assures that if it is not remedied there will be a double bubble: stock market and real estate.[146]​.

2007

In general, the year 2007 was marked by a gradual rise in the Euribor, a contraction in sales and housing construction, as well as a slowdown in price growth, all of this combined with an international financial crisis and a presumed deterioration of the Spanish economy.

In March, the ECB raises interest rates by a quarter of a point, reaching 3.75%.

In April, on Tuesday the 24th, a black day takes place for the entire real estate sector, which at times loses 20% in the session[151]​ The Ibex 35 falls 3%[152]​ dragged down by the prices of Astroc"), owned by Enrique Bañuelos, which sinks by 60% (3,000 million euros) due to an audit of its accounts. Other real estate companies suffer notable losses: Colonial, -13%, Inmocaral"), -11% and Fadesa, -10%. Construction companies also fell, leaving: Sacyr, ACS, Acciona and FCC down 6%. The 12-month Euribor rises to 4.48%.

On June 6, the ECB raises the official interest rate to 4%. The IBEX stock index drops 2.52% in a single day due to the breaks in the prices of real estate and construction companies[153]​ On the 13th it is known that Banco de Santander, among other entities and companies, sells practically all of its properties in Spain[154]​ On June 26, the UN asks the Spanish government to alert citizens of the incipient "serious real estate crisis" that, according to this organization, is looming[155]​ On the 27th, data is published in the national press revealing that 27.6% of the apartments for sale in Barcelona and 27% in Madrid (the two largest cities in the country) reduce the amount requested by an average of 5% in the last quarter[156]​.

At the beginning of August 2007 and in the context of an international mortgage crisis, central banks began to take measures to avoid the financial chaos generated by subprime mortgages in the United States. Starting on the 9th, the ECB, the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of Canada, among other entities, proceed to inject into the market, in various items, several hundred billion euros in different currencies to ensure the liquidity of the system, an unprecedented measure since the attacks of September 11. The measures adopted fail to avoid continued turbulence in the stock markets during the following weeks[157] Analysts identify the origin of the crisis, among other factors, with the North American real estate bubble, formed between 2001 and 2005.

Also in the month of August, the Bank of Spain confirms the slowdown in the increase in housing prices,[158]​ which at the end of 2006 is at the levels of 2000. On the other hand, there is a rebound in delinquencies: from 0.693 in May it goes to 0.706 in June, a level that is still considered low by financial entities,[159]​ but whose growth raises doubts about the health of the mortgage system. Spanish,[160]​ which according to some sources would have a percentage of risk credits of 3.5%.[161]​ In August, the decrease in apartments built was known[162]​ and expectations of sales and profits in the construction sector were reduced.[163]​ On the other hand, the continuous rise in the Euribor began to take its toll on the incomes of Spaniards, according to consumer associations.[164]​.

2008

At the beginning of 2008, the international financial crisis worsened significantly, with banking entities showing a worrying decline in profits, together with sharp declines in the stock market.[191]​ In this context, the construction industry begins to show obvious symptoms of crisis: a sharp stoppage in the number of sales, a drop in housing prices,[192]​ or an increase in unemployment in the sector (thus, for example, the closure of half of the real estate agencies is announced.) of Spain).[193]​ In February the Spanish economy showed obvious symptoms of economic crisis, with the largest increase in unemployment in the last 25 years and a sharp drop in hiring.[194]​.

In March, the main media assumed a serious and profound crisis in the construction sector, with the sector's employers predicting price drops of around 8%.[195]​ Specifically, there is talk of a "collapse" of the real estate market[196]​ in a context of national and international financial crisis.[197]​ In April, the interventions of the central banks continue to try to avoid a bankruptcy of the banking market. On the 21st of that month, the Central Bank of England[198] launched an issue of treasury bonds worth 62.5 billion euros to exchange "high-quality" mortgages, admitting that "the public sector will be forced to assume the losses in the event that any of the entities that have taken advantage of this plan are unable to meet their payments and the assets contributed cannot adequately cover the value of the bonds, although it noted that this is an "unlikely" possibility.

On May 15, the Don Piso real estate network, one of those that had become largest in the heat of the real estate boom, having 400 own or franchised offices, closed all its offices and laid off 100% of its staff after registering a 66% drop in sales.[199]​.

On May 22, the interbank interest rate (Euribor) reached 5%, which reveals the major liquidity problems of the lending entities and, therefore, the general financing difficulties, taking for granted on those dates that there has been a change of cycle in the Spanish construction sector that would imply the end of the bubble.

By the end of May, the interannual rate of real estate sales had plummeted, throughout Spain, by 40%.[200] Another important reference point, a sign of the change in the real estate cycle and the explosion of the bubble, is the surpassing of its historical maximum on June 6, 2008, in which it rose in a single session by more than four tenths in reaction to the words of the Governor of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet that he would raise the rates. interest rates above 4%,[201]​ which finally occurs on July 3.[202]​.

In September 2008, the US government took control of the two mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which guarantee 50% of US mortgages, valued at 12 trillion dollars,[203] to put them under the control of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which would imply that the Government would take control of both entities, at least temporarily.

2009

Home sales in Spain fell by 18% in 2009, to 462,747 operations, thus marking its third negative year and the second worst in the series, which began in 2005, according to data published today by the Spanish Ministry of Housing. During the fourth quarter, the first year-on-year increase in three years occurred, since none had been recorded since the fourth quarter of 2006.[205]​.

The price of free housing fell 5.5% in February 2010 compared to the same month of the previous year and has accumulated a decrease of 15.7% since December 2007, when it reached its maximum value, according to data offered today by the appraisal company Tinsa").[206]

In 2009, its first year of existence, Altamira sold 1,700 homes for a price, with discounts included, of 380 million euros.

Caixa Catalunya managed to sell 1,150 homes this year for 265 million and rent another 3,000 apartments, although the entry of new homes as a guarantee for defaults has kept its properties owned at 4,000.

Last year, Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones de Barcelona put 2,854 homes up for sale for which it earned 510 million euros, although it maintains 3,097 million in assets on its balance sheet.

According to data from the Spanish Ministry of Development, authorized visas for new construction "for residential use") in Spain reached 102,555 units between January and November 2009, 58.5% less than in the same period of the previous year (247,446).[207]​.

However, and contrary to forecasts, the fall in housing prices loses strength at the end of 2009: According to the Housing Price Index (IPV) "Housing Price Index (IPV)") prepared by the INE "National Institute of Statistics (Spain)"), housing closed 2009 with a decrease of 4.3%, which represents a brake on the downward trend that supported the outbreak of the real estate bubble in the last quarter of 2007. Since then housing has fallen by just 10.16%, a figure that is far from the forecasts that pointed to a 20% reduction in price to reactivate the market.[208]​.

In the last quarter of 2009, the construction of both free housing and subsidized housing increased in Spain. In this way, between October and December of last year, the number of protected homes started increased by 58.33% and the number of free homes started rose by 20.42%. However, the total number of homes whose construction began throughout 2009 was only 159,284, with protected housing representing almost half, 49.6%.[209]​.

For real estate developers, activity indicators have represented the lowest figure in the last half century. Thus, architects granted 110,862 visas for housing in 2009, 56% less than the previous year.[210]​.

2010

Of the outstanding balance of 325,000 million euros in existing loans to developers, more than half were granted between 2006 and 2008 when the crisis was already a reality. Specifically, more than 100,000 million were granted for the purchase of land.[211]​

In March 2010, the Bank of Spain, responding to the accusations of the Chambers of Commerce, the Anglo-Saxon press and rating agencies, estimated the real risk of the financial sector in relation to real estate assets at 445 billion euros.[212]​.

The doubtful loans granted to real estate companies have exceeded the psychological level of 10% at the end of 2009 for the first time since the start of the crisis at the end of 2007. 32,522 million euros are already in the bad debt portfolio. Banks and savings banks have closed 1,577 branches throughout the past year, bringing the total number of offices in Spain to 44,085.[213]​.

The Council of Ministers held in Seville on March 19, 2010 approved the draft Sustainable Economy Law with which it aims to change the pattern of Spanish economic growth over a ten-year horizon, directing it towards the potentially most productive and job-generating sectors and progressively decreasing the weight of the construction sector.[214]​.

