Adaptation can be defined as adjustments to a system to reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of systems to changes, in this case in the climate system.[38]​ Adaptation occurs at a range of inter-linked scales, and can occur either in anticipation of change (anticipatory adaptation), or be a response to those changes (reactive adaptation).[39]​ Most adaptation is currently being implemented in response to current climate trends and variability, for example, greater use of the creation of artificial snow in the European Alps. Some adaptation measures, however, are anticipating future climate change, such as building the Confederation Bridge in Canada at a higher elevation to account for the effect of future sea level rise on ship clearance under the bridge.[38]​.

Adaptive capacity and vulnerability are important concepts for understanding adaptation; Vulnerability can be seen as the context in which adaptation takes place, and adaptive capacity is the capacity or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change, in order to reduce negative effects and take advantage of new opportunities. Societies that can respond to change quickly and successfully have high adaptive capacity. High adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into successful adaptation. For example, adaptive capacity in Western Europe is high, and the risks of warmer winters increasing the range of livestock diseases was well documented, but many parts of Europe were being severely affected by outbreaks of bluetongue virus in livestock in 2007.

Adaptive capacity is driven by factors that operate at different interrelated scales, and it is important to understand the ways in which different adaptive capacity drivers interact. Physical limitations are important, but in most cases, it is social processes that increase or decrease the ability to adapt; It can be said that adaptive capacity is a social construction.[40]​ The social factors of adaptive capacity are very varied, but can include broad structures such as economic and political processes, as well as processes that operate at a very local scale, such as access to decision-making and the structure of social networks and relationships within a community. The capacity to adapt at a local scale is limited by larger scale processes. For example, the adaptive capacity of farmers will not only depend on access to resources (physical and social) within the community that allow a crop to be successfully grown, but also the effect of macro-scale economic processes on the price received for the crop.[39]​ Gender "Gender (social sciences)") is another factor that is important in determining limited adaptive capacity and vulnerability,[41]​ for example, women may have participation in decision-making, or be limited by the lower levels of education.[38]​.

The social construction of adaptive capacity is very important when thinking about the risks and impacts of a changing climate. It is not only the change in climate that will affect vulnerability and livelihoods, but the way in which these changes are negotiated through complex social systems. A 10% decrease in rainfall (Precipitation (meteorology)) may be acceptable and manageable to members of a community who do not have access to improved agricultural techniques, or whose livelihoods are somehow diversified, while marginalized members of the community may not be able to cope with these changes.[39] Adaptation can be seen as a social and institutional process that involves reflecting on and responding to current trends and anticipated changes in the environment. climate.[42]​.

Both temporal and spatial scales are very important in reflecting on adaptation, as is the necessary frame of reference to study adaptation. Much effort will be made regarding short-term climate variability, however, this may cause poor adaptation to long-term climate trends. For example, Egypt's expansion of irrigation into the western Sinai Desert due to a period of increased river flow is a maladaptation when viewed in relation to longer-term projections of drying in the region.[43] Adaptations at one scale can also create externalities at another by reducing the adaptive capacity of other actors. This is often the case when broad assessments of the costs and benefits of adaptation are examined at smaller scales and it is possible to see that, while adaptation may benefit some actors, it has a negative effect on others.[39]​.

From the current literature on the subject, people have always adapted to a changing climate and coping strategies already exist in many communities, for example changing planting dates or adopting new water saving techniques.[43] Traditional knowledge and coping strategies must be maintained and strengthened, otherwise adaptive capacity may weaken as local knowledge of the environment is lost. Strengthening these indigenous techniques and building on them also makes it more likely that adaptation strategies will be adopted, as it creates more community ownership and participation in the process.[38]​ In some cases, however this will not be enough to adapt to new conditions that are outside the range of those already experienced, and new techniques will be necessary.[40]​.

James Titus, sea level rise project manager at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, identifies the following criteria that policymakers should use in evaluating responses to global warming:[44]​.

The United Nations Development Program estimates that an additional $86 billion per year would be needed in 2015.[45]​.

According to the UNFCCC it is estimated that in 2007, the costs of adaptation to climate change would cost $49-171 billion per year globally by 2030,[46]​ of which a significant portion of investment and financial flows, $27-66 billion would be needed in 2030 in non-Annex I Parties.[47]​ This represents double the ongoing official development assistance (ODA).

This estimate has been criticized by Parry et al. (2009), in a study conducted jointly by IIED and the Grantham Institute, which argues that the UNFCCC estimate underestimates the cost of adaptation to climate change by a factor of 2 or 3.[48] On the other hand, sectors such as tourism, mining, energy, and retail were not included in the UNFCCC estimate.

The World Bank's most recent study on the 'Economics of Climate Change Adaptation' found that the costs of adaptation would be in the range of $75-100 million per year between 2010 and 2050; with higher estimates under the wetter global scenario than the drier scenario, assuming that warming will be about 2 degrees by 2050.[49]​.

The benefits of forceful, early action in mitigation considerably outweigh the costs.[50]​ The Copenhagen Accord was agreed in order to create a commitment by developed countries to provide:[51]​.

However, a key point of contention between states at the Copenhagen Climate Summit at the UNFCCC was who was going to foot the bill and if aid should be given, how does development aid affect other levels?[51]​ The concept of additionality has emerged and therefore the EU (European Union) has asked its Member States to come up with definitions of what they understand about the meaning of additionality, the four main definitions being:[51]​.

The main point is that there is a conflict between budget deficit cuts in OECD states, the need to help developing countries adapt to sustainable development and the need to ensure that funding does not come to cut support for other important Millennium Development Goals.[51]​.