The promoters have had to renegotiate with financial entities a debt that, together, reaches 323,306 million euros, according to the Bank of Spain. The swap of debt for assets have served to cancel debt and ongoing promotions, to alleviate tensions in its treasury and obtain liquidity, but not always to reduce or cancel loans. The 2008 refinancing failed because it was based on postponing debt repayment in exchange for establishing a sales plan. The collapse of the real estate market meant the bankruptcy of the model: "The companies were left with a large debt and no income, so it was decided to thin the structure of the real estate companies to give them air."

[215]​.

On the other hand, the credit is not enough to manage land, which would allow it to acquire value at a time when this market has not yet recovered. The little new construction today is built by the privileged group of developers who had land purchased before the boom. Another alternative is to work with banks, which have a portfolio of land and developments to finish.[216]​.

The report prepared each year by PricewaterhouseCoopers based on 600 interviews points out how more loans are granted, more home sales are closed and the investment market is recovering: "The market has made its adjustment in valuations, which can now be considered stabilized. We are going to see signs of improvement, but it will be a slow and long recovery process." The recovery in Spain will be even slower than in the rest of Europe, since the sector is hampered by a lack of financing.[217]​.

As a consequence of the real estate bubble in Spain, the integration of Caixa Catalunya, Manresa and Tarragona requires resources of 1,250 million euros, while the merger of Manlleu, Sabadell and Tarrasa requires 380 million euros, and that of Caja Duero and Caja España, 525 million euros. The resources anticipated by the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) require the subscription of preferred shares convertible into participatory quotas of the resulting entity.[218]​.

2011

The Minister of Public Works of Spain José Blanco López seeks to articulate new proposals so that the housing construction and sales sector can overcome the crisis it is going through. To propose a solution, he has summoned several groups involved:

With these meetings, Blanco seeks to fulfill the commitment made in December 2010 to establish this tripartite commission, with the ultimate goal of jointly seeking measures and alternatives to the current crisis:[226]​

The minister then also listed the set of "elementary principles" on which the measures adopted by said tripartite working group should revolve.

Thus, he indicated that the measures that are articulated "should not have an impact on the taxpayer" and, instead, "instruments that facilitate transparency and prevent the creation of new real estate bubbles" must be put in place.

Furthermore, he pointed out that any solution "must serve to further promote the restructuring process of the financial sector in order to better fulfill its essential competence, which is to provide credit to the productive sector and families."

In response to the Minister's request, the APCE Housing Commission met on January 11, 2011, where after analyzing several proposals it synthesized the proposals to be made, which are the following:

As a consequence of the economic crisis, the financial system has been blocked in Spain, undoubtedly linked to the problems of the real estate sector, so that the land acquired and financed today lacks the objective value that it once had. The value of land") has a fundamental component that is the urban qualification, granted by the administration, where two variables determine the price: Buildability"), or number of buildable m² and type of construction, where urban planning determines typology and density.

In mid-January 2011, Blanco encouraged people to buy an apartment since, as he said, this is "an optimal time" to do so. The minister seeks to reduce the unsold surplus. "The sooner we all free ourselves from excess housing, the better it will be for the economy, because it will have an impact on the fluidity of credit," he said.[227]​.

We lack reliable data, although the Spanish Ministry of Housing indicated for December 2009 a total of 688,044 new homes and around 620,000 used homes offered for sale, with an uneven geographical distribution.[228] Reservations per 100,000 inhabitants range from 5,706 in Castellón to 60 in Ceuta and Melilla. In Burgos there are 1,406, in Castilla y León 1,754.

61% of the surplus is located in 17 coastal provinces.

However, while these homes await their release on the rental or purchase market, up to 529,175 properties - equivalent to 77% of the reserves - were in the process of construction in 2009 and 42% of them were already sold off plan, compared to the 39% registered in 2008.

2012

On June 14, 2012, the INE made public the HPI (House Price Index) for the First Quarter of 2012, which reflects the largest drop in prices in all of democracy, a consequence of the stoppage in housing sales, a market that has registered in recent months the lowest number of transactions in the entire series. Free housing became cheaper on average by 12.6% in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period of the previous year, which represents its biggest decrease since the statistical office collected this data in 2007, when the real estate bubble burst (it is also the biggest drop according to the statistics of the Ministry of Development and those of the Appraisal Society), which is the one with the oldest data since it started in 1985). Second quarter of 2007, housing has become cheaper by 25.6%. And this despite the decision of the Government of Mariano Rajoy to recover the housing deduction in personal income tax (Personal Income Tax (Spain)) and the maintenance of the super-reduced VAT enjoyed by these transactions.[32]​.

The data for the First Quarter of 2012 accentuate the 11.2% decline that ended 2011. The fall in housing prices began in 2008, when apartments fell by 5.4% on average, and continued in 2009, with a fall of 4.3%, and in 2010, with a fall of 1.9%, according to the INE.[32]​.

In October 2012, the Spanish government agreed to create a bad bank with the aim of absorbing real estate and other types of assets from financial entities. The entity will be called Sareb and will have a cost of 90,000 million euros.[32]​.

2013

In 2013, the stagnation in the demand for home purchases continued, due to the high level of unemployment (more than 25%), the difficulty of financing and the end of the housing tax relief and the demographic decline due to low birth rates and emigration.[235]​ Evictions in Spain rose in 2013 in relation to the previous year.[236]​ According to notaries, the average price of housing fell by one 10.2% in the first eleven months of 2013.[237]​.

2014

According to the website kelisto.com and the Center of Economics and Business Research"), in 2014 the number of mortgage holders in Spain whose home is worth less than the outstanding loan will rise to 10.7% and, predictably, will reach 11.3% in 2015. Thus, some 580,000 homeowners could lose money if they wanted to sell their home or could suffer eviction if their economic situation worsened.[238]

2015

According to the Valuation Society report, in 2015 the price of new housing remained stable in Communities such as Aragón, Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla y León, Murcia and the Basque Country. However, in the rest of the Communities, except La Rioja, prices will experience increases of between 1 and 5%. The coastal areas of Andalusia and the Valencian Community, where the price fell abruptly, show a rebound in prices.

The possible existence of the real estate bubble and the debates carried out on the Internet around it and its social implications have brought about the creation of some neologisms, such as bubbler (a person who believed the existence of said bubble when everyone denied it), nuncabajista (one who makes real estate investments thinking that housing never goes down in price), pepito (a person whose only desire is to get a mortgage in order to become middle class), visillera (the feminine of pepito, for her desire to be the owner of a home where she can hang curtains) or cipoteca (mortgage with abusive conditions).

Another phrase that made a fortune was the title of a report on housing in Spain published in 2007 by Deutsche Bank and titled "living la vida loca" (lyrics to a well-known song),[239]​ in reference to the intense urbanization that had occurred until then. Also a source of ridicule was the creation, by the Ministry of Housing, of a portal called "Kelifinder" (a term composed of keli, which in youth slang means house, and finder, from the English to find, to find), which has not had the expected success.[240]​.

The novel Crematorio&action=edit&redlink=1 "Crematorio (book) (not yet written)") by Rafael Chirbes, set in the fictional Misent (transcript of Denia[241]​) has portrayed the real estate bubble in Spain.[241]​.

• - Social rent.

• - Urban corruption in Spain.

• - Dation in payment.

• - Euribor.

• - Movement for Decent Housing in Spain.

• - Land (urban planning) "Land (urban planning)").

• - Average house price.

Institutional pages

• - Ministry of housing.

• - Bank of Spain, housing market indicators, especially analysis of housing prices in Spain from the 70s and 80s to 2003.

• - Young Housing Observatory in Spain (Spanish Youth Council).

• - Statistics from the Ministry of Development on housing Archived November 4, 2013 at the Wayback Machine.

Reports from international organizations

• - Federal Reserve: housing in the world.

• - OECD: the international price of housing.

• - UN: Report on housing in Spain: preliminary document.

Other unofficial reports

• - Speculative Bubble Detection, J F Bellod.

Videos

• - The end of the bubble: 30-minute video about the real estate bubble, TV3, in Catalan with Spanish subtitles.

• - Interview with Jesús Encinar, CEO of Idealista.com about the state of housing in Spain (05/14/08).

• - Spain, from the real estate bubble to the Crisis (by Aleix Saló).

• - I already said it. Chronicle of a crisis foretold, Salvados, September 23, 2012, LaSexta.

En el caso de la burbuja en España, se dieron unas grandes diferencias entre el incremento medio del IPC y los sueldos (de un 3 %) y las subidas anuales de la vivienda. Entre 1997 y 2005, el precio de la vivienda subió un 130% más que el IPC.[39]​.