Scheraga and Grambsch[52]​ identify nine fundamental principles that must be considered in the design of adaptation policies:

Adaptation through local planning

Local land use and municipal planning represent important avenues for adaptation to global warming. These forms of planning are recognized as fundamental to avoid the effects of climate-related hazards, such as flooding and heat stress "Thermal (environmental) stress"), planning for demographic transition and consumption, and plans for ecosystem conservation.[53]​ This type of planning is different from national adaptation programs (NAPs), which are to be the frameworks for prioritizing adaptation needs.[54]​ At a local scale, municipalities are at the front line of adaptation carbon where Impacts are experienced in the forms of floods, forest fires, heat waves and sea level rise.[55]​.

Cities are planning to adapt to global warming and climate change. The New York Times began a series of articles on this topic highlighting Chicago's adaptation efforts.[56] Projects include switching from warming tolerant tree varieties, watering permeable pavements to absorb higher rainfall, and adding air conditioning in public schools. New York and other cities are engaged in similar planning.[57][58][59] Carefully planned water storage could help urban areas adapt to increasingly severe storms by increasing stormwater storage (household water butts, unpaved gardens, etc.) and increasing the capacity of stormwater systems (and also separating stormwater from sewage, so that when overflow in high seasons does not pollute the rivers). According to Nature English"), gardeners can help mitigate the effects of climate change by providing habitats for the most threatened species, and/or saving water by changing gardens to use plants that require less.[60]​.

Adaptation through local planning occurs in two different ways. The first is strategic planning, which is important, but is not exclusive to local governments. At the local level, the community vision, aspirational goals and place of decision-making are promoted, along with the definition of the paths to achieve these objectives. The second form is land use planning, and focuses on the allocation of space to balance economic prosperity "Prosperity (economy)") with acceptable standards of living and the conservation of natural resources. Although these two types of planning are very different in practice, and in many cases are managed by different departments, it is proposed that both are very important for adaptation to climate change, and can contribute to achieving adaptation at a local scale.[61] Important constraints are recognized to hinder adaptation through planning, including limited resources, lack of information, competing planning agendas and meeting the requirements of other levels of government.[62] Examples of adaptation include defending against sea level rise. through improved flood defenses, and changes in land use patterns such as avoiding the most vulnerable areas of housing.

Planning for sea level rise is one of the key challenges for local planning in response to climate change. Many national governments around the world have sought to address the problem of sea level rise through policy and planning reforms aimed at increasing adaptive capacity.[63]​ In the United States, many state and local governments are evaluating innovative and locality-specific options for adapting to sea level rise.[64][65] Although adaptation planning occurs through a variety of processes, local adaptation initiatives in the US often go through three stages of adaptation planning. the adaptation:[66]​.

Improve adaptive capacity

In an evaluation of the literature, Smit et al. (2001) concluded that improved adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerability to climate change.[67] In their view, activities that improve adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to activities that promote sustainable development. These activities include:[68]​.

Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute found that development interventions to increase adaptive capacity have tended not to result in greater agency for local people.[69] They argue that this should play a more prominent role in future intervention planning because agency is a central factor in all other aspects of adaptive capacity.

agricultural production

A major effect of global climate change is the alteration of global precipitation patterns, with certain effects on agriculture.[70] Seasonal agriculture constitutes 80% of global agriculture. Many of the world's 852 million poor people live in areas of Asia and Africa that depend on rain to grow and harvest food. As the world's population swells, more food will be needed, but climate variability is likely to make successful agriculture more difficult. Prolonged drought can cause the failure of small and marginal farms, generating economic, political and social problems. However, these types of events have occurred previously in human history independent of global climate change. In recent decades, global trade has created distribution networks capable of transporting surplus food to where it is most needed, thus reducing the local impact.[70]​.

Drought-tolerant crop varieties

Any type of agriculture is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify precipitation "Precipitation (meteorology)"), evaporation, circulation and storage of soil moisture. Changes in seasonal precipitation totals or in their pattern of variability are important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination and grain filling is detrimental to most crops and particularly corn, soybeans and wheat. Increased soil evaporation and plant transpiration will cause accelerated water stress. As a result, there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance.

More spending on irrigation

Demand for water for irrigation is expected to increase in a warmer climate, bringing increased competition between agriculture, which is already the largest consumer of water resources in semi-arid regions, and urban, as well as industrial users. Falling water tables and the resulting increase in the energy needed to pump water will make the irrigation practice more expensive, particularly when drier conditions will require more water per hectare. Other strategies will be needed to make the use of water resources more efficient. For example, the International Water Management Institute has suggested five strategies that could help Asia feed its growing population in the face of climate change. These are:

forest resources

They are the most important means of adaptation for forest-dependent people whose lives have depended on it. If the long duration of the drought persists, it will certainly affect the rain-fed agricultural system. In this situation, people can collect the edible fruits, roots (botanical) and leaves for their survival. Similarly, forest resources provide not only goods but also services such as regulating ecosystems, maintaining upstream-downstream linkages through watershed conservation, carbon sequestration and aesthetic value. These services become a fundamental part of sustained life by increasing the adaptive capacity of the poor and vulnerable, women and socially excluded communities.

Rainwater storage

Providing farmers with access to a wide range of store water could help them overcome periods of drought that would otherwise cause their crops to fail. Field studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of small-scale water storage. For example, according to the International Water Management Institute, using small water-planted 'harvest' basins in Zimbabwe has been shown to increase maize yields whether rainfall is abundant or scarce. And in Niger, they have resulted in a three- or four-fold increase in millet yields.[72]​.