En agosto de 2007 estalló la burbuja inmobiliaria de los Estados Unidos, a raíz de la crisis de las hipotecas subprime o hipotecas basura. Poco después el Instituto Nacional de Estadística español anunció una fuerte bajada de la compraventa de viviendas (un 27% en el primer trimestre de 2008) y de la contratación de hipotecas (un 25% en enero de 2008), por lo que ahora se considera ese momento el de la explosión de la burbuja española.[40]​.

Las asociaciones de constructores, principales beneficiarios del alza de precios, solían negar la existencia de la burbuja, calificándola de «mito» interesado,[41]​ al igual que otros sectores directamente vinculados al negocio de la construcción,[42]​ para los cuales no existió una burbuja, sino un simple «boom inmobiliario». Por su parte, los sectores en desacuerdo con la coyuntura económica, más vinculados a los consumidores, principales afectados por el alza de precios y las dificultades de acceso a la vivienda, insistieron en valorar los mismos datos en sentido contrario,[43]​ lo mismo que otros colectivos orientados a la crítica social y el ecologismo.[44]​.

En este sentido es importante tener en cuenta que las propias expectativas sobre la evolución futura de un mercado influyen en el comportamiento real del mismo. Es decir, si muchos potenciales compradores estiman que está próxima una futura caída de los precios, pueden optar por esperar a que ésta ocurra para comprar. Eso provocaría que se redujera la demanda actual y, por lo tanto, que los precios realmente caigan. El mismo procedimiento tendría lugar a la inversa si lo que se espera es un incremento.[45]​.

Por otro lado, la opacidad que caracteriza el mercado de la vivienda en España impidió hacer valoraciones exactas de la situación: como más abajo se verá, una misma entidad enviaba mensajes de calma y alarma al mismo tiempo, las estadísticas nunca fueron sistemáticas y se caracterizaban por la dispersión, cuando no eran simplemente contradictorias, permaneciendo parte del negocio inmobiliario oculto al fisco, al moverse en parte con dinero negro o en forma de sobornos.[46]​ En ese sentido, algunos especialistas denunciaron incluso una campaña de opacidad y ocultamiento de los medios de comunicación que, basándose en intereses económicos, habrían evitado mencionar la verdadera naturaleza del auge del precio de la vivienda[47]​.

En todo caso, en los primeros meses del año 2008 la fuerte desaceleración del mercado de la vivienda en España ya permitía hablar a algunos economistas (como Alan Greenspan, exgobernador de la FED) de una burbuja especulativa y de su estallido,[48]​ En ese mismo sentido, en abril de 2008 los propios constructores y promotores reconocían que habían «subido mucho los precios y (...) expulsado a los consumidores del mercado», reconociendo implícitamente una sobrevaloración de los activos inmobiliarios.[49]​ dibujando un panorama sombrío para el sector y, por ende, para toda la estructura económica española. En el año 2009 ya nadie ponía en duda que una enorme burbuja inmobiliaria especulativa había estallado en todo el mundo, sintiéndose con especial virulencia en España, que se ha visto por ello inmersa en una profunda recesión económica.[50]​.

Según un cable de 2005 de la embajada estadounidense en Madrid, ya entonces podían advertir los síntomas de una sobrevaloración muy considerable, citando como causas de ella la inexistencia del contrapeso del mercado del alquiler debido a una legislación desfavorable -que era poco probable que cambiara debido a presiones internas en los principales partidos, según indicaba el mismo cable. También especuló con éxito sobre que, cuando la burbuja estallara y la situación financiera se recrudeciera, el gobierno que estuviera en el poder convocaría elecciones anticipadas.[51]​.

General assessments of the situation

Although the data on the real estate market were once accepted, as we will see, by the different actors, there was not always agreement on the valuation made of such data. The Bank of Spain itself rejected the idea that it was a speculative bubble:

However, the official reports of that entity also recognized an overvaluation of real estate assets, and already in 2002 it warned about a possible depreciation of housing.[53] García Montalvo published in 2003 one of the first articles on the formation of a real estate bubble in Spain.[54]​.

Those who denied the existence of a speculative bubble, and at most accepted a small overvaluation of assets, argued the good state of the Spanish economy,[55]​ the employment data and sustained growth, and the very low default rates, attributing the increase in prices to the pressure of demand.[56]​.

At the other end of the scale were the criticisms of those who considered that we were facing a real estate bubble with unpredictable consequences:.

In general, from critical positions it was stated that the dependence of the Spanish economy on the construction industry, as well as excessive indebtedness, could cause an economic recession in the long run, especially due to the rise in interest rates, which would erode domestic consumption and increase the unemployment rate and the "Delinquency (Default)" rates, ultimately causing a devaluation of real estate assets.[58]​.

Price and number of homes built

According to reports from the Bank of Spain[59]​ between 1976 and 2003, the price of housing in Spain has doubled in real terms, which means, in nominal terms, a multiplication by 16. This places Spain in third or fourth place in the OECD in housing price growth. According to the Bank of Spain, in the period 1997-2006 the price of housing in Spain had increased around 150% in nominal terms, which corresponds to 100% in real terms[52]​ The maximum price was reached at the end of the bubble, in 2007; At that time the decline in housing prices in Spain began. According to the INE "National Statistics Institute (Spain)"), in the first quarter of 2013 the price fell by 6.6% on average and in an interannual rate -compared to the first quarter of 2012-, by 14.3%.[60]​.

For the economist José García Montalvo, the price of housing in Spain still has to adjust by 35.4% in the coming years. Montalvo argues that in view of the PER data (ratio of purchase price and disposable income that must be over 4 years), which in the first quarter of 2013 was still at 6.2 years, prices should fall by 35.4% more to recover long-term PER levels (per 4). This decrease would have to be added to the one carried out since 2007 and would imply a total drop between the maximum peak of that year 2007 and the valley of 53.3%.[61]​[62]​[63]​.

Regarding the number of homes started, another report from the same entity indicates that between 1999 and 2001 more than half a million homes had been started per year,[64]​ and the number has not stopped increasing. Between the years 2000 and 2005, around 800,000 homes were projected per year, of which around 300,000 were built per year. Specifically, according to the visas issued by the College of Architects, during 2003, 700,000 homes were planned,[65]​ in 2004 around 500,000, and in 2005, 800,000. In 2006, more than 800,000 homes were approved.[66]​.

However, it must be remembered that not all the approved works end up being built. It is estimated that a period of two years may pass between the approval and the completion of the work. According to data published by the Ministry of Housing, only part of them were completed.[67] Specifically, 525,331 homes in 2003, 586,092 in 2004 and 612,066 in 2005.

At the same time, one must consider the fact that only part of the completed homes are sold, since in 2004 a total of 295,000 were sold and in 2005, some 336,000 new homes were sold,[68]​ which would indicate an accumulation of new homes. Significantly, the number of empty homes in Spain was 3.35 million in 2005, which represents 14% of the total.[69]​.

There was, therefore, relative agreement when quantifying both the prices and the number of homes built. That agreement was not transferred to its valuation.

Real estate debt

One of the main effects of this situation is the growth of household debt. Given that the purchase of housing, whether to live in or to invest, is usually carried out with mortgage loans, the increase in price implies an increase in debt. The debt of the Spanish tripled in less than ten years. In 1986 it represented 34% of disposable income, in 1997 it rose to 52% and in 2005 it reached 105%. In 2006, a quarter of the population was in debt for more than 15 years.[70]​ From 1990 to 2004, the average duration of mortgages increased from 12 to 25 years.[51]​ The Bank of Spain itself reported that family savings in 2006 have been overwhelmed by debt.[71]​.

In fact, the Bank of Spain has warned, year after year, about the high indebtedness of Spanish households,[72]​ which, according to the institution, is unsustainable. The debt of individuals reached 832,289 million euros at the end of 2006, with a growth of 18.53% year-on-year.[73]​.

The Bank of Spain also warned about the excessive indebtedness of the construction industry.[74]​.

The president of the Spanish Chambers of Commerce, Javier Gómez Navarro, stated in an event organized by the Association of Economic Information Journalists, that the entities "will never recover" 30% of the debt contracted with the real estate sector. According to the Bank of Spain, this debt amounts to 325,000 million euros and until December 2009 there were 96,824 million in doubtful loans.[75]​

The president of the Chambers regretted that the Spanish financial system did not admit from the beginning the impact of the crisis on its assets, and held the Bank of Spain jointly responsible for this: «In Spain they have never wanted to recognize that the financial system was affected, which would have forced the banks to capitalize. The policy until now has been to buy time, to make provisions, but time is running out."[76]​.

Desde diferentes instancias se trató de explicar el incremento de precios, de número de viviendas y el aumento del endeudamiento durante el periodo 1998-2007. Algunas de esas causas son internas, propias de la coyuntura económica y social española. Otras hay que relacionarlas con la situación económica mundial.

El Banco de España, en sucesivos informes,[77]​ así como otras instituciones de análisis, explican la situación a partir de los siguientes condicionantes:.

Macroeconomic factors (liquidity)

A real estate bubble cannot be explained without the massive contribution of liquidity, money for new mortgages. On the other hand, historically low interest rates for Spain due to its entry into the euro explain the system's ability to raise prices (people could pay more). These two factors are essential pieces in a real estate bubble.

The excess liquidity came from various factors:.

• - On the one hand, the ease with which banks gave mortgages and loans to companies and individuals. The poor management of the risk of non-payment and the laxity of the control authorities (Bank of Spain) facilitate this mechanism. This mechanism is similar to what happened in the United States with the 'subprime'.

• - The ability to obtain almost unlimited capital from banks, necessary to be able to offer new mortgages. The monetary policies of the large central banks facilitated this credit expansion (which is the same as liquidity).

Demographic factors

Several demographic factors explain the rise in demand "Demand (economy)") for housing in recent years. The foreign population in Spain went from 499,773 (294,726 Europeans and 205,047 non-Europeans) in 1995 to 1,159,060 (449,881 Europeans and 659,179 non-Europeans) in 2001.[79]​.

The immigrant population in Spain suffered spectacular growth between 1998 and 2006, going from 637,085 (1.60% of the population) to 4,482,568 (9.93% of the population), being the third highest immigration rate in the world. At the same time, the Spanish birth rate suffered a notable decline in the mid-1970s. The entire generation that was born at that time, according to the Bank of Spain, reached the age of emancipation throughout the nineties, thus increasing the demand for housing. Specifically, in 2002 the Bank of Spain calculated a pressure on demand of 600,000 young people per year.[80] Other demographic factors to take into account to explain the increase in housing demand are the growth in the number of divorces (with an increase of 79% annually in the period 1993-2003), tourist residential demand (1,500,000 people in 2003) and the demand generated by second homes. (3.6 million second homes in 2003, which represents 1 in every 11 Spaniards).[81] The Bank of Spain also points out that the number of members per household has decreased, as well as life expectancy has increased, increasing the number of households per inhabitant.

Some specialists, such as García-Montalvo, explain that factors such as demographics[82]​ have a clear influence but do not by themselves explain the rise in prices without many other factors.[83]​.

In 2012 the number of births fell for the fourth consecutive year, falling by 3.9%. The average age at motherhood increased to 31.6 years and the average number of children per woman fell to 1.32. During 2012, 405,615 people died in Spain, which was 4.6% more than the previous year. This is the largest annual increase of the decade.[84]​.

Economic and financial factors

The last decade of the century ended with a period of low indebtedness for the Spanish, at least in relation to the rest of the Europeans. Added to this is the spectacular lowering of interest rates and the Euribor to historically low levels (see graph) below inflation. On the other hand, in Spain there has been a tax system that favors the purchase of housing with reductions in the Personal Income Tax (Personal Income Tax (Spain)") (it is estimated that such tax benefits allow access to more expensive homes, between 15 and 22%,[85]​) while renting lacked aid during that period.

Other elements are the increase in per capita income and the maintenance of very high employment levels, combined with sustained economic growth, although salary increases have been more than moderate. The Bank of Spain explained it like this in 2002:

On the other hand, it is important to note that in the face of the revaluation of housing (more than 10% annually in the peak period), the profitability of stock markets and investment funds has been low. The Bank, for its part, taking advantage of the economic situation (especially the low interest rate and reduced delinquencies), provided all types of mortgage products, with increasingly longer terms (in 2007, 50-year mortgages began to be offered).

Also from a financial point of view, the existence of an "excess capital" is noted from various sources (institutions, private investment funds, public companies, limited companies, venture capital investors, hedge funds, private groups and individuals), in search of investment products.[86] Likewise, the influence of Spain's entry into the euro system is notable, which meant the emergence of black money in search of investment before January 1, 2002. Despite that the entry of the new currency should have meant the disappearance of a good part of that capital, five years later not only had it not disappeared but it had increased.[87]​[88]​ In fact, payment with black money would affect 60% of real estate transactions in Spain.[89]​ The lack of control over protected housing is also common, which does not belong to the free market for a stipulated period, but is sold without the authorities carrying out the corresponding inspections.[90]​.

The poor investments and forecasts of a third of the Spanish financial sector had to be rescued. The FROB acted as a rescue fund and in its December 2019 report, accounting for the aid from the FROB, Deposit Guarantee Fund (FGD) and Sareb, it indicates that rescue processes have been managed for entities in the banking system that represented 38.3% of the total deposits covered in the following entities with the amounts in millions of euros: Bankia (22,424), Caixa Catalunya (Catalunya Banc) (12,599), Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo (12,474), NovaCaixaGalicia (9,404), Banco de Valencia (6,103), Caja Castilla-La Mancha (4,215), Sareb (2,192), Unnim (1997), BMN (1,645), Banco CEISS (1,559), Cajasur (1,192), Banca Cívica (977), Caja3 (407), Banco Gallego (245) and Liberbank (124).[91]​.

Regulatory and structural factors

It is noted that successive regulations regarding land, rent and urban planning powers have contributed decisively to the development of the housing market. The percentage of land that developers must cede to city councils has been reduced, and all unprotected land has been declared developable land. On the other hand, there has been intervention in the rental market, eliminating indefinite contracts and deductions, all without establishing clear measures for the protection of the landlord (which enshrines an inadequate and long procedural system that hinders the rights of the owner and leaves him defenseless in the event of non-payment by the tenant).

Another important element has been the lack of financing of local entities (mainly city councils), which, together with their broad powers to organize the territory, has led to local estates being financed largely thanks to the construction market, to such an extent that calls have been made from the construction industry to reform the law on financing local entities.[92]​ The power of city councils to arbitrarily decide which land is developable and which land is not. It also gives rise to widespread urban corruption.[93] City councils make the supply of developable land artificially scarce, raising its price. Regarding the VPO programs (Officially Protected Housing or subsidized by public administrations for social purposes), their number and scope were significantly reduced in the 1996-2004 period.

Finally, it is generally accepted that construction costs do not explain the increase in prices, having hardly increased in the period: in fact, until 2003 construction costs had suffered an interannual decrease of 0.8% in real terms, in contrast to the sustained rise in housing prices.[94]​.

Social factors

According to some analyses, in Spain there is a social trend towards real estate ownership. The rate of owners compared to renters is 80-85%[95]​, the highest in Europe after Ireland (the European average is 61%). It is difficult to estimate whether this trend is a product of cultural factors or simply a consequence of the tax benefits that the purchase entails and the poor rental market, as well as its high price: rents rise in Spain by 4.1% annually (compared to a European average of 1.6%, which in the eurozone does not exceed 1.3%)[94][96]​.

External factors

From various sources it has been warned that the increase in the price of real estate is not exclusive to Spain. Quite the contrary, all industrialized countries have shown abnormal growth in prices since 1998. Those who claim that Spain is immersed in an economic bubble warn that this bubble is global. To do this, they rely, among other arguments, on various reports from the North American Federal Reserve (FED)[97]​ and the OECD[98]​ that reflect an increase in the price of real estate in practically all industrialized countries, with the exceptions of Germany, Japan[99]​ and Switzerland. In parallel with this growth, a credit bubble would also have developed, favored by the low interest rates that have been established in the main economies of the world.

The origin of this situation, according to certain analysts, would be, on the one hand, in the bursting of the.com bubble at the end of the 90s, which would have caused a massive flight of money in search of safe returns, and on the other, in the systematic lowering of interest rates after the attacks of September 11, 2001.