Time control

Russian and American scientists in the past have tried to control the climate, for example by seeding clouds with chemicals to try to produce rain when and where it is needed. A new method being developed involves replicating the urban heat island effect, where cities are slightly hotter than the countryside as they are darker and absorb more heat. This creates 28% more rainfall 20 to 40 miles downwind of cities compared to the wind.[73]​ On the time scale of several decades, new weather monitoring techniques may become viable as they would allow control of extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes.[74]​.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through its Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CEC) has issued a "DECLARATION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION", as well as "GUIDELINES FOR PLANNING ACTIVITIES in climate modification" in 2007, indicating among others that "For the purpose of increasing precipitation (meteorology), reducing hail damage, fog dispersion and other types of clouds and storm modifications, cloud seeding technologies are being developed that are still struggling to achieve a solid scientific basis and that have to adapt greatly to varied natural conditions."[75]​.

Glacial lake damming

Snowmelt flooding may become a major concern as glaciers shrink, leaving behind numerous lakes that are often impounded by a terminal of weak moraine dams. In the past, the sudden failure of these dams has resulted in localized property damage, injuries and deaths. Glacial lakes in danger of bursting may have their moraines replaced with concrete dams (which can also provide hydroelectric power).[76]​.

Geoengineering

In an evaluation of the literature, Barker et al. (2007) described geoengineering as a type of mitigation policy.[77] IPCC (2007) concluded that geoengineering options, such as ocean fertilization to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, remained largely untested.[78] Reliable cost estimates for geoengineering were considered unpublished.

The Royal Society (2009) published the results of a study on geoengineering. The authors of the study defined geoengineering as a "deliberate, large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system, with the aim of moderating global warming" (p. ix). According to the study, the safest and most predictable method of moderating climate change is early action to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions.

Scientists such as Ken Caldeira and Paul Crutzen[80] suggest geoengineering techniques, which can be used to deliberately change the climate and thus control some of the effects of global warming. These include:

Helping disadvantaged countries

In 2000, there was a proposal made at the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which called for the creation of an Adaptation Fund with $1 billion a year for developing countries, especially the least developed and small island states, to enable them to combat the consequences of climate change.

Many scientists, policy makers and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have agreed that disadvantaged countries, especially in the global south, need more attention to the negative impacts of climate change. These regions are highly populated and people generally have lower adaptive capacity. A balance, however, between development and climate change mitigation and adaptation has to be found.

In the southern part of the world, national governments are primarily responsible for the formulation and execution of the adaptation plan, from the local to the national level. In this context, a contradictory situation exists. National governments assign a high priority to non-climate change policies and plans for development. Development agendas are driven by pre-existing problems, such as poverty, malnutrition, food insecurity,[81]​ the availability of drinking water, indebtedness, illiteracy, unemployment, local resource conflicts, less technological development, etc. Here, it is important to recognize that if the phenomenon of climate change is not properly understood and coping strategies such as mitigation and adaptation are not adopted in a timely manner, the impacts of climate change will exacerbate these pre-existing problems.

Therefore, there is a need to explore integration strategies between climate change plans and development plans in the south of the globe. This integration must include principles such as social justice and equity, the inclusion of the marginal population in decision-making, participation and the promotion of social cohesion of women. The inclusion of these principles will not only promote climate change mitigation and adaptation, but will also make development more distributive.

The Institute for Development Studies' collaborative research points to the links between adaptation and poverty to help develop a pro-poor adaptation agenda that can inform poverty reduction and climate resilience. Adaptation to climate change will be "ineffective and unfair if it fails to learn from and build on an understanding of the multidimensional and differentiated nature of poverty and vulnerability."[82]​ The poorest countries tend to be the most severely affected by climate change, yet they have reduced assets and capacities with which to adapt. This has led to more activities to integrate adaptation into development and poverty reduction programmes. The rise of adaptation as a development issue has been influenced by concerns around minimizing threats to progress on poverty reduction, particularly the MDGs, and by the injustice of impacts felt most difficult by those who have done the least to contribute to the problem, framing adaptation as an equity and a matter of right.[83]​.

Migration

Recent literature has also presented the concept of migration as a climate change survival mechanism. Climate change push factors are compared with economic or social pull factors: the role of climate change in migration is therefore not a linear cause and effect. Migration often requires potential migrants to have access to social and financial capital, such as support networks in their chosen destination, and funds to move. Often the last adaptive response households will take to environmental factors that threaten their livelihoods, and especially when they resorted to other coping mechanisms they have not been successful. Migration and Climate Change, a UNESCO publication, explores the dynamics of environmental migration and the role of migration as an adaptive response to climate change.[84]​.

Insurance

One method of adaptation to climate change is encouraging individual actions to mitigate, spread, or transfer the risk of damage. Specifically, one of the existing tools is insurance, whether for a general catastrophe or real floods. The idea is to allow reactive options to rebuild communities after the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.[85]​ Although it may be preferable to take a proactive approach to eliminate the cause of the risk, post-damage reactive compensation can be used as a last resort.[86]​ Access to reinsurance can be a way to increase the resilience of cities.[87]​ When there are failures in the private insurance market, the public sector creates residual market mechanisms (RMM) to encourage reducing individual risk by subsidizing premiums.[88]​ One study identified key equity issues for policy considerations:[89]​.