The speculation factor

Without there being express recognition by the economic authorities, various analysts have established that among the main reasons for the real estate bubble is the massive entry of small investors who, in the heat of sustained profits exceeding double digits annually, would have entered the buying and selling market, either as a simple investment (from buying off-plan to acquiring a finished work, and then selling at a higher price) or as a way to access a better quality home (through bridging mortgages). The low interest rates (unprecedented in Spain until the entry into the euro) and the low profitability of other investments, as well as the ease of obtaining credit, would have acted as an incentive for this situation, causing oversupply and depletion of demand in the midst of the expansionary phase of construction companies, which could not stop production in time, due to the long-term regime under which the sector works.

In addition, appraisal companies contributed to this speculative spiral by overvaluing a large number of properties.[100]​ As a result of the economic crisis, major deficiencies have been revealed in some of these companies, the only ones authorized to carry out appraisals for mortgage loan applications, because their technicians, generally self-employed who charge a small percentage of the fees for each appraisal carried out for said companies, often with little experience and with very little advice from them, can be manipulated. by the appraisal companies, which in turn, when they are not linked to the banks, are highly dependent on the financial entities, which are the ones that provide them with most of their work, and which may be interested in an upward valuation of the properties to increase the amount of the loans granted and, consequently, the interest benefits.

With the publication of the parliamentarians' assets in September 2011, it came to light that practically all of them have invested in housing,[101]​ with some even having more than 20 real estate properties,[102]​ which partly explains the lack of regulation of real estate speculation in this sense.[103]​.

Si bien la Constitución española garantiza en su artículo 47 el acceso a una vivienda digna y ordena a los poderes públicos evitar la especulación del suelo, y a pesar de la relajación en las condiciones para la adquisición de préstamos hipotecarios y del aumento de unidades residenciales puestas a la venta, los precios elevados han impedido durante el período 2008-2013 el acceso a la vivienda a una parte importante de la población incluso en régimen de alquiler, especialmente la que por su edad no pudo adquirirla antes del comienzo del ciclo alcista.

El informe anual sobre los jóvenes en España del año 2006[104]​ establece que el 51% de los españoles de entre 18 y 34 años vive en el domicilio familiar, y el 47% en su propia casa (alquilada, comprada o compartida). Según el mismo organismo, en el año 2003 el precio medio de la vivienda para el tramo de edad comprendida entre los 18 y 24 años supera en un 210% el precio máximo tolerable, y para las mujeres un 10% más, debido a la diferencia salarial media[105]​.

Otro fenómeno que ha aparecido durante este periodo es el mobbing inmobiliario,[106]​ en especial contra inquilinos de renta antigua, a quienes los caseros hostigan para que abandonen el inmueble con objeto de obtener plusvalías con él.

Pese a todo, el parque de viviendas vacías en España era en 2005 de 3,35 millones, lo que supone un 14% del total, la tasa más alta del mundo[69]​.

Por otro lado, la enorme superficie urbanizada entre los años 1987 y 2006 significó el aumento en más de 1 millón de hectáreas de la superficie artificial (con una tasa entre los años 2000 y 2006 doble que en los años anteriores). En el Informe de 2010 del Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad en España se estimaba que la urbanización era la mayor amenaza para la biodiversidad en el país.[107]​[108]​.

Measures proposed by the authorities

The Ministry of Housing, as soon as the socialist government came to power in 2004, rejected the idea of ​​carrying out its electoral promises of creating 800,000 homes (including in this figure the rentals that could be produced during its term).

The government launched the idea of ​​creating "mini-apartments" under the euphemism of "housing solutions", which was widely criticized by the opposition Popular Party.

The Central Government also did not increase taxes on uninhabited homes or second homes that they had promised, and which was considered necessary in studies by several universities.[109] Other administrations that had made similar promises, such as the Madrid City Council in 2004, also failed to fulfill them.

The idea of ​​putting empty homes on the market through tax pressure has been abandoned and instead it is intended to put them out as rental homes, modifying the legislation to do so. According to some analysts, this can cause investors to buy homes to later rent them, making access to home ownership even more difficult; From other sectors it is indicated that even if these investors became enriched, the consequence would be a drop in rental housing prices, so the social benefit would be higher.

The so-called “Shock Plan” of the socialist government that won the elections in 2004 is limited to increasing the number of protected homes by 79,000. Those responsible for the Ministry of Housing themselves recognize that this will not solve the difficult access of citizens to housing. On the other hand, the uselessness or effectiveness of a greater creation of officially protected housing (VPO) to reduce housing prices is in doubt, since fraud and irregularities have been detected in its planning, construction, allocation and sale mechanisms.

In communities where there is no effective regulation of protected housing, VPO is being sold and bought at market prices, representing an important source of black money laundering, making it ineffective as social aid. In other places the VPO mechanism has proven to be an adequate solution that, in view of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, can benefit municipalities, builders and consumers.

There are communities in which a very particular interpretation has been given regarding the political solutions to be applied in the face of the lack of Protected Housing. Thus, it is worth highlighting, to cite just one example, the paradox that in the Community of Madrid, governed by Esperanza Aguirre of the Popular Party since 2001, the maximum price modules that serve as a reference for developers to sell different types of subsidized housing have experienced a continuous and significant increase in line with the evolution of housing prices in the free market. The last increase of these carried out by the Community of Madrid to, in the words of the current Minister of Housing María Isabel Mariño, encourage real estate developers to build more protected housing "in the face of the slowdown that the sector is experiencing" was carried out on April 4, 2008, increasing the price of said modules by 31% for protected housing located in the areas of Madrid capital, Alcobendas, Las Rozas, Majadahonda and Pozuelo (zone A), 25% more in municipalities such as Alcalá de Henares, Alcorcón or Parla (zone B) and 20% more in towns such as Cercedilla (zone C).[110]​.

Positions of the different political parties

On September 27, 2005, following a bill by the Parliamentary Group of Izquierda Unida (Spain) "Izquierda Unida (Spain)") IU-ICV on reforms in tax matters on unoccupied homes represented progress in the necessary change in legislation on the matter, although the proposal was rejected by an overwhelming majority, mainly because there were discrepancies around the controversial definition of what could be considered a home. uninhabited.

In January 2007, the Ministry of Economy and Finance was studying the development of the regulations of the Local Treasury Regulatory Law to apply a surcharge of up to 50% on the Real Estate Tax (IBI) on homes that are unoccupied.[111]​.

At that time, the Basque and Catalan governments were considering the possibility of taxing empty homes with a fee. In the case of Euskadi, the proposal was later rejected in the Basque Parliament[112].

During the electoral debate held on November 7, 2011 between the candidates of the PSOE and the PP for the presidency of the Government of Spain, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Mariano Rajoy, they spoke in passing about the real estate sector to blame themselves for the responsibility of the real estate bubble. For Rubalcaba, banks do not lend because they owe a lot and they owe because of the real estate bubble created by the PP. From his point of view, it was the popular governments who fueled speculation with the land liberalization law of 1998.[113]​

However, Rajoy replies, the years in which the most housing was started were 2006, 2005 and 2004, under José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, ensuring that the PSOE "did nothing against speculation and has limited itself to blaming others."[113]​

The socialist candidate criticized the fact that Rajoy wants to rescue the tax relief for the purchase of a habitual residence") or extend the super-reduced VAT to 4%, as well as lower the property transfer tax "Tax on Onerous Asset Transfers (Spain)").

Possible solutions

The Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) (as of August 2010) defends the continuity of the real estate sector and sees no justification for it to stop because there are reserves of one million unsold homes.[114]​

The association believes that "reserves of a certain importance" must be made compatible with the 300,000 homes that are needed every year, so that those that are launched are built in the places where the demand is, in many cases, different from where the current supply is. Its president, Santos González, explained that it cannot be thought that all the necessary properties have already been built for the simple fact that there are close to a million unsold homes.[115]​.

• - The fiscal boost to rehabilitation in most cases will be directed to those who already have a house and not to those who need to acquire one. The Popular Party has expressed its support for lowering VAT for housing repairs.[116]​.

• - The elimination of the housing deduction in 2011 may advance some purchase decisions to continue taking advantage of that tax advantage.

• - The increase of two points in the general VAT as of July 1, 2010 (from 16% to 18%) and of three more points as of September 1, 2012 (from 18% to 21%) (see Value Added Tax (Spain) "Value Added Tax (Spain)") may have no effect given the artificially created expectations that prices will continue to fall: If you continue to think that housing is going to go down by 30%, even if the VAT increases by 2 points (from 16% to 18%), you will believe that you will continue to save 28.79%; 65.71%)[119]​ so that you would not believe that it is profitable for you to wait.

1979-1985

The price of housing began a sustained decline between the years 1979 and 1982, which in real terms (discounting inflation) represented a drop of 35% in just 5 years.[120] After a recovery in 1983 where there was a positive rebound of 6%, the price of housing fell again in 1985 to the levels of 1982. This entire process occurred in a context of economic deterioration after the oil crisis. of 1973 that fully affected Spain, unemployment whose figures rose from 4.7% in 1976 to 21.1% in 1985, as well as the high inflation rate derived from the oil crisis of 1979, where the price of oil multiplied by 2.7 from mid-1978 to 1981.

1985-1992

The year 1985 was especially tough for construction, but, parallel to the increase in economic activity in 1986, there was also a notable acceleration in construction. Cement consumption increased by 10.2% compared to the previous year, new housing construction increased by 10%, and construction expenses grew by 5%. The construction boom was even stronger in 1987, when the industry recorded a 10% increase, the highest growth rate of all Spanish industries. In that same year, the construction sector represented 7% of the country's GDP. Strong industrial expansion continued until 1988, and much of the new construction was concentrated in urban offices, housing, and tourism-related services.

The employment rate had increased in all sectors except the primary, but construction recorded the largest relative increase, 11.2%, as a result of the 88,100 new jobs it created in 1986. For comparison, only 7,300 new jobs were created in construction in 1985, and by 1984 110,400 jobs had been destroyed. At the end of the 1980s, construction jobs made up a third of all Spanish industrial employment. However, at that same time, the sector was still operating at a level considerably below its capacity despite the boom, as its unemployment rate was around 30%.[121]​.

1992-1996

The last upward cycle in housing prices ended, according to the Valuation Society), with an uninterrupted decline in housing prices for six years, from 1990 to 1996.

There was a drop in prices of 1.7% in nominal terms between 1990 and 1993, which means 15% in real terms (taking into account the inflation marked by the CPI). In December 1990, the real price of housing per square meter was €684.00, that is, €933.00 in nominal terms based on the accumulated CPI of 1985 (136.50%). In December 1993 the price in real terms was €576.00 per square meter, that is, €917.00 nominal based on the CPI accumulated since 1985 (159.20%). This represents a real variation of -15.7% (and a nominal variation of -1.71%).

In December 1996, the real price of housing per square meter was €560.00 (€1002.00 nominal, based on the accumulated CPI of 1985, 178.90%). The real variation represented -18.1% (7.39% nominal). According to data from the Sociedad de Tasación, S.A., between the months of December 1990 and 1996 the price of housing rose nominally by 7.39%, but in an inflationary context of 31.06%.

This was the last bearish housing cycle in Spain, with the fall in prices lasting six consecutive years[122].

1996-2003

The price of housing in Madrid between 1996 and 2003 suffered an increase of 176% according to what ABC published on February 11, 2003[123]​.

In October 2003, one of the first warnings was issued that would confirm the existence of a speculative bubble: it was issued by the European Commission, which warned of a doubling of the nominal price in a single year, and noted that "the danger that a significant increase in interest rates or a future deterioration in the labor market could at some point induce a correction in the size of the real estate markets of some Member States."[124] In November, the European Central Bank warns of a downward correction in housing prices.

This year, voices from the academic world were already warning of the real estate bubble, the pressures that were inflating it in a dangerous way, and the need to control it.[125]​.

In the most important stock market in Spain, the Madrid Stock Exchange, the IBEX 35 hit a minimum on September 24, 2002 when it fell to 5,390.90 points due to a series of factors such as the dotcom bubble crisis (which in Spain did not have much impact precisely thanks to the incipient real estate bubble, although the price of companies like Terra collapsed), the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the "Corralito" in Argentina and a possible war in Iraq that ended up happening.[126]​[127]​ From there the IBEX 35 would begin a rise that would last until November 8, 2007 when it reached 15,945.70 points.[9]​.

2004

In April, the recently elected government launched a shock plan, although it fell short of the expectations it had generated (it had promised 800,000 subsidized homes and taxed empty homes: it did not fulfill either of those things). In September, new construction visas are reduced in Barcelona and Madrid. In October, Minister María Antonia Trujillo stops the publication of official data.

Given the deadlines between the beginning of an urban development process from the approval of the PGOU to the completion of the homes, those built in one year correspond to the urban development plans approved five years earlier. That is, in 2004 the homes were built and began to be processed in their corresponding PGOU in 1999.

2005

On June 10, the Bank of Spain warned in its 2004 report[128]​ that the price of housing in 2004 was overvalued by between 24% and 35%. Six days later the British publication "The Economist" estimates the overvaluation of housing in the Spanish market at around 50%[129]​.

In October 2005 there was a rebound in the evolution of the Euribor, making the price of mortgage payments more expensive for the first time in the last five years. That same month, Rodrigo Rato, Managing Director of the IMF and Minister of Economy of the Spanish government from 1996 to 2004, years in which there was spectacular growth in housing construction, warned once again about the situation of the Spanish real estate market[130]​ expressing, in a speech given on the occasion of the presentation of the Gold Medal of the Generalitat of Catalonia to La Caixa, his concern about the important repercussions for citizens and companies that a correction in the price of housing could have. housing in Spain.

In its economic newsletter of December 2005[131]​ the OECD includes Spain among the countries where housing prices are overvalued.

2006

In January, a study by the Autonomous University of Barcelona estimates the overvaluation of homes in Spain at around 20%.

In March, Brussels calls for caution in granting mortgages[132]​ In Spain, France and Ireland, debt has increased without reducing consumption, which puts families at risk due to variations in their income or changes in interest rates.

In April the Real Estate Show is held once again in the Community of Madrid. According to its estimates, 2005 is the year in which the greatest number of homes were approved and completed: more than 800,000, the largest number in the European Union, the culmination of the General Urban Planning Plans approved in 2000. That same month, La Caixa, in its Monthly Report No. 290[133]​ rules out that there is a bubble and predicts a "soft slowdown" in the real estate sector. Also in April, the International Monetary Fund warns again of the high price of housing in its report "Prospects for the world economy Globalization and inflation"[134] Simultaneously, the Euribor reaches the level of six years ago, standing at 3.22%. The forecasts indicated that in April 2007 it could be around 3.75% - 4%. The Bank of Spain warns of the use of flexible mortgages that allow the repayment of installments to vary depending on the terms.

In May, a demonstration called through the Internet takes place in the main Spanish cities demanding the right to decent housing[135]​.

In June the ECB raises interest rates by a quarter of a point, reaching 2.75%, and the Bank of Spain in its June 2006 Bulletin considers that the most plausible hypothesis is that of an overvaluation of housing compatible with a gradual absorption of the discrepancy found between the observed prices and their equilibrium level. The hypothesis of a bubble and that of a price in equilibrium are therefore rejected. The overvaluation is estimated at 29% at the end of 2004 (last data used in the study). In the same text, different studies are mentioned that examine the difference between the price of housing in Spain and an estimate of its long-term equilibrium level.[136]​.

In July, BBVA warned of the risk of sudden corrections in housing prices due to the delay in the real estate adjustment[137]​.

In August, the ECB announces a new increase in interest rates to 3.00%.

In September, the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) warned that an average mortgage could become more expensive by up to 1,300 euros per year in the following 24 months[138]​.

In October, the interest rate increases carried out by the FED caused the US real estate market to suffer an accelerated decline in the number of homes started and sold[139]​ That same month, the real estate portal idealista.com announced that, according to its data, used housing prices stagnated during the third quarter in large capitals[140]​ while the ECB once again raised interest rates by a quarter of a point, placing them at 3.25% and published in its monthly bulletin its intention to continue raising interest rates to control inflation[141]​ News about the increase in mortgage prices begins to appear in the press, as the interest rate is placed at 2002 levels[142]​ On October 19, the appraisal statistics of the Ministry of Housing are published[143]​, observing a slowdown in the interannual data and a clear drop in the data for the last quarter in 13 provinces, also smaller increases than the CPI in others. Some analysts call it a change in trend, and even a burst of the bubble. The real estate market seems to have entered the soft landing announced by the Ministry of Housing. The promotions take an average of three months longer to sell than last year and the price will not rise more than inflation in 2007.[144] After several warnings from the ECB, the savings banks have echoed the comments and have stressed that a sudden adjustment in the price of housing is possible. The main factor in this readjustment would be the high level of construction that leads to excess supply, and which continues to increase despite decreasing demand.[145]​ Blas Calzada"), former president of the National Securities Market Commission, assures that if it is not remedied there will be a double bubble: stock market and real estate.[146]​.