Government-subsidized insurance, such as the United States National Flood Insurance Program, is criticized for providing a perverse incentive to develop properties in hazardous areas, increasing overall risk.[90] This behavioral effect can be counteracted with appropriate land use policies that limit new construction where they are perceived and/or encourage the adoption of damage-resistant building codes to mitigate potential current or future climate risks.[91]

The aggregate of current climate change adaptation programs will not raise enough money to finance climate change adaptation.[92]​ However, there are several programs and proposals to finance climate change adaptation in developing countries. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change runs a program called the Global Environment, which provides some adaptation funding to least developed countries and small island states.[93]​ Under the umbrella of the GEF, the GEF Trust Fund, the Fund for the Least Developed Countries (LDC) and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) operate to carry out climate change adaptation by financing the goals of the GEF.[93]​ Another mechanism has been implemented through the Adaptation Fund, as a result of negotiations during COP15 and COP16, which provides funds for projects that demonstrate additional benefits for adaptation to climate change. There are several financing proposals for climate change adaptation, most of which use official development assistance or ODA.[16]​.

These proposals range from a World Bank program, to proposals involving the auction of carbon allowances, to a global carbon or transportation tax, to offset-based financing.[16] Other proposals suggest the use of market-based mechanisms, rather than ODA, such as the Higher Ground Foundation's Vulnerability Reduction Credit (VRC™)[94]​ or a program similar to the Clean Development Mechanism,[95]​ to raise private money for climate adaptation. climate change. The Copenhagen Accord, the most recent agreement on global climate change, commits countries to send $100 billion a year to developing countries as assistance for climate change mitigation and adaptation through 2020.[96] This agreement was developed, although not linked, could dwarf current amounts dedicated to adaptation in developing countries. This climate change fund is called the 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference Green Climate Fund.[97]​.

Numerosos países, entre ellos Australia, han celebrado consultas y han planeado o iniciado medidas de adaptación. El estado de California también ha publicado un documento titulado "2009 California Clima Adaptación Estrategia Discusión Proyecto" que resume la ciencia más conocida en los impactos del cambio climático en siete sectores específicos y ofrece recomendaciones sobre cómo manejarse contra esas amenazas.[98]​ Las comunidades más pobres también han recibido ayuda para la adaptación al clima en lugares como Bangladés.[99]​[100]​[101]​[102]​.

National Program of Action for Adaptation

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) helps least developed countries (LDCs) identify climate change adaptation needs by funding the development of the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAP). The NAPA is intended to provide LDCs with the opportunity to identify their "urgent and immediate needs" for climate change adaptation.[103]​ As part of the NAP process, LDC government ministries, usually with the assistance of development agencies, assess their countries' vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. They then develop a prioritized list of adaptation projects that will help the country address the adverse effects of climate change. LDCs that submit NAPs to the UNFCCC will be eligible for funding through the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC Fund) for NAP projects. The LDC Fund was designed through the UNFCCC to specifically assist least developed countries as they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.[104] To date, forty-five least developed countries have written and submitted NAPs to the UNFCCC, with Nepal being the last country to submit its NAPA in November 2010.[105] Three more countries (Angola, Myanmar and East Timor) are scheduled to complete their national programs. adaptation for the end of 2011.[106]​.

Contenido

En el 8 de febrero de 2007 el problema de la Naturaleza, un equipo de expertos en políticas de ciencia sostienen que la adaptación al cambio climático sería un medio más eficaz de lidiar con el calentamiento global que reduciendo las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.[19]​.

National Academy of Sciences

An important attempt to address adaptation was a 1991 report by the United States National Academy of Sciences, "National Academy of Sciences (United States)", "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming." The National Academy report warned that agricultural adaptation will be essential in a greenhouse world.[20]​.

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) recognizes climate change adaptation as part of the disaster risk reduction domain, as it intends to reduce the risks that vulnerable populations may encounter due to climate change.[21]​.

IPCC Working Group II

IPCC Working Group II maintains that mitigation and adaptation must be complementary components of a strategy that responds to global warming. Their report makes the following observations:.

Adaptation is a necessary strategy

Due to the current and projected climate disruption precipitated by high levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in industrialized countries, adaptation is a necessary strategy at all levels as a complement to climate change mitigation efforts, because we cannot be sure that all climate change can be mitigated. And in fact the odds are quite high that in the long term further warming is inevitable, given the high level of GHGs in the atmosphere, and the lag (several decades) between emissions and impact.

Adaptation has the potential to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but it will incur costs and will not prevent all harm. Extremes, variability, and rates of change are key characteristics for addressing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, not just changes in average climate conditions.[23]​.

Human and natural systems will be to some extent autonomous in adapting to climate change.[23]​ Planned adaptation can complement autonomous adaptation, although there are more options and a greater possibility of offering incentives in the case of adaptation of human systems than in the case of adaptation to protect natural systems.[24]​.

disadvantaged nations

The ability of human systems to adapt and cope with climate change depends on factors such as wealth, technology, education, infrastructure, access to resources, management capabilities, acceptance of the existence of climate change and the consequent need for action, and socio-political will. Populations and communities are highly variable in their endowments of these attributes, with developing nations being among the worst placed to adapt to global warming.

Mutual reinforcement

Many communities and regions vulnerable to climate change are also under pressure due to factors such as population growth, resource depletion, and poverty. Policies to decrease pressures on resources, improve environmental risk management, and increase the well-being of the poorest members of society can simultaneously advance sustainable development and equity, improve adaptive capacity, and reduce vulnerability to climate and other stressors. The inclusion of climate risks in the design and implementation of national and international development initiatives, such as polar cities, can promote equity and development, which is more sustainable and reduces vulnerability to climate change.[25]​.

Mitigation

Yohe et al. (2007) evaluated the literature on sustainability and climate change.[26] With great confidence, they suggested that through the year 2050, an effort to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 550 ppm would benefit developing countries significantly. This was judged to be especially the case, when combined with improved adaptation. In 2100, however, it was still judged as unlikely to make the impacts of climate change significant. The case was considered even with aggressive mitigation and significantly improved adaptive capacity.

Compensation and economics

Adaptation and mitigation can be seen as two competing policy responses, with trade-offs between the two. The other offset is the impacts of climate change. In practice, however, the actual advantages and disadvantages are debatable (Schneider et al., 2001).[27] This is because people who bear the costs of emissions reductions or benefits are often different from those who pay or benefit from adaptation measures.

Economists, using cost-benefit analysis, have attempted to calculate an "optimal" balance of costs and benefits between the impacts of climate change, adaptation and mitigation (Toth et al., 2001).[28] There are difficulties in making this calculation, for example, the future damages of climate change are uncertain, as are the future costs of adaptation.

Likewise, deciding what is "optimal" depends on value judgments made by the economist to do the study (Azar, 1998).[29]​ For example, how to value impacts that occur in different regions and different times, and "non-market" impacts, for example, damage to ecosystems (Smith et al., 2001).[30]​ Economics cannot give definitive answers to these questions about valuation, and some valuations can. be seen as controversial (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 87, 99).[31]​.

Some comments indicate that policymakers are not comfortable using the results of this type of economic analysis (Klein et al., 2007).[32] This is due to the uncertainty surrounding cost estimates of climate change damages, adaptation and mitigation. Another type of analysis is based on a risk-based approach to the problem. Stern (2007) (named by Klein et al., 2007), for example, uses such an approach. He argued that adaptation could play an important role in climate policy, but not in an explicit trade-off against mitigation.

UNFCCC

In the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where the majority of countries are Parties (UNFCCC, n.d.),[33]​ have committed to helping the most vulnerable adapt to climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 98).[31]​ The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), created within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol of the Framework Convention, is the main source of income for the UNFCCC Adaptation Fund. This fund was established in 2007 (World Bank, 2010, pp. 262-263).[34]​ The CDM is subject to a 2% tax, which could increase between 300 million and $600 million in the period 2008-2012. The actual amount raised will depend on the carbon price.

Although created under the Kyoto Protocol, the Adaptation Fund has been very slow to become operational and has not yet (August 2010) disbursed any funds. The call for proposals was published in April 2010.[35]​.

Institution of Mechanical Engineers

In February 2009, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (UK) issued a report in which they expressed pessimism about the ability of any international agreement such as the Kyoto Treaty to reduce carbon emissions. While they did not rule out mitigation policy altogether, they stated that they are "realistic enough to recognize that global CO2 emissions are not reducing and our climate is changing; unless we adapt, we will have to face a difficult."[36]​[37]​.

Adaptation can be defined as adjustments to a system to reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of systems to changes, in this case in the climate system.[38]​ Adaptation occurs at a range of inter-linked scales, and can occur either in anticipation of change (anticipatory adaptation), or be a response to those changes (reactive adaptation).[39]​ Most adaptation is currently being implemented in response to current climate trends and variability, for example, greater use of the creation of artificial snow in the European Alps. Some adaptation measures, however, are anticipating future climate change, such as building the Confederation Bridge in Canada at a higher elevation to account for the effect of future sea level rise on ship clearance under the bridge.[38]​.

Adaptive capacity and vulnerability are important concepts for understanding adaptation; Vulnerability can be seen as the context in which adaptation takes place, and adaptive capacity is the capacity or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change, in order to reduce negative effects and take advantage of new opportunities. Societies that can respond to change quickly and successfully have high adaptive capacity. High adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into successful adaptation. For example, adaptive capacity in Western Europe is high, and the risks of warmer winters increasing the range of livestock diseases was well documented, but many parts of Europe were being severely affected by outbreaks of bluetongue virus in livestock in 2007.

Adaptive capacity is driven by factors that operate at different interrelated scales, and it is important to understand the ways in which different adaptive capacity drivers interact. Physical limitations are important, but in most cases, it is social processes that increase or decrease the ability to adapt; It can be said that adaptive capacity is a social construction.[40]​ The social factors of adaptive capacity are very varied, but can include broad structures such as economic and political processes, as well as processes that operate at a very local scale, such as access to decision-making and the structure of social networks and relationships within a community. The capacity to adapt at a local scale is limited by larger scale processes. For example, the adaptive capacity of farmers will not only depend on access to resources (physical and social) within the community that allow a crop to be successfully grown, but also the effect of macro-scale economic processes on the price received for the crop.[39]​ Gender "Gender (social sciences)") is another factor that is important in determining limited adaptive capacity and vulnerability,[41]​ for example, women may have participation in decision-making, or be limited by the lower levels of education.[38]​.

The social construction of adaptive capacity is very important when thinking about the risks and impacts of a changing climate. It is not only the change in climate that will affect vulnerability and livelihoods, but the way in which these changes are negotiated through complex social systems. A 10% decrease in rainfall (Precipitation (meteorology)) may be acceptable and manageable to members of a community who do not have access to improved agricultural techniques, or whose livelihoods are somehow diversified, while marginalized members of the community may not be able to cope with these changes.[39] Adaptation can be seen as a social and institutional process that involves reflecting on and responding to current trends and anticipated changes in the environment. climate.[42]​.

Both temporal and spatial scales are very important in reflecting on adaptation, as is the necessary frame of reference to study adaptation. Much effort will be made regarding short-term climate variability, however, this may cause poor adaptation to long-term climate trends. For example, Egypt's expansion of irrigation into the western Sinai Desert due to a period of increased river flow is a maladaptation when viewed in relation to longer-term projections of drying in the region.[43] Adaptations at one scale can also create externalities at another by reducing the adaptive capacity of other actors. This is often the case when broad assessments of the costs and benefits of adaptation are examined at smaller scales and it is possible to see that, while adaptation may benefit some actors, it has a negative effect on others.[39]​.