2007

In general, the year 2007 was marked by a gradual rise in the Euribor, a contraction in sales and housing construction, as well as a slowdown in price growth, all of this combined with an international financial crisis and a presumed deterioration of the Spanish economy.

In March, the ECB raises interest rates by a quarter of a point, reaching 3.75%.

In April, on Tuesday the 24th, a black day takes place for the entire real estate sector, which at times loses 20% in the session[151]​ The Ibex 35 falls 3%[152]​ dragged down by the prices of Astroc"), owned by Enrique Bañuelos, which sinks by 60% (3,000 million euros) due to an audit of its accounts. Other real estate companies suffer notable losses: Colonial, -13%, Inmocaral"), -11% and Fadesa, -10%. Construction companies also fell, leaving: Sacyr, ACS, Acciona and FCC down 6%. The 12-month Euribor rises to 4.48%.

On June 6, the ECB raises the official interest rate to 4%. The IBEX stock index drops 2.52% in a single day due to the breaks in the prices of real estate and construction companies[153]​ On the 13th it is known that Banco de Santander, among other entities and companies, sells practically all of its properties in Spain[154]​ On June 26, the UN asks the Spanish government to alert citizens of the incipient "serious real estate crisis" that, according to this organization, is looming[155]​ On the 27th, data is published in the national press revealing that 27.6% of the apartments for sale in Barcelona and 27% in Madrid (the two largest cities in the country) reduce the amount requested by an average of 5% in the last quarter[156]​.

At the beginning of August 2007 and in the context of an international mortgage crisis, central banks began to take measures to avoid the financial chaos generated by subprime mortgages in the United States. Starting on the 9th, the ECB, the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of Canada, among other entities, proceed to inject into the market, in various items, several hundred billion euros in different currencies to ensure the liquidity of the system, an unprecedented measure since the attacks of September 11. The measures adopted fail to avoid continued turbulence in the stock markets during the following weeks[157] Analysts identify the origin of the crisis, among other factors, with the North American real estate bubble, formed between 2001 and 2005.

Also in the month of August, the Bank of Spain confirms the slowdown in the increase in housing prices,[158]​ which at the end of 2006 is at the levels of 2000. On the other hand, there is a rebound in delinquencies: from 0.693 in May it goes to 0.706 in June, a level that is still considered low by financial entities,[159]​ but whose growth raises doubts about the health of the mortgage system. Spanish,[160]​ which according to some sources would have a percentage of risk credits of 3.5%.[161]​ In August, the decrease in apartments built was known[162]​ and expectations of sales and profits in the construction sector were reduced.[163]​ On the other hand, the continuous rise in the Euribor began to take its toll on the incomes of Spaniards, according to consumer associations.[164]​.

2008

At the beginning of 2008, the international financial crisis worsened significantly, with banking entities showing a worrying decline in profits, together with sharp declines in the stock market.[191]​ In this context, the construction industry begins to show obvious symptoms of crisis: a sharp stoppage in the number of sales, a drop in housing prices,[192]​ or an increase in unemployment in the sector (thus, for example, the closure of half of the real estate agencies is announced.) of Spain).[193]​ In February the Spanish economy showed obvious symptoms of economic crisis, with the largest increase in unemployment in the last 25 years and a sharp drop in hiring.[194]​.

In March, the main media assumed a serious and profound crisis in the construction sector, with the sector's employers predicting price drops of around 8%.[195]​ Specifically, there is talk of a "collapse" of the real estate market[196]​ in a context of national and international financial crisis.[197]​ In April, the interventions of the central banks continue to try to avoid a bankruptcy of the banking market. On the 21st of that month, the Central Bank of England[198] launched an issue of treasury bonds worth 62.5 billion euros to exchange "high-quality" mortgages, admitting that "the public sector will be forced to assume the losses in the event that any of the entities that have taken advantage of this plan are unable to meet their payments and the assets contributed cannot adequately cover the value of the bonds, although it noted that this is an "unlikely" possibility.

On May 15, the Don Piso real estate network, one of those that had become largest in the heat of the real estate boom, having 400 own or franchised offices, closed all its offices and laid off 100% of its staff after registering a 66% drop in sales.[199]​.

On May 22, the interbank interest rate (Euribor) reached 5%, which reveals the major liquidity problems of the lending entities and, therefore, the general financing difficulties, taking for granted on those dates that there has been a change of cycle in the Spanish construction sector that would imply the end of the bubble.

By the end of May, the interannual rate of real estate sales had plummeted, throughout Spain, by 40%.[200] Another important reference point, a sign of the change in the real estate cycle and the explosion of the bubble, is the surpassing of its historical maximum on June 6, 2008, in which it rose in a single session by more than four tenths in reaction to the words of the Governor of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet that he would raise the rates. interest rates above 4%,[201]​ which finally occurs on July 3.[202]​.

In September 2008, the US government took control of the two mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which guarantee 50% of US mortgages, valued at 12 trillion dollars,[203] to put them under the control of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which would imply that the Government would take control of both entities, at least temporarily.

2009

Home sales in Spain fell by 18% in 2009, to 462,747 operations, thus marking its third negative year and the second worst in the series, which began in 2005, according to data published today by the Spanish Ministry of Housing. During the fourth quarter, the first year-on-year increase in three years occurred, since none had been recorded since the fourth quarter of 2006.[205]​.

The price of free housing fell 5.5% in February 2010 compared to the same month of the previous year and has accumulated a decrease of 15.7% since December 2007, when it reached its maximum value, according to data offered today by the appraisal company Tinsa").[206]

In 2009, its first year of existence, Altamira sold 1,700 homes for a price, with discounts included, of 380 million euros.

Caixa Catalunya managed to sell 1,150 homes this year for 265 million and rent another 3,000 apartments, although the entry of new homes as a guarantee for defaults has kept its properties owned at 4,000.

Last year, Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones de Barcelona put 2,854 homes up for sale for which it earned 510 million euros, although it maintains 3,097 million in assets on its balance sheet.

According to data from the Spanish Ministry of Development, authorized visas for new construction "for residential use") in Spain reached 102,555 units between January and November 2009, 58.5% less than in the same period of the previous year (247,446).[207]​.

However, and contrary to forecasts, the fall in housing prices loses strength at the end of 2009: According to the Housing Price Index (IPV) "Housing Price Index (IPV)") prepared by the INE "National Institute of Statistics (Spain)"), housing closed 2009 with a decrease of 4.3%, which represents a brake on the downward trend that supported the outbreak of the real estate bubble in the last quarter of 2007. Since then housing has fallen by just 10.16%, a figure that is far from the forecasts that pointed to a 20% reduction in price to reactivate the market.[208]​.

In the last quarter of 2009, the construction of both free housing and subsidized housing increased in Spain. In this way, between October and December of last year, the number of protected homes started increased by 58.33% and the number of free homes started rose by 20.42%. However, the total number of homes whose construction began throughout 2009 was only 159,284, with protected housing representing almost half, 49.6%.[209]​.

For real estate developers, activity indicators have represented the lowest figure in the last half century. Thus, architects granted 110,862 visas for housing in 2009, 56% less than the previous year.[210]​.

2010

Of the outstanding balance of 325,000 million euros in existing loans to developers, more than half were granted between 2006 and 2008 when the crisis was already a reality. Specifically, more than 100,000 million were granted for the purchase of land.[211]​

In March 2010, the Bank of Spain, responding to the accusations of the Chambers of Commerce, the Anglo-Saxon press and rating agencies, estimated the real risk of the financial sector in relation to real estate assets at 445 billion euros.[212]​.

The doubtful loans granted to real estate companies have exceeded the psychological level of 10% at the end of 2009 for the first time since the start of the crisis at the end of 2007. 32,522 million euros are already in the bad debt portfolio. Banks and savings banks have closed 1,577 branches throughout the past year, bringing the total number of offices in Spain to 44,085.[213]​.

The Council of Ministers held in Seville on March 19, 2010 approved the draft Sustainable Economy Law with which it aims to change the pattern of Spanish economic growth over a ten-year horizon, directing it towards the potentially most productive and job-generating sectors and progressively decreasing the weight of the construction sector.[214]​.