From the current literature on the subject, people have always adapted to a changing climate and coping strategies already exist in many communities, for example changing planting dates or adopting new water saving techniques.[43] Traditional knowledge and coping strategies must be maintained and strengthened, otherwise adaptive capacity may weaken as local knowledge of the environment is lost. Strengthening these indigenous techniques and building on them also makes it more likely that adaptation strategies will be adopted, as it creates more community ownership and participation in the process.[38]​ In some cases, however this will not be enough to adapt to new conditions that are outside the range of those already experienced, and new techniques will be necessary.[40]​.

James Titus, sea level rise project manager at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, identifies the following criteria that policymakers should use in evaluating responses to global warming:[44]​.

The United Nations Development Program estimates that an additional $86 billion per year would be needed in 2015.[45]​.

According to the UNFCCC it is estimated that in 2007, the costs of adaptation to climate change would cost $49-171 billion per year globally by 2030,[46]​ of which a significant portion of investment and financial flows, $27-66 billion would be needed in 2030 in non-Annex I Parties.[47]​ This represents double the ongoing official development assistance (ODA).

This estimate has been criticized by Parry et al. (2009), in a study conducted jointly by IIED and the Grantham Institute, which argues that the UNFCCC estimate underestimates the cost of adaptation to climate change by a factor of 2 or 3.[48] On the other hand, sectors such as tourism, mining, energy, and retail were not included in the UNFCCC estimate.

The World Bank's most recent study on the 'Economics of Climate Change Adaptation' found that the costs of adaptation would be in the range of $75-100 million per year between 2010 and 2050; with higher estimates under the wetter global scenario than the drier scenario, assuming that warming will be about 2 degrees by 2050.[49]​.

The benefits of forceful, early action in mitigation considerably outweigh the costs.[50]​ The Copenhagen Accord was agreed in order to create a commitment by developed countries to provide:[51]​.

However, a key point of contention between states at the Copenhagen Climate Summit at the UNFCCC was who was going to foot the bill and if aid should be given, how does development aid affect other levels?[51]​ The concept of additionality has emerged and therefore the EU (European Union) has asked its Member States to come up with definitions of what they understand about the meaning of additionality, the four main definitions being:[51]​.

The main point is that there is a conflict between budget deficit cuts in OECD states, the need to help developing countries adapt to sustainable development and the need to ensure that funding does not come to cut support for other important Millennium Development Goals.[51]​.

Scheraga and Grambsch[52]​ identify nine fundamental principles that must be considered in the design of adaptation policies:

Adaptation through local planning

Local land use and municipal planning represent important avenues for adaptation to global warming. These forms of planning are recognized as fundamental to avoid the effects of climate-related hazards, such as flooding and heat stress "Thermal (environmental) stress"), planning for demographic transition and consumption, and plans for ecosystem conservation.[53]​ This type of planning is different from national adaptation programs (NAPs), which are to be the frameworks for prioritizing adaptation needs.[54]​ At a local scale, municipalities are at the front line of adaptation carbon where Impacts are experienced in the forms of floods, forest fires, heat waves and sea level rise.[55]​.

Cities are planning to adapt to global warming and climate change. The New York Times began a series of articles on this topic highlighting Chicago's adaptation efforts.[56] Projects include switching from warming tolerant tree varieties, watering permeable pavements to absorb higher rainfall, and adding air conditioning in public schools. New York and other cities are engaged in similar planning.[57][58][59] Carefully planned water storage could help urban areas adapt to increasingly severe storms by increasing stormwater storage (household water butts, unpaved gardens, etc.) and increasing the capacity of stormwater systems (and also separating stormwater from sewage, so that when overflow in high seasons does not pollute the rivers). According to Nature English"), gardeners can help mitigate the effects of climate change by providing habitats for the most threatened species, and/or saving water by changing gardens to use plants that require less.[60]​.

Adaptation through local planning occurs in two different ways. The first is strategic planning, which is important, but is not exclusive to local governments. At the local level, the community vision, aspirational goals and place of decision-making are promoted, along with the definition of the paths to achieve these objectives. The second form is land use planning, and focuses on the allocation of space to balance economic prosperity "Prosperity (economy)") with acceptable standards of living and the conservation of natural resources. Although these two types of planning are very different in practice, and in many cases are managed by different departments, it is proposed that both are very important for adaptation to climate change, and can contribute to achieving adaptation at a local scale.[61] Important constraints are recognized to hinder adaptation through planning, including limited resources, lack of information, competing planning agendas and meeting the requirements of other levels of government.[62] Examples of adaptation include defending against sea level rise. through improved flood defenses, and changes in land use patterns such as avoiding the most vulnerable areas of housing.

Planning for sea level rise is one of the key challenges for local planning in response to climate change. Many national governments around the world have sought to address the problem of sea level rise through policy and planning reforms aimed at increasing adaptive capacity.[63]​ In the United States, many state and local governments are evaluating innovative and locality-specific options for adapting to sea level rise.[64][65] Although adaptation planning occurs through a variety of processes, local adaptation initiatives in the US often go through three stages of adaptation planning. the adaptation:[66]​.

Improve adaptive capacity

In an evaluation of the literature, Smit et al. (2001) concluded that improved adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerability to climate change.[67] In their view, activities that improve adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to activities that promote sustainable development. These activities include:[68]​.

Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute found that development interventions to increase adaptive capacity have tended not to result in greater agency for local people.[69] They argue that this should play a more prominent role in future intervention planning because agency is a central factor in all other aspects of adaptive capacity.

agricultural production

A major effect of global climate change is the alteration of global precipitation patterns, with certain effects on agriculture.[70] Seasonal agriculture constitutes 80% of global agriculture. Many of the world's 852 million poor people live in areas of Asia and Africa that depend on rain to grow and harvest food. As the world's population swells, more food will be needed, but climate variability is likely to make successful agriculture more difficult. Prolonged drought can cause the failure of small and marginal farms, generating economic, political and social problems. However, these types of events have occurred previously in human history independent of global climate change. In recent decades, global trade has created distribution networks capable of transporting surplus food to where it is most needed, thus reducing the local impact.[70]​.

Drought-tolerant crop varieties

Any type of agriculture is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify precipitation "Precipitation (meteorology)"), evaporation, circulation and storage of soil moisture. Changes in seasonal precipitation totals or in their pattern of variability are important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination and grain filling is detrimental to most crops and particularly corn, soybeans and wheat. Increased soil evaporation and plant transpiration will cause accelerated water stress. As a result, there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance.

More spending on irrigation

Demand for water for irrigation is expected to increase in a warmer climate, bringing increased competition between agriculture, which is already the largest consumer of water resources in semi-arid regions, and urban, as well as industrial users. Falling water tables and the resulting increase in the energy needed to pump water will make the irrigation practice more expensive, particularly when drier conditions will require more water per hectare. Other strategies will be needed to make the use of water resources more efficient. For example, the International Water Management Institute has suggested five strategies that could help Asia feed its growing population in the face of climate change. These are:

forest resources

They are the most important means of adaptation for forest-dependent people whose lives have depended on it. If the long duration of the drought persists, it will certainly affect the rain-fed agricultural system. In this situation, people can collect the edible fruits, roots (botanical) and leaves for their survival. Similarly, forest resources provide not only goods but also services such as regulating ecosystems, maintaining upstream-downstream linkages through watershed conservation, carbon sequestration and aesthetic value. These services become a fundamental part of sustained life by increasing the adaptive capacity of the poor and vulnerable, women and socially excluded communities.

Rainwater storage

Providing farmers with access to a wide range of store water could help them overcome periods of drought that would otherwise cause their crops to fail. Field studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of small-scale water storage. For example, according to the International Water Management Institute, using small water-planted 'harvest' basins in Zimbabwe has been shown to increase maize yields whether rainfall is abundant or scarce. And in Niger, they have resulted in a three- or four-fold increase in millet yields.[72]​.

Time control

Russian and American scientists in the past have tried to control the climate, for example by seeding clouds with chemicals to try to produce rain when and where it is needed. A new method being developed involves replicating the urban heat island effect, where cities are slightly hotter than the countryside as they are darker and absorb more heat. This creates 28% more rainfall 20 to 40 miles downwind of cities compared to the wind.[73]​ On the time scale of several decades, new weather monitoring techniques may become viable as they would allow control of extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes.[74]​.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through its Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CEC) has issued a "DECLARATION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION", as well as "GUIDELINES FOR PLANNING ACTIVITIES in climate modification" in 2007, indicating among others that "For the purpose of increasing precipitation (meteorology), reducing hail damage, fog dispersion and other types of clouds and storm modifications, cloud seeding technologies are being developed that are still struggling to achieve a solid scientific basis and that have to adapt greatly to varied natural conditions."[75]​.

Glacial lake damming

Snowmelt flooding may become a major concern as glaciers shrink, leaving behind numerous lakes that are often impounded by a terminal of weak moraine dams. In the past, the sudden failure of these dams has resulted in localized property damage, injuries and deaths. Glacial lakes in danger of bursting may have their moraines replaced with concrete dams (which can also provide hydroelectric power).[76]​.

Geoengineering

In an evaluation of the literature, Barker et al. (2007) described geoengineering as a type of mitigation policy.[77] IPCC (2007) concluded that geoengineering options, such as ocean fertilization to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, remained largely untested.[78] Reliable cost estimates for geoengineering were considered unpublished.

The Royal Society (2009) published the results of a study on geoengineering. The authors of the study defined geoengineering as a "deliberate, large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system, with the aim of moderating global warming" (p. ix). According to the study, the safest and most predictable method of moderating climate change is early action to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions.

Scientists such as Ken Caldeira and Paul Crutzen[80] suggest geoengineering techniques, which can be used to deliberately change the climate and thus control some of the effects of global warming. These include:

Helping disadvantaged countries

In 2000, there was a proposal made at the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which called for the creation of an Adaptation Fund with $1 billion a year for developing countries, especially the least developed and small island states, to enable them to combat the consequences of climate change.

Many scientists, policy makers and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have agreed that disadvantaged countries, especially in the global south, need more attention to the negative impacts of climate change. These regions are highly populated and people generally have lower adaptive capacity. A balance, however, between development and climate change mitigation and adaptation has to be found.

In the southern part of the world, national governments are primarily responsible for the formulation and execution of the adaptation plan, from the local to the national level. In this context, a contradictory situation exists. National governments assign a high priority to non-climate change policies and plans for development. Development agendas are driven by pre-existing problems, such as poverty, malnutrition, food insecurity,[81]​ the availability of drinking water, indebtedness, illiteracy, unemployment, local resource conflicts, less technological development, etc. Here, it is important to recognize that if the phenomenon of climate change is not properly understood and coping strategies such as mitigation and adaptation are not adopted in a timely manner, the impacts of climate change will exacerbate these pre-existing problems.