The promoters have had to renegotiate with financial entities a debt that, together, reaches 323,306 million euros, according to the Bank of Spain. The swap of debt for assets have served to cancel debt and ongoing promotions, to alleviate tensions in its treasury and obtain liquidity, but not always to reduce or cancel loans. The 2008 refinancing failed because it was based on postponing debt repayment in exchange for establishing a sales plan. The collapse of the real estate market meant the bankruptcy of the model: "The companies were left with a large debt and no income, so it was decided to thin the structure of the real estate companies to give them air."

[215]​.

On the other hand, the credit is not enough to manage land, which would allow it to acquire value at a time when this market has not yet recovered. The little new construction today is built by the privileged group of developers who had land purchased before the boom. Another alternative is to work with banks, which have a portfolio of land and developments to finish.[216]​.

The report prepared each year by PricewaterhouseCoopers based on 600 interviews points out how more loans are granted, more home sales are closed and the investment market is recovering: "The market has made its adjustment in valuations, which can now be considered stabilized. We are going to see signs of improvement, but it will be a slow and long recovery process." The recovery in Spain will be even slower than in the rest of Europe, since the sector is hampered by a lack of financing.[217]​.

As a consequence of the real estate bubble in Spain, the integration of Caixa Catalunya, Manresa and Tarragona requires resources of 1,250 million euros, while the merger of Manlleu, Sabadell and Tarrasa requires 380 million euros, and that of Caja Duero and Caja España, 525 million euros. The resources anticipated by the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) require the subscription of preferred shares convertible into participatory quotas of the resulting entity.[218]​.

2011

The Minister of Public Works of Spain José Blanco López seeks to articulate new proposals so that the housing construction and sales sector can overcome the crisis it is going through. To propose a solution, he has summoned several groups involved:

With these meetings, Blanco seeks to fulfill the commitment made in December 2010 to establish this tripartite commission, with the ultimate goal of jointly seeking measures and alternatives to the current crisis:[226]​

The minister then also listed the set of "elementary principles" on which the measures adopted by said tripartite working group should revolve.

Thus, he indicated that the measures that are articulated "should not have an impact on the taxpayer" and, instead, "instruments that facilitate transparency and prevent the creation of new real estate bubbles" must be put in place.

Furthermore, he pointed out that any solution "must serve to further promote the restructuring process of the financial sector in order to better fulfill its essential competence, which is to provide credit to the productive sector and families."

In response to the Minister's request, the APCE Housing Commission met on January 11, 2011, where after analyzing several proposals it synthesized the proposals to be made, which are the following:

As a consequence of the economic crisis, the financial system has been blocked in Spain, undoubtedly linked to the problems of the real estate sector, so that the land acquired and financed today lacks the objective value that it once had. The value of land") has a fundamental component that is the urban qualification, granted by the administration, where two variables determine the price: Buildability"), or number of buildable m² and type of construction, where urban planning determines typology and density.

In mid-January 2011, Blanco encouraged people to buy an apartment since, as he said, this is "an optimal time" to do so. The minister seeks to reduce the unsold surplus. "The sooner we all free ourselves from excess housing, the better it will be for the economy, because it will have an impact on the fluidity of credit," he said.[227]​.

We lack reliable data, although the Spanish Ministry of Housing indicated for December 2009 a total of 688,044 new homes and around 620,000 used homes offered for sale, with an uneven geographical distribution.[228] Reservations per 100,000 inhabitants range from 5,706 in Castellón to 60 in Ceuta and Melilla. In Burgos there are 1,406, in Castilla y León 1,754.

61% of the surplus is located in 17 coastal provinces.

However, while these homes await their release on the rental or purchase market, up to 529,175 properties - equivalent to 77% of the reserves - were in the process of construction in 2009 and 42% of them were already sold off plan, compared to the 39% registered in 2008.

2012

On June 14, 2012, the INE made public the HPI (House Price Index) for the First Quarter of 2012, which reflects the largest drop in prices in all of democracy, a consequence of the stoppage in housing sales, a market that has registered in recent months the lowest number of transactions in the entire series. Free housing became cheaper on average by 12.6% in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period of the previous year, which represents its biggest decrease since the statistical office collected this data in 2007, when the real estate bubble burst (it is also the biggest drop according to the statistics of the Ministry of Development and those of the Appraisal Society), which is the one with the oldest data since it started in 1985). Second quarter of 2007, housing has become cheaper by 25.6%. And this despite the decision of the Government of Mariano Rajoy to recover the housing deduction in personal income tax (Personal Income Tax (Spain)) and the maintenance of the super-reduced VAT enjoyed by these transactions.[32]​.

The data for the First Quarter of 2012 accentuate the 11.2% decline that ended 2011. The fall in housing prices began in 2008, when apartments fell by 5.4% on average, and continued in 2009, with a fall of 4.3%, and in 2010, with a fall of 1.9%, according to the INE.[32]​.

In October 2012, the Spanish government agreed to create a bad bank with the aim of absorbing real estate and other types of assets from financial entities. The entity will be called Sareb and will have a cost of 90,000 million euros.[32]​.

2013

In 2013, the stagnation in the demand for home purchases continued, due to the high level of unemployment (more than 25%), the difficulty of financing and the end of the housing tax relief and the demographic decline due to low birth rates and emigration.[235]​ Evictions in Spain rose in 2013 in relation to the previous year.[236]​ According to notaries, the average price of housing fell by one 10.2% in the first eleven months of 2013.[237]​.

2014

According to the website kelisto.com and the Center of Economics and Business Research"), in 2014 the number of mortgage holders in Spain whose home is worth less than the outstanding loan will rise to 10.7% and, predictably, will reach 11.3% in 2015. Thus, some 580,000 homeowners could lose money if they wanted to sell their home or could suffer eviction if their economic situation worsened.[238]

2015

According to the Valuation Society report, in 2015 the price of new housing remained stable in Communities such as Aragón, Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla y León, Murcia and the Basque Country. However, in the rest of the Communities, except La Rioja, prices will experience increases of between 1 and 5%. The coastal areas of Andalusia and the Valencian Community, where the price fell abruptly, show a rebound in prices.

The possible existence of the real estate bubble and the debates carried out on the Internet around it and its social implications have brought about the creation of some neologisms, such as bubbler (a person who believed the existence of said bubble when everyone denied it), nuncabajista (one who makes real estate investments thinking that housing never goes down in price), pepito (a person whose only desire is to get a mortgage in order to become middle class), visillera (the feminine of pepito, for her desire to be the owner of a home where she can hang curtains) or cipoteca (mortgage with abusive conditions).

Another phrase that made a fortune was the title of a report on housing in Spain published in 2007 by Deutsche Bank and titled "living la vida loca" (lyrics to a well-known song),[239]​ in reference to the intense urbanization that had occurred until then. Also a source of ridicule was the creation, by the Ministry of Housing, of a portal called "Kelifinder" (a term composed of keli, which in youth slang means house, and finder, from the English to find, to find), which has not had the expected success.[240]​.

The novel Crematorio&action=edit&redlink=1 "Crematorio (book) (not yet written)") by Rafael Chirbes, set in the fictional Misent (transcript of Denia[241]​) has portrayed the real estate bubble in Spain.[241]​.

• - Social rent.

• - Urban corruption in Spain.

• - Dation in payment.

• - Euribor.

• - Movement for Decent Housing in Spain.

• - Land (urban planning) "Land (urban planning)").

• - Average house price.

Institutional pages

• - Ministry of housing.

• - Bank of Spain, housing market indicators, especially analysis of housing prices in Spain from the 70s and 80s to 2003.

• - Young Housing Observatory in Spain (Spanish Youth Council).

• - Statistics from the Ministry of Development on housing Archived November 4, 2013 at the Wayback Machine.

Reports from international organizations

• - Federal Reserve: housing in the world.

• - OECD: the international price of housing.

• - UN: Report on housing in Spain: preliminary document.

Other unofficial reports

• - Speculative Bubble Detection, J F Bellod.

Videos

• - The end of the bubble: 30-minute video about the real estate bubble, TV3, in Catalan with Spanish subtitles.

• - Interview with Jesús Encinar, CEO of Idealista.com about the state of housing in Spain (05/14/08).

• - Spain, from the real estate bubble to the Crisis (by Aleix Saló).

• - I already said it. Chronicle of a crisis foretold, Salvados, September 23, 2012, LaSexta.