Therefore, there is a need to explore integration strategies between climate change plans and development plans in the south of the globe. This integration must include principles such as social justice and equity, the inclusion of the marginal population in decision-making, participation and the promotion of social cohesion of women. The inclusion of these principles will not only promote climate change mitigation and adaptation, but will also make development more distributive.

The Institute for Development Studies' collaborative research points to the links between adaptation and poverty to help develop a pro-poor adaptation agenda that can inform poverty reduction and climate resilience. Adaptation to climate change will be "ineffective and unfair if it fails to learn from and build on an understanding of the multidimensional and differentiated nature of poverty and vulnerability."[82]​ The poorest countries tend to be the most severely affected by climate change, yet they have reduced assets and capacities with which to adapt. This has led to more activities to integrate adaptation into development and poverty reduction programmes. The rise of adaptation as a development issue has been influenced by concerns around minimizing threats to progress on poverty reduction, particularly the MDGs, and by the injustice of impacts felt most difficult by those who have done the least to contribute to the problem, framing adaptation as an equity and a matter of right.[83]​.

Migration

Recent literature has also presented the concept of migration as a climate change survival mechanism. Climate change push factors are compared with economic or social pull factors: the role of climate change in migration is therefore not a linear cause and effect. Migration often requires potential migrants to have access to social and financial capital, such as support networks in their chosen destination, and funds to move. Often the last adaptive response households will take to environmental factors that threaten their livelihoods, and especially when they resorted to other coping mechanisms they have not been successful. Migration and Climate Change, a UNESCO publication, explores the dynamics of environmental migration and the role of migration as an adaptive response to climate change.[84]​.

Insurance

One method of adaptation to climate change is encouraging individual actions to mitigate, spread, or transfer the risk of damage. Specifically, one of the existing tools is insurance, whether for a general catastrophe or real floods. The idea is to allow reactive options to rebuild communities after the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.[85]​ Although it may be preferable to take a proactive approach to eliminate the cause of the risk, post-damage reactive compensation can be used as a last resort.[86]​ Access to reinsurance can be a way to increase the resilience of cities.[87]​ When there are failures in the private insurance market, the public sector creates residual market mechanisms (RMM) to encourage reducing individual risk by subsidizing premiums.[88]​ One study identified key equity issues for policy considerations:[89]​.

Government-subsidized insurance, such as the United States National Flood Insurance Program, is criticized for providing a perverse incentive to develop properties in hazardous areas, increasing overall risk.[90] This behavioral effect can be counteracted with appropriate land use policies that limit new construction where they are perceived and/or encourage the adoption of damage-resistant building codes to mitigate potential current or future climate risks.[91]

The aggregate of current climate change adaptation programs will not raise enough money to finance climate change adaptation.[92]​ However, there are several programs and proposals to finance climate change adaptation in developing countries. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change runs a program called the Global Environment, which provides some adaptation funding to least developed countries and small island states.[93]​ Under the umbrella of the GEF, the GEF Trust Fund, the Fund for the Least Developed Countries (LDC) and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) operate to carry out climate change adaptation by financing the goals of the GEF.[93]​ Another mechanism has been implemented through the Adaptation Fund, as a result of negotiations during COP15 and COP16, which provides funds for projects that demonstrate additional benefits for adaptation to climate change. There are several financing proposals for climate change adaptation, most of which use official development assistance or ODA.[16]​.

These proposals range from a World Bank program, to proposals involving the auction of carbon allowances, to a global carbon or transportation tax, to offset-based financing.[16] Other proposals suggest the use of market-based mechanisms, rather than ODA, such as the Higher Ground Foundation's Vulnerability Reduction Credit (VRC™)[94]​ or a program similar to the Clean Development Mechanism,[95]​ to raise private money for climate adaptation. climate change. The Copenhagen Accord, the most recent agreement on global climate change, commits countries to send $100 billion a year to developing countries as assistance for climate change mitigation and adaptation through 2020.[96] This agreement was developed, although not linked, could dwarf current amounts dedicated to adaptation in developing countries. This climate change fund is called the 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference Green Climate Fund.[97]​.

Numerosos países, entre ellos Australia, han celebrado consultas y han planeado o iniciado medidas de adaptación. El estado de California también ha publicado un documento titulado "2009 California Clima Adaptación Estrategia Discusión Proyecto" que resume la ciencia más conocida en los impactos del cambio climático en siete sectores específicos y ofrece recomendaciones sobre cómo manejarse contra esas amenazas.[98]​ Las comunidades más pobres también han recibido ayuda para la adaptación al clima en lugares como Bangladés.[99]​[100]​[101]​[102]​.

National Program of Action for Adaptation

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) helps least developed countries (LDCs) identify climate change adaptation needs by funding the development of the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAP). The NAPA is intended to provide LDCs with the opportunity to identify their "urgent and immediate needs" for climate change adaptation.[103]​ As part of the NAP process, LDC government ministries, usually with the assistance of development agencies, assess their countries' vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. They then develop a prioritized list of adaptation projects that will help the country address the adverse effects of climate change. LDCs that submit NAPs to the UNFCCC will be eligible for funding through the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC Fund) for NAP projects. The LDC Fund was designed through the UNFCCC to specifically assist least developed countries as they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.[104] To date, forty-five least developed countries have written and submitted NAPs to the UNFCCC, with Nepal being the last country to submit its NAPA in November 2010.[105] Three more countries (Angola, Myanmar and East Timor) are scheduled to complete their national programs. adaptation for the end of 2011.[106]​.